What Summer B.O. Slump? $2.8B+ Season Near Even With 2018 As ‘Spider-Man: Far From Home’ Heads To $177M-$184M
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SATURDAY AM Writethru after Friday 10:37PM and midday updates: In its fourth day of release, Spider-Man: Far From Home has minted its second-best day yet with $32.7M, way up from the $26.5M we saw yesterday afternoon. Friday jumped 30% over July 4 with a four-day running total now at $124M for the Sony release. 3-day is now projected between $87M-$93M putting the 6-day opening between $177M-$184M at 4,634 theaters. Far From Home is on its way to notching the record for the best 6-day Independence holiday launch topping Despicable Me 2 ($153.5M) Spider-Man 2 ($180M). Far From Home will also be far ahead of the $154.1M that Spider-Man: Homecoming cleared in its first six days, and that pic didn’t have any help from July 4 (which isn’t always a kind holiday at the B.O.). Far From Home is cheaper then its previous chapter with $160M-$165M prior to worldwide P&A. Homecoming cost $175M and churned a profit after all ancillaries of $200.1M.
Updated exits on Far From Home: ComScore/Screen Engine’s PostTrak shows a 90% positive and a stellar 76% def recommend. Males are leading at 65% with 53% under 25 years old with the single largest quad being 18-24 at 29%. Diversity breakdown shows 43% Caucasian, 25% Hispanic, 17% African American, and 15% Asian/Other. Far From Home played strongest in the East and West, but overall very strong across the country. Rivals are projecting a 10%-15% boost today for Far From Home over Friday sending its Saturday B.O. to $36M-$37.5M.
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Why The Summer Box Office At $3 Billion Isn't In A Slump
And by the way, don’t believe all this sky-is-falling B.S. at the summer box office. For the period of April 26 (when Avengers: Endgame opened) through July 4, the summer box office has generated $2.84 billion per ComScore, essentially even with the same period a year ago for the frame between Avengers: Infinity War opening (April 27) and July 5. No one in exhibition is looking at their calendar this year saying, ‘Duh, um, summer starts the first weekend of May.” No! For them, summer started the minute Endgame pumped out the biggest opening of all-time at $357.1M. And with big box office, comes big ticket sales.
Now granted, 55% of this summer’s B.O. comes from Disney and Fox which when combined total $1.56B. Disney alone minted $1.465B, +6% from the same period last summer. Endgame at close to $845M during that time reps a third of the season’s business versus Infinity War which drove 24% of the April 27-July 5 domestic box office.
A24’s Midsommar is coming in at the high-end of its tracking with an expected $10.4M over five days. Keep in mind there was mostly a digital push here for the film in regard to P&A, but is as the case with arthouse horror, critics applaud it while genre fans reject it. Not to mention the film isn’t really playing in flyover states with its best ticket sales on the coasts we hear. The pic also clocks in at 2 hours and 27 minutes which is not the typical running time for a horror movie. It also doesn’t help being on the heels of a horror franchise in the marketplace, Annabelle Comes Home. Those buying tickets in updated exits were 58% male and 76% between 18-34 with the largest single quad being 25-34 years at 45%. Diversity demos were 62% Caucasian, 15% Hispanic, 12% Asian/Other, and 11% African American.
Sony’s summer ticket sales for the period of April 26-July 4 counts $212.5M, +335% from the same frame a year ago.
The rest of the July 5-7 box office is as follows as of Saturday AM:
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FRIDAY AM WRITETHRU after JULY 4th evening update: Sony’s Spider-Man: Far From Home had an excellent July 4th, making an estimated $25.1M, dipping 7% from yesterday. Through 3-days, the Jon Watts-directed sequel counts $91.35M. Far From Home‘s gross today is arguably the second best Independence Day at the B.O. after Transformers‘ $29M in 2007. The 3rd, 4th and 5th best July 4th single day grosses belong to Despicable Me 2 ($24.5M), Amazing Spider-Man ($23.3M) and Spider-Man 2 ($21.9M).
Should Far From Home emulate the post July 4th Friday-Saturday-Sunday percentile trajectory of Despicable Me 2 or Amazing Spider-Man, the 6-day gross could reach between $173M-$180M. At the lowest level, Spidey’s Friday to Sunday swath is looking like $82M-$85M. God forbid this pic retracts back to $150M-$160M, it’s still a great shot in the arm for the summer box office, and believe me, exhibition isn’t crying one bit. For certain, Far From Home should easily clear $125M by tomorrow or Saturday.
Understand that typically on July 4th, the holiday’s ticket sales can decline by as much as 30% from the previous day. That didn’t happen here with Far From Home, and again, it shows the power of the Marvel Cinematic Universe brand. More updates in the AM.
A24 reports this morning that Ari Aster’s Midsommar made $1.33M on July 4, -56% from its opening day, at 2,585 bringing its 2-day total to $4.35M for a 5-day between $13M-$15M.
THURSDAY AM UPDATE: Yes, it’s true, the $27M that Spider-Man: Far From Home is the best Wednesday for any Marvel Cinematic Universe movie beating even Avengers: Endgame‘s first Wednesday of $25.2M. Two-day total is at $66.3M. 6-Day is expected to be north of $150M. Wednesday’s haul is -32% from Tuesday’s opening.
