Can SZA stop Lil Durk from winning his first Grammy for Best Melodic Rap Performance?

Jaime Rodriguez
·5 min read
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One of the most exciting categories this year at the Grammys is Best Melodic Rap Performance, where there’s one glaring omission: Nicki Minaj and Ice Spice’s “Barbie World.” The big hit from “Barbie” was relegated to Best Rap Song, showing a lack of enthusiasm from voters (who likely voted for it in the songwriting category due to its high alphabetical placement on the ballot). But the song’s miss ended up making the category way more interesting with a couple of hits now duking it out for the win. With big names in the category such as Drake and SZA, let’s consider who will ultimately be crowned the winner come February 4.

Let’s start with the song that has the least chance of a win: Burna Boy and 21 Savage’s “Sittin’ on Top of the World.” While the track was a big hit for Burna, it wasn’t as big as the heavy hitters nominated alongside it, and Burna Boy’s main voting base is likely in the global field and not in rap. It’s also a bit hard to imagine 21 Savage fans will go for this song instead of his other nominated hit, “Spin Bout U,” alongside Drake. That became one of the duo’s biggest hits from their collaborative album “Her Loss.” Ultimately, it topped the mainstream R&B/rap airplay chart, where it spent two weeks at the summit.

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Since Drake and Savage cleaned up in the nominations, earning noms all across the rap field, there’s a case to be made that voters really loved “Her Loss” and that they might just sweep their categories. That said, rap sweeps tend to occur with more acclaimed, culture-shifting albums; even Grammy fave Kendrick Lamar recently failed to sweep the rap field with his album “Mr. Morale and the Big Steppers.” So it’s hard to imagine voters will care that much about “Her Loss” when it was not particularly acclaimed nor is it a general field player like other rap sweepers in the past. And with “Rich Flex” being a sure bet for wins elsewhere, this is where the pair might slip up.

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Then there’s Doja Cat’s “Attention,” which is one of her most unique songs, a hip-hop response to criticism that she’s too pop. “Attention” is actually prime Grammy bait, being old-school-inspired and lyric-based, and that might honestly be enough for it to win. Plus, with an additional nomination for Best Rap Song, it’s clear that voters genuinely like it a lot. That said, there are higher-profile hits in the lineup that might overshadow her.

Lil Durk and J. Cole’s “All My Life” is one of them. It’s the biggest hit nominated here. The track peaked at number-two on the Billboard Hot 100 singles chart, and it ended up as 2023’s third biggest rap song in the US, behind Drake and Savage’s “Rich Flex” and Toosii‘s “Favorite Song.” The track has also been praised for its subject matter about the struggles of growing up in low-income areas and trying to make it out. Plus, J. Cole is a perennial Grammy nominee and a previous winner, so voters respect him. Lil Durk is also a past nominee, and he’s had a big year that voters might want to honor with a win here.

“All My Life’s” lack of a Rap Song nomination here might actually be a positive. The track wasn’t submitted for Best Rap Song, so it wasn’t a snub. And thus, since it’s only nominated in this category, voters who like the song only have this one chance to vote for it, concentrating its support in one place.

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However, a big roadblock for Durk will be this year’s biggest nominee, SZA. Her song “Low” is nominated here, one of an impressive nine nominations she received. Granted, “Low” is an album track, so its exposure might be more limited than the singles here. But despite that, the song has 371 million streams on Spotify alone, and considering everyone has heard “SOS” at this point, exposure might not be much of an issue.

The nomination alone is impressive. SZA isn’t known as a rapper, and this category’s ballot was alphabetical by artist name, so “Low” would have been quite low on it, no pun intended. That means voters probably actively searched for SZA here, showing how much support she truly has. And much like “All My Life,” the song was only submitted in this category, so there might be a lot of support for it concentrated here.

Ultimately, it might come down to Durk vs. SZA, and the result will depend on how much love SZA is about to get from the recording academy. My gut is telling me “All My Life” will win due to its subject matter and the fact that it’s more of a traditional rap song than “Low” is, but there’s definitely a strong case for a SZA overperformance come Grammy night.

Will win: Lil Durk and J. Cole, “All My Life”
Could win: SZA, “Low”
Dark horse: Drake and 21 Savage, “Spin Bout U”

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