Will ‘Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse’ Steal Box Office From ‘The Little Mermaid’?

A very busy June for the box office kicks off this weekend with Sony Animation’s “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse,” a sequel that is expected to earn an opening weekend more than double that of its 2018 predecessor, the Oscar-winning “Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse.”

Back in December 2018, “Into the Spider-Verse” hit theaters, touting a new animated spin on Marvel’s famous webslinger based not on Peter Parker but on Miles Morales, the Afro-Latino teen introduced to the Marvel comics in 2011. The film opened to $35 million just before the Christmas holiday period. And while it faced tough competition from films like “Aquaman,” “Mary Poppins Returns” and “Bumblebee,” it legged out to a decent $190 million domestic and $375 million global opening.

But now, “Across the Spider-Verse” is expected to blow that total out of the water, with box office tracking projecting an opening weekend in the $80 million range, with Sony only slightly more conservative at $75 million-$80 million.

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Reviews for “Across the Spider-Verse” have been just as glowing as for its predecessor, with a “Certified Fresh” Rotten Tomatoes score of 95% at time of writing. With reviews not being published until Wednesday, that could have a substantial impact on walk-up traffic over the weekend and push the film’s opening past $90 million.

While “Spider-Verse” is looking for a strong launch, Disney needs a strong domestic second weekend for “The Little Mermaid” to salvage the film’s box office after its poor start overseas. Disney insiders say they’re confident that the film can hold well over the next two weekends considering that the film’s opening weekend crowd was 68% female, according to studio data.

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By comparison, the opening weekend for “Into the Spider-Verse” was roughly two-thirds male, showing that there’s not that much overlap between the two films even if they may both appeal to families and younger audiences. If “Across the Spider-Verse” has a similar audience breakdown even with the larger opening weekend, that would leave “Little Mermaid” plenty of room to leg out with its primarily female and Black-skewing audience.

Elsewhere, Disney is releasing the horror film “The Boogeyman” through 20th Century Studios. Based on Stephen King’s 1973 short story and adapted by “A Quiet Place” writers Scott Beck and Bryan Woods, the film is projected for a $15 million opening.

Disney/20th Century is giving “The Boogeyman” the same treatment that Paramount gave its fall 2022 breakout horror hit “Smile,” moving it from a streaming release to movie theaters. The film has received mildly positive reviews from critics with a 68% Rotten Tomatoes score.

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