‘Thor: Love and Thunder’ to Hold Top Spot in 2nd Box Office Weekend, But Could Suffer Another Steep Drop for Marvel

Jeremy Fuster
·4 min read
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There won’t be anything stopping Marvel Studios’ “Thor: Love and Thunder” from taking the No. 1 spot again at the box office, as this weekend’s new releases “Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank” and “Where the Crawdads Sing” aren’t expected to open above $10 million.

That said, “Love and Thunder” isn’t looking like it will have a particularly strong hold at the box office. After grossing $13.6 million on Tuesday for a running $170 million domestic total, “Thor 4” is estimated for a $50-55 million second weekend, which would be a drop of 62-65% from its $144 million opening. (Wednesday figures weren’t available at the time of publishing.)

While that’s in line with the holds that post-shutdown Marvel films have demonstrated, including the 67% drop of May’s “Doctor Strange in the Multiverse of Madness,” it would be a lower second weekend than “Jurassic World: Dominion,” which opened to $145 million last month and fell 59% to $59.1 million in its second weekend.

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Barring stronger holds in the film’s later weeks in August, when fewer films will be released, “Thor: Love and Thunder” will likely finish with a domestic total of around $325 million, slightly above the $315 million total of “Thor: Ragnarok” in winter 2017. It may be the last film to top $300 million domestic until the next Marvel movie, “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever,” arrives on November 11.

Meanwhile, Paramount will release the animated film “Paws of Fury: The Legend of Hank” in approximately 3,400 locations while Sony will release the Reese Witherspoon-produced bestseller adaptation “Where the Crawdads Sing” in 3,625 locations. Both films are projected for openings of $9-10 million.

“Paws of Fury” was produced on a $45 million budget, but Paramount has a lower break-even point than that as it acquired the movie for $10 million from GFM Animation. Paramount has used Nickelodeon as the core of its marketing on the film, heavily promoting on the kids network and its digital platforms.

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“Paws of Fury” should be able to post a modest profit given its acquisition status, though its shelf life in theaters will likely be short given heavy competition from the currently running “Minions: The Rise of Gru” and Warner Bros.’ “DC League of Super Pets,” which comes out in two weeks. Early reviews have the film’s Rotten Tomatoes score at 50%.

“Where the Crawdads Sing” is a similarly low-risk title for Sony with a $24 million production budget. Based on Delia Owens’ 2018 novel about an outcast young girl accused of murdering the local football hero who attempted to rape her, the film is the first since “Downton Abbey: A New Era” two months ago to market to a primarily female audience. Reviews have been generally negative with a 37% Rotten Tomatoes score.

Speaking of “Downton Abbey,” that film’s distributor, Focus Features, will return with another title appealing to older female audiences with “Mrs. Harris Goes to Paris,” an eOne acquisition starring Lesley Manville as a British housekeeper who travels to Paris to fulfill her dream of owning a Dior dress. “Harris” will get a much smaller release than “Downton Abbey” at 978 theaters.

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Also opening in limited release is Netflix’s “The Gray Man,” an action thriller starring Chris Evans and Ryan Gosling with the “Avengers: Endgame” team of directors Joe and Anthony Russo and writers Christopher Markus and Stephen McFeely behind the camera.

With a $200 million budget, “The Gray Man” stands alongside the Ryan Reynolds/Dwayne Johnson/Gal Gadot film “Red Notice” as Netflix’s most expensive film, yet the streamer is still eschewing a full theatrical release and instead giving it a one-week theatrical engagement before releasing it on streaming on July 22. The film will be released in 450 theaters, including a large portion of Cinemark’s national circuit and theaters like the Landmark Westwood in Los Angeles. Netflix doesn’t report box office numbers on its films.

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