How will new SEC football schedule model impact South Carolina? We could find out soon

The Southeastern Conference’s closed-door musical chairs debate about football schedules might well be nearing its end.

The league’s coaches and administrators are slated to meet this week in Destin, Florida for the SEC’s annual spring meetings, and a new football scheduling model should be at the top of the docket.

The conference has had ongoing discussions about eliminating divisions and adopting a new scheduling format for well over a year, thanks to the additions of Texas and Oklahoma to the SEC. Those two schools will be represented as non-voting members at spring meetings and begin football competition in the league in 2024.

The general consensus around college football is the SEC will adopt a model that includes three permanent opponents to make up for the expected elimination of divisions. Where contentiousness has arisen in is whether the league will shift from eight conference games per year to nine.

There was a hope the SEC could come to a consensus on the model during last year’s spring meetings, but no such decision was made. With OU and Texas in the mix for 2024, there’s increased pressure to get something done this week.

“I’m sure it’ll be a big topic of discussion down there in Destin,” South Carolina head coach Shane Beamer said.

What does that mean for South Carolina? Let’s take a look:

What football schedule does South Carolina favor?

South Carolina falls in a bizarre middle-ground among the SEC’s voting members in that it’s looked to be on the up-and-up over the last two years under Shane Beamer, but also has to account for the annual contest it plays against in-state rival Clemson.

USC has made a general habit of scheduling softer for its three non-conference games outside of the Clemson matchup in order to account for that game and an already strong league schedule. Shifting to a nine-game slate would then functionally add an extra Power Five game to the docket every year.

South Carolina’s future opponents that are already on the books also make a move to nine-games increasingly less desirable. USC has contests scheduled against North Carolina, Virginia Tech, Miami (Fla.) and N.C. State in eight of the next nine years. That comes on the heels of the Gamecocks playing at least one non-Clemson Power Five program every other year between 2013 and 2019.

Like other SEC schools, USC would have to remove some of the future nonconference games from its schedules — and buy out those contracts — if the league moves to a nine conference games.

Though the school hasn’t publicly stated a preference, South Carolina is among the league teams who prefer sticking with an eight-game SEC schedule, according to a report from 247Sports. USC, Arkansas, Kentucky and Mississippi State are all against the nine-game format, according to the report, with Alabama possibly in line to join them in that opposition.

SEC commissioner Greg Sankey noted during last year’s spring meetings that annual non-conference rivalries like those between South Carolina and Clemson, Kentucky and Louisville, or Florida and Florida State would be considered in the discussion of a new scheduling format.

South Carolina’s permanent opponents?

Whether the SEC goes to an eight- or nine-game schedule should have no bearing on whether teams will shift to a model that eliminates divisions and incorporates three permanent annual opponents.

That move is expected to be made in order to ensure teams face one another more regularly than they do under the current format. South Carolina, for example, has played Mississippi State in Starkville just once since 2011. That would happen more frequently under the expected new approach.

So who would the Gamecocks draw as permanent opponents? There are a few options.

The most obvious answer — if there even really is one — feels like Georgia given their geographic proximity (133 miles between Columbia and Athens) and that the Bulldogs are the Gamecocks’ only true rival in the league.

The most likely other options should come from a combination of Kentucky, Florida and/or Tennessee. Kentucky feels like a logical option given it and South Carolina have occupied similar realms in the SEC pecking order over the last 20 years.

Tennessee or Florida may well be decided as much based on which rivalry games either program protects as anything else. Tennessee is almost certainly going to keep Alabama (long history) and Vanderbilt (in-state matchup) on its schedule, while Florida should have Georgia locked in after the schools agreed to exercise an extension on their annual meeting in Jacksonville last week.

It’s possible the Volunteers and Gators end up saving their annual game, which would — for this experiment — leave Florida one available spot in its three permanent opponents.

But enough prognosticating. We should have an answer on all of this sooner than later.