Tony Award Nomination Predictions 2024: The Shoo-Ins, The Wild Cards And Everything In-Between

Greg Evans
·8 min read
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Close races and sharp elbows are likely when the 2024 Tony Award nominations are announced Tuesday morning. With so many shows opening during the onslaught of the past two weeks, nominators might still be clearing their minds — and maybe taking a moment to eat and breathe — as they ponder and re-ponder the 36 productions that opened on Broadway between April 28, 2023, and April 25, 2024.

Some of the nominations are no-brainers: The much-praised and hugely popular Merrily We Roll Along is a sure bet for all concerned, but what about more polarizing fare? Cabaret, Here Lies Love, Water for Elephants, I’m looking at you.

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A selection of categories will be read live on CBS Mornings at 8:30 am ET, and a full livestream of the announcements will follow at 9 a.m. ET on the official Tony Awards YouTube page.

RELATED: 2024-25 Awards Season Calendar – Dates For Oscars, Tonys, Guilds, BAFTAs, Spirits & More

Here, then, are my predictions and thoughts on the shows that I think will compete for Tonys on June 16, and a few I hope to see make it. (See the entire list of eligible 2023-24 Broadway productions at the bottom of this post.)

BEST MUSICAL

Shaina Taub’s brilliant Suffs, Alicia Keys’ joyous Hell’s Kitchen and the exhilarating Sufjan Stevens-Justin Peck dance-musical hybrid collaboration Illinoise are — or should be — sure bets. I’m less sure about the final two slots, but I’ll go with Days of Wine and Roses, a lovely, low-key but wrenching tale of alcoholism during New York’s Mad Men era. And while Lempicka was an uneven account of the sadly forgotten 20th century artist Tamara Lempicka, it had more than enough moments to join the race.

Wild cards: The Outsiders, Water for Elephants, The Notebook, Harmony

BEST PLAY

Stereophonic — David Adjmi’s brilliant deconstruction of a rock band, a fading musical scene, dying love and, well, a generation enjoying (or not) its last giggly high — likely already has its backstage nomination pass laminated and stuck to a lanyard. Joshua Harmon’s Prayer for the French Republic was a remarkably moving and uncannily relevant family drama about the Holocaust and its everlasting lessons. I can’t imagine two more unlikely competitors for a single award, nor two more shows more equally deserving. Other likely nominees: Jaja’s African Hair Braiding, Mary Jane, and Mother Play.

Wild card: Patriots

BEST MUSICAL REVIVAL

An easy category to pick: Merrily We Roll Along is the top choice (and likely Tony winner), followed by The Who’s Tommy, the so-so-received but much-hyped Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club, the fan favorite Gutenberg! and the nostalgic The Wiz all in line for a shot. Six months ago I’d have said Monty Python’s Spamalot was a lock, but lackluster box office has me lamenting the state of a youth that doesn’t worship at the altar of Python.

BEST PLAY REVIVAL

Appropriate and Purlie Victorious are as close to sure things as nominations get, while star power should work magic for shows that weren’t as universally acclaimed: An Enemy of the People had Jeremy Strong and Michael Imperioli, Uncle Vanya stars Steve Carell and Alfred Molina, and Doubt featured Liev Schreiber and Amy Ryan.

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE (MUSICAL)

Jonathan Groff (Merrily We Roll Along) and Brian D’Arcy James (Days of Wine and Roses) are locks, as is Eddie Redmayne (Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club). I’d add Andrew Rannells (Gutenberg!) and Ali Louis Bourzgui (Tommy) as well. I wasn’t overly fond of Redmayne’s twitchy performance and would be just as pleased with Casey Likes (Back to the Future) or Grant Gustin (Water for Elephants).

ACTOR IN A LEADING ROLE (PLAY)

Leslie Odom Jr. (Purlie Victorious) is a sure thing, with Jeremy Strong (An Enemy of the People), Steve Carell (Uncle Vanya), Liev Schreiber (Doubt) and Michael Stuhlbarg (Patriots) likely to make the cut. My preference would be William Jackson Harper (Uncle Vanya) over anyone but Odom.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE (MUSICAL)

Kelli O’Hara was sublime in Days of Wine and Roses, and Maleah Joi Moon gave a Broadway debut to remember in Hell’s Kitchen. Shaina Taub is a delight in Suffs, tender and tough by equal turns. Gayle Rankin is likely to get a nom for her controversial turn as Sally Bowles in Cabaret, and Eden Espinosa offered up a good old-fashioned belter of a performance in Lempicka.

Wild card: Eva Noblezada was the bright spot in an otherwise misguided The Great Gatsby, but afraid she’s rowing against the stream this time around.

ACTRESS IN A LEADING ROLE (PLAY)

Sarah Paulson is a shoo-in for Appropriate, as are Rachel McAdams (Mary Jane), Jessica Lange (Mother Play) and Betsy Aidem (Prayer for the French Republic). Amy Ryan could squeak in for Doubt, after having taken over for an ailing Tyne Daly.

Wild cards: Tatiana Maslany and Laurie Metcalf (Grey House)

ACTOR IN A FEATURED ROLE (MUSICAL)

Daniel Radcliffe is a lock for Merrily, and Steven Skybell gave the most likable performance in Cabaret as the Jewish merchant Herr Schultz. Brandon Victor Dixon was unforgettable despite limited stage time in Hell’s Kitchen, and Michael Urie was the single funniest performer in a very funny Spamalot. I’m also predicting Paul Alexander Nolan for Water for Elephants, but I’d rather see Ben Cook take the spot for his wrenching turn in Illinoise.

