State of the Emmys race: Watch out ‘Shōgun,’ ‘Baby Reindeer’ is coming on strong
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Hours before its final episode aired on Tuesday, April 23, FX’s “Shōgun” officially became Gold Derby’s predicted 2024 Best Limited Series Emmy winner, replacing the same network’s “Fargo.” This development has been brewing since late March, when our editors broke from the crowd by collectively making “Shōgun” their top choice in the category. Now, they are leading the charge for a fresh contender that is already threatening the new frontrunner’s path to victory.
Less than three weeks after its full series premiere, Netflix’s “Baby Reindeer” stands as one of the streamer’s most popular 2024 programs with over 150 million global viewing hours and counting. Since being added to our predictions center last Monday, the buzzy, seven-part show has shot up in the main limited series race, surpassing Netflix’s “Ripley” and ultimately bumping Apple TV+’s “Masters of the Air” out of the forecasted lineup derived from the predictions of 2,000+ Gold Derby users.
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Our editors indeed beat all of our other predictor groups to the punch when it came to backing “Baby Reindeer” for a program nomination and are currently the only subset expecting it to pick up acting bids for both Richard Gadd (lead) and Jessica Gunning (supporting). Gunning did replace Fiona Shaw (“True Detective: Night Country”) as a generally predicted nominee over the weekend, but Gadd has yet to similarly break through.
As much as “Baby Reindeer” has surged, it’s still being held back by the fact that our panel of experts aren’t quite on board with it. As a group, they remain more focused on “Masters of the Air” and “Ripley” and are still championing supporting female candidate Andrea Riseborough (“The Regime”), who is in at least ninth place everywhere else.
Gunning’s sudden inclusion in our overall predicted Best TV Movie/Limited Series Supporting Actress lineup spells a bit of trouble for “Shōgun,” the featured cast members of which have yet to gain the requisite support of our readers. That may soon change, however, given that Moeka Hoshi, Fumi Nikaido, and Tadanobu Asano have consistently improved upon their odds since the beginning of April.
No one moved in or out of our predicted comedy or drama acting lineups within the past week, but it’s worth noting that Larry David (“Curb Your Enthusiasm”) and Hannah Einbinder (“Hacks”) rose in the ranks, with the latter now in second place behind comedy supporting actress frontrunner Meryl Streep (“Only Murders in the Building”). Limited series performers who moved closer to the top of their categories this week include Anna Sawai (“Shōgun”), Juno Temple (“Fargo”), and Treat Williams (“Feud: Capote vs. The Swans”).
Be on the lookout for new state of the Emmys race updates every Tuesday leading up to the nominations announcement on July 17.
Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?
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