Your Thanksgiving turkey will probably cost less, despite the bird flu's fall upsurge

Decking out the turkey platter with a store-bought bird is going to be more affordable this Thanksgiving.

The price of whole turkey has been on a month-over-month decline and is approaching recent historical lows ahead of the November holiday, to the benefit of consumers in South Dakota and across the nation.

According to a report from the U.S. Department Agriculture, the price of frozen hens, which are the 8- to 16-pound whole turkeys found in stores, is sitting at 96 cents per pound, while frozen toms, the larger 16- to 24-pound variant, have been priced at 86 to 96 cents per pound as of Nov. 9.

This marks a 41% to 45% price drop and a roughly 48% to 52% cut to costs for each store-bought sizes, respectively, compared to the same time last year.

How much will my Thanksgiving turkey cost?

Turkey prices in the U.S. have been trending downward since late April, when cents per pound for 8- to 16-pound turkeys reached upwards of $1.72.

Data from Livestock Marketing Information Center, an agriculture economics organization, shows the price of 8- to 16-pound whole poults is at or below its average price from 2017 to 2021. Historically, pound-for-pound price comparisons between frozen hens and toms has only varied by a few cents.

In early November 2022, pre-Thanksgiving turkey sold for a high $1.83 — the poultry's highest price in years — causing sticker shock among Americans looking to buy the traditional holiday centerpiece.

Why did turkeys cost more last year?

Highly pathogenic avian influenza was to blame for last year's prices, at least in part. The disease, which migrating wild birds played a large part in spreading to the Corn Belt since it was first reported among poultry, can ravage turkey farms. Producers are usually forced to cull entire flocks when HPAI is detected at a poultry facility to prevent the virus from spreading.

More than 50 million birds were affected by avian influenza in 2022, surpassing the 2014-2015 bird flu outbreak as the deadliest on record. According to USDA's Animal and Plant Health Inspection Service, 62.87 million birds have been impacted since the agency first started tracking detections.

Timing of bird flu in 2023 too late to affect Thanksgiving turkeys

Unlike 2022, however, avian influenza has not been a year-round affair in the U.S. this year. Turkeys usually take 14 weeks to go to market, and there were zero cases of HPAI at American turkey facilities during the crucial July-September poult production window.

USDA's September Livestock, Dairy, and Poultry Outlook reported July turkey production totaled 432.3 million pounds, which was an increase of 9.7% compared to last July but a 7.4% decrease versus the five-year average. Still, higher average weights of 16- to 24-pound toms and improvements in slaughter numbers in July played a part in improving turkey supply for Thanksgiving.

Much of the nation's turkeys were given reprieve from the virulent disease until Oct. 4, when a Jerauld County turkey farm became one of the first facilities in the nation to see a new case of bird flu since April.

This heralded an upsurge in HPAI cases across the Midwest, including South Dakota.

However, much of the industry's whole turkeys had already been prepped to hit store shelves, avoiding an unwanted cut to supply.

This article originally appeared on Sioux Falls Argus Leader: Thanksgiving turkey prices fall in 2023 despite bird flu in SD