Symone Sanders-Townsend Shares 4 Things Everyone Should Pay Attention to This Election Year (Exclusive)

The former Biden strategist, who was tapped to co-host MSNBC's new politics show "The Weekend," tells PEOPLE which key election variables might determine our next president

In United States politics "unprecedented" has become the norm, and the 2024 presidential election appears to be no exception. MSNBC's Symone Sanders-Townsend — who served as a senior adviser to Joe Biden's 2020 campaign — has been following the race closely from day one, looking for any clues as to how things might shake out in the chaotic months ahead.

The upcoming election and its implications for American democracy will be a central focus of Sanders-Townsend's new politics show, The Weekend, which she'll co-host alongside Alicia Menendez and Michael Steele. But before she turns her focus to the show's premiere on Saturday morning, PEOPLE caught up with her directly to get her thoughts on this hard-to-predict election season.

Sanders-Townsend told PEOPLE the top four things she's keeping an eye on in 2024: Biden's campaign messaging, Trump's stealthy primary strategy, whether Black women show up for Biden again, and how anti-Trump Republicans react if he gets the GOP nomination.

Below, she answers our questions about each — and explains why they're so important.

You were on the campaign trail with Biden in 2020 when he successfully appealed to voters' concerns with then-President Trump. How has his campaign messaging shifted this time around, and what does it mean for a possible 2024 rematch?

In 2020, Biden’s main theme of his campaign — known as the theory of the case — was the “battle for the soul of the nation.” In 2024, President Biden seems to have amended that theory of the case to “preserving and strengthening democracy.”

The Biden campaign released their first ad of 2024 where President Biden noted he has made the preservation of our democracy the “central issue of his presidency” and “all of us are being asked right now, 'What will we do to maintain our democracy?'”

One day after this ad was released, Biden marked the third anniversary of the insurrection at the capitol on January 6th with a campaign speech at Valley Forge further teasing out his democracy message. Flanked by a sea of American flags, Biden sought to draw a contrast using Trump’s own words about destroying the Constitution and revenge if he is reelected. Biden declared “your freedom is on the ballot,” citing choice and voting rights, and noted “the alternative to democracy is dictatorship.”

Related: President Biden Denounces Donald Trump and MAGA 'Extremism' in Rare Primetime Address

So many questions: How will this amended theory of the case play out with voters? Is this a message that will resonate with some Republican primary voters or is this the opening salvo for a general election message only? How does the democracy argument sound to the base voters of the Democratic Party — especially some Black voters who may feel “democracy” never truly benefited them in the first place?

You've said that Trump has been working to reshape the GOP delegation in the 2024 primaries. What has that looked like, and how could it help him clinch the Republican nomination?

Former President Trump has spent a lot of time working to get rules changed around delegates and what’s needed to accomplish a nomination. Delegates are important because hitting a magic number of delegates is how one becomes the Republican or Democratic nominee.

To be the Republican nominee in 2024, a candidate needs 1,235 delegates. Some of the Trump campaign’s efforts include Trump spending a lot of time schmoozing with state party chairs like the chair of the Nevada Republican party who — after having dinner with Trump — made a lot of changes to the way Republicans run their nominating contest in the state. One of those changes: This year the Nevada Republican Party is hosting a caucus, and made candidates choose between participating in their caucus or the Nevada secretary of state–run primary. Caucuses benefit candidates with some of the most dedicated supporters — like Trump.

Trump’s campaign also pushed for changes in California’s primary process this year, and they are quite significant. California previously had what was known as “proportional delegate allocation,” which means candidates were awarded delegates depending on how well they did in each district. So, a candidate could come in second or third overall, but still receive a sizable number of delegates that could make a difference. Well, this year, the California Republican Party changed their system to a winner-take-all allocation. This means the overall winner of the primary (as long as they get over 50%) takes all of the delegates. There are 169 delegates up for grabs in California on Super Tuesday (the most of any state in the country) and Donald Trump is polling well above 55% in the primary.

Related: Chris Christie Caught on Hot Mic Saying Nikki Haley Will ‘Get Smoked’ by Trump: ‘She’s Not Up for This’

Given these changes and more, will Donald Trump — who is currently facing 91 felony charges across 4 criminal cases — have enough delegates by March 5th that no other candidate in the race would be able to catch up?

