Stay or go: Predicting the top Saints unrestricted free agents in 2022

There’s another challenging offseason ahead for the New Orleans Saints. They’ve got to shed tens of millions of negative salary cap space again, and then start to work on re-signing some of their pending free agents. And they’ve got a crop of unrestricted free agents-to-be who are headed for the open market, which brings more hurdles than the restricted and exclusive-rights free agents New Orleans must deal with (check here for the full list of expiring contracts).

Obviously some of these unrestricted free agents are more high-profile than others. Entrenched starters like Terron Armstead and Marcus Williams are on deck, as are key backups like P.J. Williams, Kwon Alexander, and Tre’Quan Smith. And what’s to be done with Jameis Winston?

It’s early, but here is where I’m leaning on which of the top Saints unrestricted free agents will stay or go in 2022:

OT Terron Armstead: Go

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The Saints have already signed Ryan Ramczyk to a top-level extension and they’ve got James Hurst on a low-cost deal filled with incentives if he’s starting. So they’re already prepared to move on from Armstead. Injuries limiting him to his fewest snaps played since the 2016 season should just make that decision easier. Armstead deserves a top-tier contract of his own, but between their earlier moves and their own salary cap situation, I don’t anticipate the Saints being the ones to pay it. Doesn’t it make sense for Armstead to join Trey Hendrickson and Vonn Bell while protecting Joe Burrow’s blind side for the Cincinnati Bengals?

S Marcus Williams: Stay

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The Saints didn’t break the glass cover on the franchise tag last year for nothing — losing Williams was seen as an emergency, and they took a major step to avoid it. Now they’re back where they started, but with maybe less leverage after Williams continued to excel, and now his agent can point at that gesture as proof of Williams’ value to the team. It won’t be cheap, and they may need to use the franchise tag again to buy more time in negotiations (as the Denver Broncos did last summer with safety Justin Simmons), but Williams should be re-signed on a multiyear contract comparable to the deals Ramczyk and Marshon Lattimore got, which paid them both like top-three players at their positions.

QB Jameis Winston: Stay

AP Photo/Derick Hingle

He’ll have other offers from teams with more money to spend than the Saints in free agency, but a third year in New Orleans could be the charm for Winston. He showed enough to warrant a longer look, once healthy, and with a better supporting cast around him. I still expect the Saints to look for an upgrade. That just may be tough to find in a bare market crowded with buyers and with few appealing prospects in this year’s draft. If any big names — Aaron Rodgers, Russell Wilson, and I guess Derek Carr, Kirk Cousins, or Jimmy Garoppolo — end up moving, it’s tough to see how the Saints could outbid their competition. Re-signing Winston would be the most cost-effective move.

DB P.J. Williams: Go

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He’s played on a couple of low-money, one-year deals and now it’s time for Williams to go secure the bag with what should be his biggest NFL payday. Williams has earned that by successfully transitioning to a dynamic role at safety in New Orleans’ dime personnel package, getting looks all over the field in two-high coverages while consistently making open-field tackles and even racking up pressures as a pass rusher. He deserves a long-term contract somewhere, and he’s exactly the sort of depth player you’d hope the Saints can hold onto. It’s just going to be tough to do that with so many bigger problems to address. I hope they can cut a deal, but I’m not optimistic. If Williams does move on, they could help replace him with other backups like Bradley Roby or maybe a draft pick.

LB Kwon Alexander: Go

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Alexander will be looking for a big payout in free agency after playing on a minimum salary last season. He probably won’t find anything close to the four-year, $54 million deal he signed with the San Francisco 49ers a couple offseasons ago, but he’s earned a starter’s contract and should be paid accordingly. Can the Saints afford to keep him at, say, $7 million to $10 million a year with Pete Werner and Zack Baun behind him on rookie contracts? Werner specifically played really well in his first season and deserves a bigger role. Letting Alexander walk and putting a younger, talented player in a bigger spot would be smart. On the other hand, Alexander has been key for keeping the defense’s energy up and it would hurt to break up his tandem with Demario Davis. You can’t keep everyone, and he feels like a player who could get priced out given the situation around him.

WR Tre'Quan Smith: Go

AP Photo/Brynn Anderson

I wouldn’t be mad if Smith returned for another year. Injuries really made a difference in 2021, a year in which he was expected to take on a leading role after putting in a lot of work over the summer with Winston, and he could probably be re-signed at a minimum salary. But it also feels like Smith’s time in New Orleans has run its course, and he could be ready for a change of scenery. He’d benefit from ranking third or fourth on the depth chart somewhere rather than being first or second in New Orleans, depending on who’s available each week, and facing coverage from lesser opponents because of it. At the same time, if Michael Thomas comes back and Marquez Callaway and Deonte Harty continue to improve, keeping Smith aboard while adding upgrades to the position makes sense. It’s just clear at this point he can’t handle a role in the regular starting lineup.

Conclusion

Doesn’t this feel like another season where the Saints will let some players (Terron Armstead, Kwon Alexander) go and elevate backups in their spots, angling for more compensatory draft picks in the next cycle? We’ve seen them shell out big-money contracts before, and that should be in consideration for some of their free agents (Marcus Williams), but there are other situations where they could be priced out given the envisioned role (P.J. Williams). And it’s possible they feel some guys didn’t get a fair shake in 2021 and could really benefit from the opportunity in a do-over (Jameis Winston, Tre’Quan Smith). Each situation is unique, and the Saints’ decision-makers surely feel different about them than you or me. It’ll be fascinating to track each storyline in the months ahead.

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