Ray Richmond: One man’s forecast of how the Emmy nominations will go

Well, it won’t be long now before we’ll know the Primetime Emmy nominees. Wednesday morning (8:30 a.m. PT, 11:30 a.m. ET) is mere hours away. And naturally, being a Gold Derby editor in good standing, I have some thoughts on this particular subject. Of course, if you’re reading these words, no doubt you do, too. So I invite you to check out my picks below, compare them to your own, and then consider why I’m right or wrong. Your belief system may vary.

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Let’s take it category by category, shall we? In order of nomination likelihood. And just to shake things up, let’s start off with drama series instead of comedy.

DRAMA SERIES

• “Succession”

• “The White Lotus”

• “The Last of Us”

• “Better Call Saul”

• “The Crown”

• “House of the Dragon”

• “Yellowjackets”

• “The Diplomat”

Yes, I know, this is basically “Succession” and seven others. But there will be fellow nominees, and it must be acknowledged that they are every bit as deserving of attention on Emmy nomination day. Expect half of the nominees to come from the stable of HBO (“Succession,” “The White Lotus” – which is now in drama series rather than limited and can no longer dominate – “The Last of Us” and “House of the Dragon”). “The Crown” will also claim its usual spot in the lineup. My upset pick to crash the party is “The Diplomat,” the Keri Russell political drama that I don’t think receives nearly enough love.

SEEEmmy nomination predictions: ‘Succession,’ ‘Abbott Elementary’ predicted to lead

DRAMA LEAD ACTRESS

• Sarah Snook,” “Succession”

• Imelda Staunton, “The Crown”

• Keri Russell, “The Diplomat”

• Melanie Lynskey, “Yellowjackets”

• Bella Ramsey, “The Last of Us”

• Helen Mirren, “1923”

And speaking of Keri Russell, I think she beats the odds and cracks the drama actress lineup along with Helen Mirren for “1923,” knocking out Emma D’Arcy (“House of the Dragon”) and Elisabeth Moss (“The Handmaid’s Tale”). C’mon, how can there be an Emmy category she qualifies for that Mirren doesn’t get in? Of course, the race is also Sarah Snook’s to lose, but there will be plenty of time to address that throughout the long, hot summer.

DRAMA LEAD ACTOR

• Jeremy Strong, “Succession”

• Kieran Culkin, “Succession”

• Bob Odenkirk, “Better Call Saul”

• Jeff Bridges, “The Old Man”

• Pedro Pascal “The Last of Us”

• Brian Cox, “Succession”

It would take an act of God at this point to deny Jeremy Strong and Kieran Culkin their rightful spots at the top of the drama actor list for their seminal work in “Succession.” Bob Odenkirk is an annual nominee for “Saul” who won’t be denied in its swan-song season, nor will Pedro Pascal for the much-hyped debut of “Last of Us.” That leaves elder statesmen Brian Cox and Jeff Bridges to do battle, neither of which voters would dare deny.

SEEEmmy nomination predictions: Our official odds in top 25 categories

DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Jennifer Coolidge, “The White Lotus”

• Rhea Seehorn, “Better Call Saul”

• Elizabeth Debicki, “The Crown”

• Aubrey Plaza, “The White Lotus”

• Christina Ricci, “Yellowjackets”

• Carol Burnett, “Better Call Saul”

• J. Smith-Cameron, “Succession”

• Meghann Fahy, “The White Lotus”

As much as “Succession” will dominate in lead and supporting drama actor, so too will “The White Lotus” command the supporting drama actress lineup. Expect performers from the show to snare nearly half the eight nomination slots, led by 2022 winner Jennifer Coolidge, with Aubrey Plaza and Meghann Fahy alongside. Coolidge will be the heavy favorite, but no matter. Then we will have returning nominees Rhea Seehorn for “Saul,” Christina Ricci for “Yellowjackets” and J. Smith-Cameron for “Succession.” Plus, just to shake everything up, expect to find six-time winner and living legend Carol Burnett for “Saul.”

DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Matthew Madfadyen, “Succession”

• Giancarlo Esposito, “Better Call Saul”

• Matt Smith, “House of the Dragon”

• F. Murray Abraham, “The White Lotus”

• John Lithgow, “The Old Man”

• Jonathan Banks, “Better Call Saul”

• Alan Ruck, “Succession”

• Nicholas Braun, “Succession”

The “Succession” parade will continue here with Matthew Macfadyen, Alan Ruck and Nicholas Braun (with a fourth cast member, Alexander Skarsgard, also possible). Ruck in particular is long overdue for a little Emmy love, and both Giancarlo Esposito and Jonathan Banks are well deserving of being on the list. It would be Esposito’s sixth nod and third for “Better Call Saul,” while it would be Banks’ fifth for “Saul” and seventh overall. John Lithgow, meanwhile, is looking for his 14th nomination for “The Old Man.” He’s won six.

