Will third time be the charm for Robert Downey, Jr. at the Oscars?

Robert Downey Jr. has quickly become the Oscars frontrunner for Best Supporting Actor for his transformative turn in Christopher Nolan‘s acclaimed biopic “Oppenheimer.” This Universal blockbuster chronicles how Cillian Murphy‘s titular scientist J. Robert Oppenheimer created the atomic bomb. Emily Blunt features as Oppenheimer’s wife, Kitty, while Downey Jr. portrays his political foe Lewis Strauss. Third time should prove to be the charm for this charmer. That got us thinking about his first two Oscar races.

Downey Jr. was first nominated in 1993 for Best Actor for “Chaplin.” Another biopic, he played the titular role of the cinematic legend Charlie Chaplin. Directed by Richard Attenborough, the film recounts Chaplin’s incredible life and career from his poverty-stricken childhood to his worldwide acclaim. Downey Jr. turned in a pitch-perfect performance, nailing the accent, mannerisms, and expressions of the great man and receiving acclaim of his own along the way. He won several awards from various critics groups including the London crowd. It was over in the UK, Chaplin’s home country, where he found his biggest precursor success. He won the BAFTA for Best Actor, edging out Tim Robbins (“The Player”), Stephen Rea (“The Crying Game”), and Britain’s own Daniel Day-Lewis (“The Last of the Mohicans”).

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The SAG awards weren’t around back then (they were founded in 1995) but Downey Jr. did secure a Golden Globe nomination for Best Drama Actor. However, it was Al Pacino who won that prize, for “Scent of a Woman.” This precursor success led to Downey Jr.’s Best Actor bid at the 1993 Academy Awards, where he was nominated alongside Pacino, Rea, Clint Eastwood (“Unforgiven”), and Denzel Washington (“Malcolm X”). It was Pacino who won the Oscar, an award he was long overdue after seven prior losses. Many believe that Pacino won more because he was overdue some Oscars love rather than the performance itself. If Pacino had won for, say, “The Godfather” or “Serpico,” perhaps voters wouldn’t have felt so obliged to vote for him for “Scent of a Woman,” which could have opened it up for Downey Jr., who seemed to be next on the list that year. Still, it went down as a loss for Downey Jr.

Downey Jr.’s next Oscar nomination came after his comeback — in 2009. This one was for a wildly different film — Ben Stiller‘s outrageous Hollywood satire “Tropic Thunder,” which follows a group of self-obsessed actors shooting a huge war movie in Vietnam becoming the soldiers they are supposed to be playing. Stiller stars as the film’s lead, an action movie star trying to do something more serious and save his career, while Tom Cruise delights as a sweary film producer and Matthew McConaughey features as a dedicated agent. But it’s Downey Jr. who is the star of the show here, playing a method actor so obsessed with becoming his character that he undergoes skin pigmentation surgery to play a Black soldier. Controversial to some, it cannot be denied that Downey Jr. utterly disappears into the role. This, combined with head-scratchingly-good accent work and terrific comedic timing led to awards attention once more for Downey Jr.

Again, he earned the acclaim of many critics groups, which culminated in a Best Supporting Actor nomination at the Critics Choice Awards. He was nominated alongside Heath Ledger (“The Dark Knight”), Philip Seymour Hoffman (“Doubt”), and “Milk” duo Josh Brolin and James Franco. Ledger won posthumously.

Downey Jr. also secured a bid from the Golden Globes, where he was nominated alongside his co-star, Cruise. Seymour Hoffman and Ledger were also nominated while “The Duchess” player Ralph Fiennes also got in. Again, Ledger won.

Downey Jr. continued his impressive precursor run with bids at both BAFTA and SAG, meaning he got in at all four major Oscar precursors. He was actually only one of three actors to do this for Best Supporting Actor this year. The other two were Ledger and Seymour Hoffman, who both got in at both BAFTA and SAG.

BAFTA also chose to nominate Brad Pitt (“Burn After Reading”) and Brendan Gleeson (“In Bruges”). SAG voters went with Brolin and Dev Patel (“Slumdog Millionaire”). Ledger won both awards, as he continued his expected sweep.

This meant that Downey Jr, Seymour Hoffman, and Ledger were all locks come Oscar nomination time and that proved to be true — all three were nominated. Brolin also got in for “Milk” after Critics Choice and SAG bids while Michael Shannon came completely out of left field to secure a shock nomination for “Revolutionary Road.” Ledger won the Oscar, as expected.

Downey Jr. has never really been on the precipice of another Oscar race, although he did win 2010 Golden Globe for Best Comedy/Musical Actor for “Sherlock Holmes” and this writer led a one-man-band campaign to get him a nomination for “Captain America: Civil War.”

Downey Jr. is the main figure in the Best Supporting Actor Oscar race this year. He has already secured two precursors bids, with nominations from both the Critics Choice Awards and the Golden Globes. Both organizations nominated Charles Melton (“May December”), Ryan Gosling (“Barbie”), Robert De Niro (“Killers of the Flower Moon”), and Mark Ruffalo (“Poor Things”) while the Globes also nominated Ruffalo’s “Poor Things” co-star Willem Dafoe. The Critics Choice Awards gave their sixth nomination slot to “American Fiction” thespian Sterling K. Brown.

We are predicting that Downey Jr. will win both of these precursors and he is also in pole position in our Oscars odds chart for Best Supporting Actor.

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