ACTOR IN A FEATURED ROLE (PLAY)

Corey Stoll (Appropriate), Michael Imperioli (An Enemy of the People) and Eli Gelb (Stereophonic) seem more than likely, and while I suspect Will Keen, who played Putin in Patriots, and Alfred Molina (Uncle Vanya) will land noms, I’d rather see the Stereophonic duo of Will Brill and Tom Pecinka in those slots.

ACTRESS IN A FEATURED ROLE (MUSICAL)

I’ll go with Linsday Mendez, Merrily We Roll Along; Bebe Neuwirth, Cabaret; Shoshanna Bean, Hell’s Kitchen; Nikki M. James, Suffs; and Leslie Rodriguez Kritzer, Monty Python’s Spamalot.

Wild cards: Kecia Lewis, Hell’s Kitchen; Jenn Colella, Suffs; and Amber Iman, Lempicka

ACTRESS IN A FEATURED ROLE (PLAY)

Kara Young, Purlie Victorious; Sarah Pidgeon, Stereophonic; Celia Kenan-Bolger, Mother Play; Francis Benhamou, Prayer for the French Republic; Juliana Canfield, Stereophonic.

Wild cards: Brittany Adebumola (Jaja’s African Hair Braiding); Nancy Robinette (Prayer for the French Republic); Brenda Wehle (Mary Jane); Zenzi Williams (Jaja’s African Hair Braiding)

BEST BOOK

Suffs, Shaina Taub; Hell’s Kitchen, Kristoffer Diaz; Illinoise, Justin Peck, Jackie Sibblies Drury; Days of Wine and Roses, Adam Guettel; Lempicka, Carson Kreitzer

BEST SCORE*

Suffs, music and lyrics by Shaina Taub; Days of Wine and Roses, music and lyrics by Adam Guettel; Here Lies Love, music by David Byrne and Fatboy Slim, lyrics by Byrne; Stereophonic, Will Butler; Lempicka, music by Matt Gould and lyrics by Carson Kreitzer.
*Neither The Who’s Tommy nor Sufjan Stevens’ Illinoise is eligible in the Score category.

BEST CHOREOGRAPHY

Justin Peck, Illinoise; Julia Cheng, Cabaret; Lorin Latarro, The Who’s Tommy; Camille A. Brown, Hell’s Kitchen; Jaquel Knight, The Wiz

DIRECTOR (PLAY)
Lila Neugebauer, Appropriate; Kenny Leon, Purlie Victorious; Daniel Aukin, Stereophonic; Sam Gold, An Enemy of the People; Whitney White, Jaja’s African Hair Braiding

DIRECTOR (MUSICAL)

Maria Friedman, Merrily We Roll Along; Des McAnuff, The Who’s Tommy; Rebecca Frecknali, Cabaret; Leigh Silverman, Suffs; Justin Peck, Illinoise

The 77th annual Tony Awards, hosted by Ariana DeBose, will air live on CBS starting at 8 p.m. ET/5 PT on Sunday, June 16, from the David H. Koch Theater at Lincoln Center for the Performing Arts in New York City. It will stream on Paramount+ in the U.S. The live broadcast will be preceded by a streaming preshow on Pluto TV at which some awards will be handed out.

COMPLETE LIST OF ELIGIBLE SHOWS FOR 2023-24 BROADWAY SEASON:

Grey House (Lyceum Theatre)
Once Upon a One More Time (Marquis Theatre)
Here Lies Love (Broadway Theatre)
The Cottage (Hayes Theater)
Back to the Future: The Musical (Winter Garden Theatre)
The Shark Is Broken (John Golden Theatre)
Purlie Victorious: A Non-Confederate Romp Through the Cotton Patch (Music Box Theatre)
Jaja’s African Hair Braiding (Samuel J. Friedman Theatre)
Merrily We Roll Along (Hudson Theatre)
Gutenberg! The Musical! (James Earl Jones Theatre)
I Need That (Todd Haimes Theatre)
Harmony (Ethel Barrymore Theatre)
Spamalot (St. James Theatre)
How to Dance in Ohio (Belasco Theatre)
Appropriate (Belasco Theatre)
Prayer for the French Republic (Samuel J. Friedman Theatre)
Days of Wine and Roses (Studio 54)
Doubt (Todd Haimes Theatre)
The Notebook (Gerald Schoenfeld Theatre)
An Enemy of the People (Circle in the Square Theatre)
Water for Elephants (Imperial Theatre)
The Who’s Tommy (Nederlander Theatre)
The Outsiders (Bernard B. Jacobs Theatre)
Lempicka (Longacre Theatre)
The Wiz (Marquis Theatre)
Suffs (Music Box Theatre)
Stereophonic (John Golden Theatre)
Hell’s Kitchen (Shubert Theatre)
Cabaret at the Kit Kat Club (August Wilson Theatre)
The Heart of Rock and Roll (James Earl Jones Theatre)
Patriots (Ethel Barrymore Theatre)
Mary Jane (Samuel J. Friedman Theatre)
Illinoise (St. James Theatre)
Uncle Vanya (Vivian Beaumont Theater)
The Great Gatsby (Broadway Theatre)
Mother Play (Hayes Theater)

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