State of the Emmys race: ‘Shōgun’ storms into the drama categories

Last Thursday, FX confirmed that its adaptation of James Clavell’s “Shōgun” will continue past its first season and thus compete as a drama series rather than a limited one at the upcoming Emmys. Since it had spent the preceding three weeks as Gold Derby’s predicted Best Limited Series winner and was expected to reap several acting nominations, every drama and limited race was shaken up by its reclassification – and the dust still has not settled.

Within 48 hours of the “Shōgun” shift, our 2,500+ Emmy predictors came to the consensus that it will be nominated for Best Drama Series and all of the corresponding main acting awards. Even lead actor Cosmo Jarvis and supporting actress Moeka Hoshi, who never quite managed to reach predicted nominee status before, quickly broke into our forecasted drama lineups. Jarvis and his seemingly more secure lead male costar, Hiroyuki Sanada, displaced both Tom Hiddleston (“Loki”) and Walton Goggins (“Fallout”).

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At first, “Shōgun” forced “Fallout” out of our predicted drama series lineup, but the Prime Video show soon bounced back at the expense of Netflix’s “3 Body Problem.” Lead “Shōgun” actress Anna Sawai knocked out Maya Erskine (“Mr. & Mrs. Smith”), while Hoshi and her featured male cast mate, Tadanobu Asano, respectively replaced Nicole Beharie (“The Morning Show”) and Ke Huy Quan (“Loki”).

As a result of “Shōgun” switching lanes, all but a few of the other drama series and acting contenders ended up with longer odds than they had a week ago. Included among those now faced with overcoming 100/1 odds are programs “Hijack,” “Sugar,” and “Ahsoka” and performers Ella Purnell (“Fallout”), Timothy Olyphant (“Justified: City Primeval”), and Julianna Margulies (“The Morning Show”).

Naturally, this major development has had no negative impact on the remaining limited series candidates. With “Shōgun” out of the way, “Fargo” has reclaimed its status as the show to beat in the main category, which is now generally expected to include “Ripley.” Naomi Watts (“Feud: Capote vs. The Swans”), Tony Shalhoub (“Mr. Monk’s Last Case”), and Hugh Grant (“The Regime”) filled the slots left by Sawai, Sanada, and Asano.

Another of this week’s new predicted nominees is Nava Mau (“Baby Reindeer”), who takes the place of Chloë Sevigny (“Feud”) on the Best TV Movie/Limited Series Supporting Actress list. Mau’s costar, Jessica Gunning, jumped from fifth to third place in the same category, while “Baby Reindeer” itself passed “True Detective: Night Country” on its way to the top of our Best Limited Series ranking.

It’s also well worth noting that Lily Gladstone (“Under the Bridge”) pulled ahead of Sevigny and that the former’s cast mate and potential direct competitor, Riley Keough, just rose above her previous 100/1 odds. Additionally, our predicted Best TV Movie top five now includes “Scoop” rather than “No One Will Save You,” reflecting an opinion our editors and experts have held for weeks.

Be on the lookout for new state of the Emmys race updates every Tuesday leading up to the nominations announcement on July 17.

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