How Selena Gomez can pull a Mandy Moore and score her first acting Emmy nomination

Selena Gomez has seen her “Only Murders in the Building” co-stars and guest stars get nominated for and win Emmys the past two years while she sat on the sidelines. Will the third time finally be the charm? She’s currently in fifth place in the Best Comedy Actress odds. Given her previous snubs, you’d be justified to doubt her chances, but we’ve been through this before with a twice snubbed actress-singer who pulled through on her third try under very similar circumstances: Mandy Moore.

“This Is Us” was a breakout hit when it premiered in 2016 on NBC. In 2017, it earned 10 Emmy nominations for its freshman installment, including Best Drama Series and seven acting bids — but not for Moore in Best Drama Actress. It won two awards: Best Drama Actor for Sterling K. Brown, who prevailed over his TV dad Milo Ventimiglia, a surprise nominee, and Best Drama Guest Actor for Gerald McRaney, who defeated fellow “This Is Us” guests Brian Tyree Henry and Denis O’Hare. The tearjerker’s other acting bids were for supporting players Ron Cephas Jones and Chrissy Metz.

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While Moore wasn’t expected to get in for Season 1 (she was in 10th place), she was predicted to do so for Season 2, sitting in fifth place, as many believed “This Is Us” would experience a sophomore surge in nominations. Not to mention, Moore had the acclaim for her performance in her would-be submission “Super Bowl Sunday,” the post-Super Bowl episode that revealed how Jack (Ventimiglia) died in 1998. Alas, not only was she snubbed once more, but the show decreased in nominations, receiving “only” eight bids, including four for acting. Jones won drama guest actor, while Brown, Ventimiglia and McRaney were nominated again.

Expectations were lower in 2019 and Moore was in 10th place in the drama actress odds. But the erstwhile Rebecca Pearson was one of the biggest nomination morning shockers as she made the field of seven, due to a tie, alongside eventual winner Jodie Comer (“Killing Eve”), Emilia Clarke (“Game of Thrones”), Viola Davis (“How to Get Away with Murder”), Laura Linney (“Ozark”), Sandra Oh (“Killing Eve”) and Robin Wright (“House of Cards”). “This Is Us” went up in nominations for Season 3 to nine, seven of which were for acting. Besides returning nominees Brown, Ventimiglia and Jones, Chris Sullivan scored his first of two supporting actor nominations, while Michael Angarano and Phylicia Rashad received guest bids.

SEE ‘Only Murders in the Building’ showrunner John Hoffman: ‘Let’s triple down here and be a bit ambitious’

Moore’s surprise nomination can be attributed to several things — maybe enough voters caught up on the show to tip her over the edge — but the biggest factor is something that applies to Gomez’s current situation: Her category had a near complete turnover from the previous year. Oh was the only 2018 nominee who was eligible to return, so it was anyone’s game — and anyone’s guess — as to who’d join her. Comer, Linney and Clarke, who upgraded to lead for the final season of “Game of Thrones,” felt like safe picks and made it. But instead of going for the widely predicted Julia Roberts (“Homecoming,” fourth place) and Christine Baranski (“The Good Fight,” sixth place), voters turned to two familiar faces — Robin Wright, who earned her sixth bid for “House of Cards” and was in seventh place, and “How to Get Away with Murder’s” Viola Davis, the 2015 champ who was snubbed in 2018 and was lower in the odds than Moore at 11th — and Moore herself.

While Moore was not a previous nominee, the fact that she got in suggests she was probably close to a nomination the first two years of “This Is Us.” It makes sense that the actress made the cut in a wide-open field as the star of a popular show beloved by actors. Voters that year also weren’t hot on new shows like “Homecoming” (one nomination), “Gentleman Jack” (zero nominations; Suranne Jones was in ninth place) and to a lesser extent, “Pose,” which received six nominations, including for series and eventual drama actor winner Billy Porter, but Michael Jaé Rodriguez, who was in eighth place, was snubbed. And let’s face it, they were never hot on “The Good Fight.”

Five years later, Gomez, who’s been nominated as a producer on “Only Murders,” could mimic Moore’s trajectory to her maiden acting bid. In 2022, the Hulu comedy received 17 nominations for its first season, including four for acting: Steve Martin and Martin Short in Best Comedy Actor, Jane Lynch in Best Comedy Guest Actress and Nathan Lane, who won Best Comedy Guest Actor. Just like “This Is Us,” “Only Murders” suffered a sophomore slump in nominations, including a snub for a previously nominated series regular. It received 11 bids, with only Short and Lane snagging acting mentions, as Martin was shockingly MIA on the comedy actor shortlist.

SEE Meryl Streep predicted to win Best Comedy Supporting Actress for ‘Only Murders in the Building’

Gomez wasn’t expected to receive a nomination last year and was in eighth place. “Abbott Elementary’s” Quinta Brunson won the Emmy and is the only 2023 nominee eligible to return. “Hacks” star Jean Smart, the 2021 and 2022 champ who was ineligible last year, and reigning supporting actress winner Ayo Edebiri, who is going lead for Season 2 of “The Bear,” are shoo-ins, which leaves two spots if the category has five nominees again. Nine-time nominee Kristen Wiig is in fourth place for Apple TV+’s new series “Palm Royale.”

As was the case with Moore, Gomez could be aided by the category’s mass exodus, in addition to the lack of depth in the field that was also impacted by the dual strikes. For all we know, Gomez, like Moore, may have just missed the past two years in sixth or seventh place, and the category merely has to clear out for her to lock up a spot. Gomez also has the benefit of being on an established Emmy-winning show that is no worse than fourth in the comedy series race. (Martin is expected to make it back in as well with spots opening up in his category.) Outside of five-time winner Maya Rudolph (“Loot”), who’s in sixth place, many of the names behind Gomez in the odds have never been Emmy-nominated and/or are on weaker shows, including Devery Jacobs (“Reservation Dogs,” seventh place), Sarah Lancashire (“Julia,” eighth place), and “Girls5eva’s” Sara Bareilles (ninth place) and Renée Elise Goldsberry (11th place).

When someone keeps missing out on nomination while their co-stars get in, the common (mis)perception is that voters are purposely snubbing them. And while we’ll never know for sure, the reality is probably less cynical: They do have support and just need the category to break their way. Some contenders are strong on their own and others need a little help from their absentee friends.

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