Reading the Oscar tea leaves: ‘The Holdovers’ original screenplay is the frontrunner

Jacob Sarkisian
·3 min read
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Focus Features’ “The Holdovers” is one of the sweetest movies of the year and is set to become a new Christmas classic. Written by David Hemingson and directed by Alexander Payne, the 1970s-set story follows Paul Giamatti as a school professor tasked with staying behind on campus to look after students not going home for Christmas. What follows is a charming, touching tale about two foes who learn to become friends. Giamatti gives a knockout performance while Da’Vine Joy Randolph is a hot contender for Best Supporting Actress for her role as a cook mourning the death of her son. The movie’s strongest point, however, is its writing.

“Whiskey Cavalier” creator and “Black-Ish” and “American Dad!” scribe David Hemingson crafted the script. He has never been nominated for an Oscar before but we expect that that he’ll win one this year. We’re predicting he will take home the Best Original Screenplay Oscar over rival nominees “Past Lives,” “Barbie,” “Anatomy of a Fall,” and “Maestro.”

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His has the hallmarks of many winning screenplays in this category. Firstly, it features a stellar actor in a plum of a role with character development and arc. Similar films that won in this category include “Green Book” in 2019 (Peter Farrelly, Brian Currie, and Nick Vallelonga), “Manchester by the Sea” in 2019 (Kenneth Lonergan), and “Birdman” in 2015 (Armando Bo, Alexander Dinelaris Jr., Nicolás Giacobone, and Alejandro G. Iñárritu). Plus, this form of melancholic writing is a genre loved by the academy. Touching, heartwarming comedy dramas always do well. “Belfast” won in 2022 (Kenneth Branagh), “Her” in 2014 (Jonze), “Juno” in 2008 (Diablo Cody), and “Little Miss Sunshine” in 2007 (Michael Arndt).

Original Screenplay is almost always awarded to a Best Picture nominee. In fact, the last 18 winners have all been Best Picture nominees. The last winner in this category not to be an Oscar nominee was “Eternal Sunshine of the Spotless Mind” in 2005 (Charlie Kaufman, Pierre Bismuth, and Michel Gondry). Luckily for Hemingson, we predict that “The Holdovers” will be nominated for the top prize.

Payne pictures do well in the writing races: four of his films have contended to date. “Election,” was nominated for Adapted Screenplay in 2000. Payne was nominated with his writing partner Jim Taylor for turning Tom Perrotta’s 1998 novel of the same name into a film; they lost to John Irving for “The Cider House Rules.” “Sideways” picked up five nominations in 2005 including an Adapted Screenplay bid for Payne and Taylor for their treatment of Rex Pickett’s 2004 novel of the same name. Payne and Taylor won this time around.

In 2012, “The Descendants” repeated the record of “Sideways,” matching five nominations and one Adapted Screenplay victory. This time, Payne won alongside Nat Faxon and Jim Rash. They adapted the 2007 novel of the same name by Kaui Hart Hemmings.

“Nebraska” marked the first time a Payne movie was nominated for its writing without Payne having done the writing himself. Bob Nelson was nominated for Original Screenplay in 2014, although he lost to Spike Jonze for “Her.”

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