Trump’s campaign has his serious legal situation on their mind and are organizing allies within the Republican National Committee’s Rules and Bylaws Committee to make sure there aren’t any rules proposed or passed at convention that could bar Trump from officially being the nominee. Rules such as “the nominee cannot be facing felony charges, have been indicted or convicted.”

Primary elections for president are not piecemeal folks. You have to take the first batch of states as a set and factor in Super Tuesday. What happens in Iowa affects what happens in New Hampshire and what happens in Nevada and South Carolina can dictate a sea of change on Super Tuesday. How will the landscape change between now and March 5th?

Related: Michigan Supreme Court Allows Trump to Stay on Primary Ballot After Colorado Disqualifies Him from Race

Black women played a key role in getting Biden to the White House. Should we expect the same level of support in November?

Ninety-five percent of Black women cast ballots in favor of Joe Biden in the 2020 presidential election. This year, Black women leaders across the country are collectively concerned about turnout in the 2024 election and they are sounding the alarm for the Biden campaign.

A November 2023 NBC News poll found 61% of Black voters approve of Biden, versus 34% who say they disapprove of the president. When it comes to Black women specifically, like other groups of voters, their top issues range from the economy to health care including reproductive freedom.

Related: Why Joe Biden's Surprising Georgia Lead Has So Many People Talking About Stacey Abrams

Disproportionately, Black women continue to face economic hardship and in a recent survey, 71% of Black women said they feel they live paycheck to paycheck. In an economy that is doing well, but where many voters are still feeling the squeeze of higher prices, these numbers matter as do the candidates’ work to address these and many other issues.

Will Black women overwhelmingly decide to cast ballots for the Republican nominee for president in 2024? That seems very unlikely, but a real possibility is Black women could decide not to participate in 2024 at 2020 levels. President Biden cannot win reelection without the totality of his 2020 coalition. So how will the Biden campaign seek to communicate the real economic wins of the Biden administration to Black women under the democracy frame? It's doable and I will be watching!

Related: MSNBC's Symone Sanders Shares the Advice Kamala Harris Gave Her When She Left Politics

You're keeping an eye on the Cassidy Hutchinsons of the GOP — the never-Trump Republicans who feel strongly that our last president was a threat to democracy. What options do they have, if Trump keeps up this lead in the Republican primaries?

There have been many members of the Republican Party who voted for Trump in 2016 but did not support him in 2020. They won’t vote for Trump, but who are they going to vote for in the primaries and in the general election?

Cassidy Hutchinson, the former Trump White House aide who courageously testified before the January 6th Committee, told my colleague Joy Reid in December, “If Trump is elected, this will be the last election under our constitution.” Hutchinson isn’t out campaigning for President Biden just yet, but she has said this:

"I will say that my door is completely shut to voting for Donald Trump … And the only reason that I will not endorse a candidate right now is because I still am hopeful that Donald Trump does not end up being the nominee next year … But what I will say, too, though, is I think everybody should vote for Joe Biden if they want our democracy to survive.”

That is an endorsement!

Related: Cassidy Hutchinson Refuses to Respond to Donald Trump’s Insults: ‘Being Ignored Drives Him Mad’ (Exclusive)

Then you have folks like Former New Jersey Gov. Chris Christie. Christie, the most notable former supporter of Trump who regularly provided the most salient and poignant criticism of Trump in the 2024 primary, dropped out of the race on Jan. 11. He notably did not endorse any of his former opponents and said anyone who is unwilling to say "Trump is unfit to serve as president" is unfit to be president themselves — a knock on just about everyone else still left in the primary. Christie, though, did not endorse Biden in his speech. Maybe President Biden will call him and we will see him at the Democratic National Convention in Chicago this summer?

All in all, Republicans who now are hopping off the Trump train have a decision to make about what they will do if Donald Trump is their party’s nominee this year. Are they concerned enough about a second Trump presidency to put country over party and vote for Joe Biden? Will they make the calculation Cassidy Hutchinson and Liz Cheney have made? That they may disagree with Biden on policy, but democracy is more important? There are two viable political parties in this country, will they pick a side?

MSNBC's The Weekend, hosted by Symone Sanders-Townsend, Alicia Menendez and Michael Steele, premieres Saturday, Jan. 13 — two days before the consequential Iowa caucus. The new program will air 8 a.m. to 10 a.m. ET on Saturdays and Sundays.

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