Our ridiculously early 2022 Grammy Awards predictions: Taylor Swift, Olivia Rodrigo, Lil Nas X

With so much drama surrounding the Recording Academy the past 12 months, there is no doubt that this year's fleet of Grammy Awards nominations will look different.

New leadership (Harvey Mason Jr. is officially CEO), new rules (nomination “review committees” have been axed) and even some new categories (best global music performance, best música urbana album) top the inventory of modifications designed to appropriately salute younger artists and reestablish trust within the industry .

In the general and genre fields, nominations will now be determined by a majority, peer-to-peer vote among voting members of the Recording Academy; previously, a group of about 15-30 music peers represented and voted within their specific genres to determine the final selection of nominees.

Also, Grammy voters will only vote in 10 specific genre fields – reduced from 15 – to ensure that music creators are only voting in categories in which they are most knowledgeable and qualified. However, all voters will be able to cast a ballot in the big four “general field” lineups – record, song and album of the year and best new artist.

Here are some early prognostications – or, rather, highly informed guesswork – about which names (arranged alphabetically) and releases we’ll likely see celebrated on nomination day in those categories.

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Album of the year

Drake, “Certified Lover Boy”: The long-awaited sixth studio effort from Kanye’s favorite nemesis not named Taylor isn’t an artistic triumph, but its mega-popularity is undeniable and no one wants another Weeknd-esque backlash.

Billie Eilish, “Happier Than Ever”: Coupled with her new blond look, the sophomore release from the Princess of Lo-Fi Introspection successfully furthered her artistic growth. Also, Eilish swept the major categories (plus one more) in 2020. Voters like her. They really like her.

Lil Nas X, “Montero”: Packed with heartfelt lyrics, unbridled honesty and a willingness to explore a musical smorgasbord, the young rapper’s debut is proof of his innovator status.

Kacey Musgraves, “Star-Crossed": A sweet, tender, painful chronicle of divorce, the release is the melancholy bookend to 2018’s genre-hopping Grammy darling, “Golden Hour.”

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Olivia Rodrigo, “Sour”: Recorded during COVID-19 lockdown, Rodrigo’s debut alternately teems with pop-rock-punk spunk (“Good 4 U,” “Déjà Vu”) and heart-squishing teenage angst (“Drivers License”).

Taylor Swift, “Evermore”: The companion effort to the 2021 album of the year winner (“Folklore”) is, arguably, the more potent of the pair with its adventuresome folk-pop and vivid storytelling. Swift could break her own record – set earlier this year – by winning the category a fourth time.

Record of the year (awarded to the artist and producer)

Justin Bieber with The Kid Laroi, “Stay”: The propulsive pop song is the most effusive Bieber has sounded in eons.

BTS, “Butter”: Though not nearly as melodically flawless as 2020’s “Dynamite,” this smoothie should give the K-pop superstars a deserved spotlight.

Doja Cat (featuring SZA), “Kiss Me More”: The raunchier cousin to her Grammy-nominated breakthrough, “Say So,” the lead single from Doja Cat’s third album is a breezy delight.

H.E.R., “Damage”: The chameleonic singer-musician born Gabriella Wilson dropped this R&B finger-snapper on her debut, “Back of My Mind,” released in June.

Lil Nas X, “Montero (Call Me By Your Name)”: Though not the most lyrically astute track on his debut album, the song – which is titled after the young rapper’s birth name – is a hooky slice of electro-pop-rap.

Olivia Rodrigo, “Drivers License”: The heartache of young love and jealousy is perfectly encapsulated in this power ballad with a bridge so killer, it’s almost Swift-ian.

Song of the year (awarded to the songwriter)

Brandi Carlile, “Right on Time”: The soul of this woman is ridiculously expansive, her voice a masterpiece of sound.

Billie Eilish, “Happier Than Ever”: Amid the documentaries and the gossip sites and the extraneous nonsense, it’s often forgotten that Eilish is a rather potent singer. This is the reminder.

Olivia Rodrigo, “Drivers License”: See: above, teenage heartbreak.

Silk Sonic, “Leave The Door Open”: Considering Bruno Mars and Anderson .Paak debuted their side project on the 2021 Grammy Awards, it would be very un-Grammy-like not to reward with a nod for their throwback creation.

Chris Stapleton, “Starting Over”: The title track of the country-soul man’s fourth studio album resonates in its exploration of the joys of old love and new beginnings.

Taylor Swift, “Willow”: Swift channeling Joni Mitchell not only reflects her musical maturity, but her ability to still be a student at her level of sustained stardom.

Best new artist

(Criteria stipulates that the artist must have released a minimum of five singles/tracks or one album and "achieved a breakthrough into the public consciousness and notably impacted the musical landscape," according to the official Recording Academy guidelines.)

Gabby Barrett: A graduate of the 2018 class of “American Idol,” the country darling has scored a couple of No. 1 singles: “I Hope” (with Charlie Puth) and “The Good Ones.”

Glass Animals: The British indie rockers hit their Stateside stride with “Heat Waves” and heightened their visibility with “I Don’t Wanna Talk (I Just Wanna Dance).”

The Kid Laroi: A success in his native Australia for a couple of years, the Kid (aka Charlton Howard) has achieved massive popularity with Miley Cyrus (“Without You”) and Bieber (“Stay”).

Arlo Parks: “Collapsed in Sunbeams,” the debut album from the British indie pop artist, is already the winner of the prestigious 2021 Mercury Prize.

Olivia Rodrigo: It’s a foregone conclusion who is going to walk away with the gilded trophy, but it’s OK to pretend otherwise for the moment.

Saweetie: Though “My Type” and “Back to the Streets” introduced the rapper to the top of the charts, her dance hit with Doja Cat (“Best Friend”) has turned her platinum.

Some dates to file away: Eligible recordings had to be released between Sept. 1, 2020, and Sept. 30, 2021. Nominations will be announced Nov. 23. The 64th annual ceremony will take place Jan. 31 at the Staples Center in Los Angeles.

This article originally appeared on USA TODAY: Early Grammy Awards 2022 predictions, from Taylor Swift to Lil Nas X