But, interestingly enough, Far From Home is lower than the $40.4M Wednesday posted by Sony’s own Spider-Man 2 back in 2004. Note that was the opening day for the movie.
Because of July 4 festivities today, business is expected to ease further before spiking again on Friday. However, if there’s rain anywhere in the country –and there’s not much except around Kansas, the plains, with scattered strong storms around the western Great Lakes, Ohio Valley and into the Mid-Atlantic and the Southeast–then business should overindex for Spidey.
A24 is reporting $3M for the opening day of Ari Aster’s Midsommar which includes $1.1m previews. 5-day is around $13M. The pic placed third yesterday behind Disney/Pixar’s Toy Story 4 in 2nd place with an estimated $7.8M, -25% from Tuesday, and running total of $265.2M. Midsommar gets a C+ CinemaScore, which is average for a horror pic, but is higher than the D+ audiences slapped Aster’s Hereditary with last summer. There is an obvious divide between moviegoers and critics here who’ve enjoyed it at 80% certified fresh on Rotten Tomatoes. “Based on social discussion, the locale and event of Sweden and Midsommar does appeal to some horror fans – and those who have actually been able to attend this internationally recognized event. But, this is a small segment with few social media related materials,” says social media monitor RelishMix. At the same time, there’s positive social chatter too, “Fans of director Astor and the genre are all in to see Midsommar, as Hereditary was a recent favorite of theirs – and this travel piece seems to have similar creepy elements. The very festival itself and its natural comparison to The Wicker Man are favorite discussion pieces for this movie. For those who have attended the event in Sweden, this movie’s disturbing flavor really hits them – and it could be said it resonates with others as well. The breakup/couple portion of the plot line seems to be more of a polarizing element, however,” says RelishMix.
Midsommar‘s social media universe was small with around 33M followers on YouTube, Facebook, Twitter, and Instragram, down from the horror film average of 82M. However, with only three trailers as part of the online campaign, the viral rate was above average at 30:1. “Also, the movie is earning only 300 new Facebook fans daily, which is shy of the usual 1.7K. Most concerning is the 13.6K average views for the film’s top clips, which is behind the horror genre’s typical 27.7K views,” reports RelishMix.
New Line’s Annabelle Comes Home made $2.2M, -19% from Tuesday, for a running total since last Wednesday of $38.6M.
Universal/Working Title’s Yesterday minted $2M in 5th place, -15%, for a running 6-day total of $23.4M. Films dipped yesterday as that’s an organic decline from discount Tuesday, but some in distribution believe the July 4th travel period –which is expected to put close to 49M people on the road– is also a factor.
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WEDNESDAY MIDDAY UPDATE: After posting a record Tuesday opening day of $39.3M, Sony/Marvel’s Spider-Man: Far From Home is looking at a second day of $26M, and possibly even higher if the fanboys continue to come out tonight. That brings the Jon Watts’ directed sequel’s two-day tally to $65.3M. International per Nancy is at $150M through yesterday, a bulk of that from China; that’s $215.3M so far. Rivals are seeing a 6-day of $150M by Sunday, $500M Worldwide. At 4,634 theaters, Far From Home is the widest July release ever, and the second widest release ever after Avengers: Endgame which opened at 4,662. Yesterday, Far From Home repped more than 60% of Tuesday’s Fandango presales.
Far From Home we hear is cheaper than Spider-Man: Homecoming with a production cost between $160M-$165M before global P&A. Homecoming cost $175M and churned a profit after all ancillaries of $200.1M. Why is Far From Home cheaper? Our finance sources say one factor is because Iron Man Robert Downey Jr. isn’t starring in the film.
As we reported earlier, Screen Engine/ComScore PostTrak exits are fantastic with 4 1/2 stars last night for general audiences (who made up 68% of the crowd), 5 stars for parents and 4 1/2 stars for kids under 12 (combined 32% of the crowd). That’s a great 76% definite recommend. Far From Home drew a crowd that was 63% male, with under 25 dominating at 56%. In overall audiences, Far From Home pulled in 37% men under 25, 31% men over 25, 20% females under 25 and 18% females over 25. PostTrak polls throughout a pic’s two-week run.
A24’s Midsommar is looking at a $3.7M opening day, including those $1.1M Tuesday night previews, on its way to a $13.8M 5-day. The Ari Aster film will be booked at 2,707 theaters by Friday. Pic cost under $10M we understand and A24 sold off foreign. P&A has largely been a social and digital push. Critics love it more than audiences at 81% Certified fresh. Exits last night were 3 stars, and a 50% definite recommend. Males over 25 at 42% were the majority, followed by females over 25 (23%), males under 25 (21% — they liked the Ari Aster-directed pic the most at 78%) and females under 25 at 14%. The 18-34 demographic repped 74% of the audience. Midsommar is Aster’s second feature as director after last summer’s Hereditary which opened to $13.5M and finaled at $44M domestic. Midsommar follows a boyfriend who holds off breaking up with his girlfriend after a tragic incident occurs in her life. This emotional build-up happens to be occurring as both are headed to a crazy 9-day festival with their friends, which only happens every 90 years, a Swedish-puritan type celebration of love and glee — then everything goes bananas.
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