Final Tony Predictions: Best Actor in a Musical – J. Harrison Ghee Poised to Make History for Nonbinary Actors

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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UPDATED: June 8, 2023

2023 Tony Predictions:
Best Actor in a Musical

Weekly Commentary: In a year with hints of uncertainty lingering over so many races, this one looks pretty clear-cut. The one to beat for lead actor in a musical is “Some Like It Hot” star J. Harrison Ghee, the nonbinary performer nominated for their empathetic, modern take on the role Jack Lemmon played in the film. Ghee rises to the top of a category that also includes their co-star in “Some Like It Hot,” Christian Borle, as well as Ben Platt of “Parade” and Colton Ryan from “New York, New York.”

Josh Groban of “Sweeney Todd” also wins admirers, particularly for his singing of a classic role, and a lot of voters say they’re fond of Brian D’Arcy James and his performance as the Baker in “Into the Woods.” But polling suggests Ghee has the most support here, by a margin wider than most this year.

Gordon Cox’s Picks
Will win: J. Harrison Ghee, “Some Like It Hot”
Could win: Josh Groban, “Sweeney Todd”
Should win: J. Harrison Ghee, “Some Like It Hot”
Should Have Been Nominated: Will Swenson, “A Beautiful Noise”

Clayton Davis’ Picks
Will win: J. Harrison Ghee, “Some Like It Hot”
Could win: Brian D’Arcy James, “Into the Woods”

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Tony Awards predictions in all categories.

The 76th Annual Tony Awards are scheduled for June 11, 2023, at the United Palace in New York City. It will air on CBS and Paramount+ and be produced by Ricky Kirshner and Glenn Weiss, with the latter also serving as the director.

And the Nominees Are:

1. J. Harrison Ghee — “Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre)

2. Josh Groban — “Sweeney Todd” (Lunt-Fontanne Theatre)

3. Brian D’Arcy James — “Into the Woods” (St. James Theatre)

4. Ben Platt — “Parade” (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre)

5. Christian Borle — “Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre)

6. Colton Ryan — “New York, New York” (St. James Theatre)

All Eligible Shows and Performances (Unranked)

• Casey Likes — “Almost Famous” (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre)

• Will Swenson — “A Beautiful Noise: The Neil Diamond Musical” (Broadhurst Theatre)

• Andrew Burnap — “Camelot” (Vivian Beaumont Theater – Lincoln Center Theater)

• Brian D’Arcy James — “Into the Woods” (St. James Theatre)

• Colton Ryan — “New York, New York” (St. James Theatre)

• Ben Platt — “Parade” (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre)

• Christian Borle — “Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre)

• J. Harrison Ghee — “Some Like It Hot” (Shubert Theatre)

• Josh Groban — “Sweeney Todd” (Lunt-Fontanne Theatre)

Tony Awards Predictions Categories

BEST MUSICAL | BEST PLAY | MUSICAL REVIVAL | PLAY REVIVAL | ACTOR (MUSICAL) | ACTOR (PLAY) | ACTRESS (MUSICAL) | ACTRESS (PLAY) | FEATURED ACTOR (MUSICAL) | FEATURED ACTOR (PLAY) | FEATURED ACTRESS (MUSICAL) | FEATURED ACTRESS (PLAY) | DIRECTOR (MUSICAL) | DIRECTOR (PLAY) | ORIGINAL SCORE | MUSICAL BOOK | CHOREOGRAPHY

About the Tony Awards

The Antoinette Perry Award for Excellence in Broadway Theatre, better known as the Tony Awards, is given out annually by the American Theatre Wing and The Broadway League, recognizing excellence in live Broadway theatre. The ceremony, held annually in New York City, was founded by theatre producer and director Brock Pemberton and is named after Antoinette “Tony” Perry, an actress, producer and theatre director who was co-founder of the American Theatre Wing.

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