State of the Emmys race: ‘Shōgun’ surges, ‘Fargo’ finds its footing

Matthew Stewart
·3 min read
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The number of Gold Derby readers predicting the 2024 Primetime Emmy nominations in 16 major categories has risen above 2,000 even with the nominations announcement still three months away. Our predicted lineups have changed significantly within the last week alone, indicating increased support for some programs and greater apathy toward others.

Four new predicted acting nominees have emerged since April 1. The only one hailing from a continuing series is Theo James (“The Gentlemen”), who grabbed the fifth comedy lead actor spot from Kelsey Grammer (“Frasier”). The other three are TV movie star Tony Shalhoub (“Mr. Monk’s Last Case”) and limited series actresses Anna Sawai (lead; “Shōgun”) and Fiona Shaw (supporting; “True Detective: Night Country”) who displace Michael Douglas (“Franklin”), Naomi Watts (“Feud: Capote vs. The Swans”), and Andrea Riseborough (“The Regime”) respectively.

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“Shōgun” had a great week in general, as it maintained its third place position in the Best Limited Series race and saw four of its actors – Sawai, Hiroyuki Sanada, Cosmo Jarvis, and Fumi Nikaido – improve upon their odds. Nikaido is indeed one of four performers to climb out of the 100/1 odds hole this week, along with fellow supporting players Noah J. Ricketts (movie/limited; “Fellow Travelers”), Amy Ryan (drama; “Sugar”), and J. B. Smoove (comedy; “Curb Your Enthusiasm”). None of those four are predicted nominees yet but might get there if they continue on their current trajectories.

The fourth “True Detective” iteration is now expected to score double featured actress bids, with Kali Reis having just jumped from fourth to second place. Considering all of our predicted winners from a proportional standpoint, series lead Jodie Foster gained the most ground this week, obtaining a 1.22% larger share of her category’s top votes.

Two of the featured females in “Feud”– Calista Flockhart and Diane Lane – are on the rise, with the latter benefitting from “Lessons in Chemistry” actress Aja Naomi King dropping from second to fourth place.

“Fargo” remains the Best Limited Series frontrunner, albeit down by 2%, and two of its actors – lead Juno Temple and featured male Sam Spruell – have better odds than they started with this month.

Although we expect “The Bear” to easily walk away with a series win plus three acting victories for the second year in a row, it must be noted that four predicted nominees from the show – Ayo Edebiri, Ebon Moss-Bachrach, Matty Matheson, and Liza Colon-Zayas – have slightly longer odds than in March. On the other hand, their cast mates Lionel Boyce and Molly Gordon are on the rise, with the latter on the cusp of breaking into our comedy supporting actress top eight.

The list of programs that have shown significant improvement this week also includes limited series “Ripley” and “The Sympathizer,”  TV movie “Scoop,” dramas “3 Body Problem” and “The Crown,” and comedies “The Gentlemen” and “Palm Royale.” In addition to Gordon, on-the-bubble actors from predicted series nominees who are on the rise themselves include Devery Jacobs and D’Pharaoh Woon-A-Tai of “Reservation Dogs,” Nathan Fielder and Benny Safdie of “The Curse,” and Harvey Guillén of “What We Do in the Shadows.”

Be on the lookout for new state of the Emmys race updates every Tuesday leading up to the nominations announcement on July 17.

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?

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