SAG Awards nailbiter: It’s a very tight race between Austin Butler (‘Elvis’) and Brendan Fraser (‘The Whale’)

This year we have a real race on our hands for Best Actor, with four out of five SAG Awards nominees also contending at the Oscars: Austin Butler (“Elvis”), Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”), Colin Farrell (“The Banshees of Inisherin”) and Bill Nighy (“Living”); Adam Sandler (“Hustle”) replaces Oscar nominee Paul Mescal (“Aftersun”) in the last slot. Right now, it is looking like the guild’s battle is between two actors with very different stories, Butler and Fraser.

There is no doubt that BAFTA and Golden Globe champ Butler has a lot of advantages going for him that could catapult him to a win for portraying the famed rock and roll singer Elvis Presley, but Fraser is on the verge of a comeback narrative, winning critics’ and tribute awards for his performance as an overweight, isolated professor struggling to reconnect with his daughter before it is too late. The SAG Awards usually can signal a tide change for the frontrunner status and it is looking like it will be a tight heat between the two actors.

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Currently the Gold Derby SAG odds have Fraser in the top spot to win at 71/20. He is coming off a win at the Critics Choice Awards, where he gave an emotional speech that culminated his entire career thus far. Ever since “The Whale” premiered at Venice International Film Festival and then later at TIFF, it has been an increasing feeling that it would be the perfect moment to award Fraser, who has been working in the industry for decades and has taken a backseat in his career in the last few years prior to the movie. Everyone loves rooting for a career comeback and Fraser epitomizes the nostalgic feeling of someone that people may be dying to reward.

On top of that, Fraser gives a heart-wrenching performance that has been lauded by critics and audiences alike, with Owen Gleiberman (Variety) calling his work “more haunting than he has ever been” and “intensely lived-in.” Not to mention that Fraser goes through a transformation, physically through prosthetics, similar to SAG and Oscar winners Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”) and Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”). “The Whale” is also making a good run at the box office, grossing $15.9 million against a $3 million budget since it opened in theaters December 9. SAG is the first award body that nominated Fraser’s co-star Hong Chau, showing increasing support as she later went on to receive a nomination for BAFTA and the Oscars, and the film also received a surprise PGA nomination.

Butler sits right behind Fraser with 18/5 odds to win the SAG Award, but he is in a much stronger film with “Elvis,” which has overperformed across all award shows and guilds, garnering eight BAFTA nominations and nine Oscar bids, including Best Picture, the latter number tripling the tally for “The Whale,” which only received mentions for Fraser, Chau and Best Makeup & Hairstyling. Butler also has some hardware under his belt, winning a Golden Globe, which is reminiscent to its history of awarding a long list of performers from music biopics – Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody” as Freddie Mercury), Renee Zellweger (“Judy” as Judy Garland), Taron Egerton (“Rocketman” as Elton John), Andra Day (“The United States vs. Billie Holiday” as Billie Holiday), Joaquin Phoenix and Reese Witherspoon (“Walk the Line” as Johnny and June Cash), and Jamie Foxx (“Ray” as Ray Charles).

SEE 2023 SAG Awards Predictions: Best Film Actor

Last weekend, Butler surprised pundits when he won the BAFTA Award over hometown hero Farrell. Indeed, his portrayal has been widely praised (including even from Presley’s family members) and like all the aforementioned actors, he goes through a vocal transformation and handles the role with detail through his movements and speech. David Ehrlich (IndieWire) raves that Butler “more than just nail Presley’s singing voice and stage presence.” Despite being the only nomination for “Elvis” at the SAG Awards, Butler can easily win with a populist vote against Fraser.

The race seems likely decided between Fraser and Butler with about twice the number of users at Gold Derby’s collective odds predicting the former over the latter for the SAG Awards. Farrell also is holding steady in third with 4/1 odds and “The Banshees of Inisherin” is the only film this year to have all their actors nominated individually and for Best Film Ensemble. Meanwhile, Nighy and Sandler both have 9/2 odds for the guild.

So it ultimately comes down to which performer has a stronger narrative, and who can garner more support when the SAG Awards air and ride the wave to the Oscars. Talk about a nailbiter!

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