SEE2023 Emmys: How many ‘Succession’ actors will actually be nominated?

COMEDY SERIES

• “Abbott Elementary”

• “Ted Lasso”

• “The Bear”

• “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”

• “Barry”

• “Poker Face”

• “Shrinking”

• “Jury Duty”

OK, here’s my predictions really start to get sort of interesting. I’m forecasting that both “Only Murders in the Building” (long a top five favorite on Gold Derby) will get shut out of comedy series and replaced by – drum roll, please – the viral Amazon Freevee sensation “Jury Duty.” Call it my Andrea Riseborough grassroots breakthrough of Emmy season. If I’m right, I look like a genius. If I’m wrong? Nobody notices. It’s win-win, baby! Meanwhile, among the frontrunners, I’m looking at “Abbott Elementary” to set the pace, with two-time category victor “Ted Lasso” also right there along with “The Bear,” the final season darlings “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” and “Barry,” and the freshman breakthroughs “Poker Face” and “Shrinking.”

COMEDY LEAD ACTRESS

• Christina Applegate, “Dead to Me”

• Quinta Brunson, “Abbott Elementary”

• Natasha Lyonne, “Poker Face”

• Jenna Ortega, “Wednesday”

• Rachel Brosnahan, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”

The fact there are only five slots this year is the comedy leads is more than slightly galling, as there are at least 7 or 8 worthy nominees. So I’m leaving off Elle Fanning (“The Great”), Selena Gomez (“Only Murders in the Building”) and Bridget Everett (“Somebody Somewhere”), which kills me. On the other hand, the five included on my list are as potent a quintet as any in recent memory and seem like locks for nods: Christina Applegate for the final season of “Dead to Me,” Quinta Brunson for “Abbott,” the brilliant Natasha Lyonne for “Poker Face,” Jenna Ortega for “Wednesday” and Rachel Brosnahan for the farewell campaign of “Mrs. Maisel.” The best news for these five: last year’s winner Jean Smart (“Hacks”) isn’t eligible.

SEEWhen are the Emmy nominations announced?

COMEDY LEAD ACTOR

• Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”

• Jason Sudeikis, “Ted Lasso”

• Bill Hader, “Barry”

• Steve Martin, “Only Murders in the Building”

• Jason Segel, “Shrinking”

The fact that Jason Sudeikis has won here two years running would typically mean he’s a heavy favorite to three-peat. But that’s not the case. In fact, he’s been locked in a tight race for category supremacy with Jeremy Allen White (“The Bear”) since Emmy season launched. In fact, I predict that White may be impossible to beat this time, with his soulful eyes and intense bearing (no pun intended). Bill Hader is also a 25-time Emmy nominees he’s already won in the category twice and might make it three – but probably not.

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Janelle James, “Abbott Elementary”

• Ayo Edibiri, “The Bear”

• Sheryl Lee Ralph, “Abbott Elementary”

• Alex Borstein, “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel”

• Lisa Ann Walter, “Abbott Elementary”

• Hannah Waddingham, “Ted Lasso”

• Juno Temple, “Ted Lasso”

Unlike the comedy leads that are limited to a handful of nominees, the supportings get seven. That promises to be key in what will be a historic first for the category. Should Janelle James and last year’s memorable winner Sheryl Lee Ralph (for “Abbott Elementary”) and Ayo Edebiri (“The Bear”) all get nominated as expected – and they will – it will be the first time in comedy supporting that three women of color made the list. That’s an exciting prospect. Beyond that, Lisa Ann Walter will also crash the party for “Abbott,” giving the show three nods while “Ted Lasso” figures to land two.

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Tyler James Williams, “Abbott Elementary”

• Brett Goldstein, “Ted Lasso”

• Harrison Ford, “Shrinking”

• Henry Winkler, “Barry”

• Anthony Carrigan, “Barry”

• Ebon Moss-Bachrach, “The Bear”

• James Marsden, “Jury Duty”

Brett Goldstein is looking to make it three in a row for “Ted Lasso,” but he’s got his work cut out (though not for a nomination, which is assured). Henry Winkler has been nominated every season of “Barry” (and won once), so he’ll be back as well. And Tyler James Williams (“Abbott”) has the inside track to victory after his Emmy nomination last year along with a Golden Globe win in January, plus a meatier Season 2 storyline. But looming large over the category is a fella named Harrison Ford, who had that whole Harrison Ford thing going in “Shrinking.” Then there is my crazy prediction of James Marsden landing a spot here for “Jury Duty.” Oh, what a tangled web I weave.

LIMITED SERIES

• “Beef”

• “Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”

• “A Small Light”

• “Fleishman is in Trouble”

• “Black Bird”

It’s ironic that in a year when the limited series category is perhaps stronger than it’s ever been, only a handful of nominee slots are permitted. That said, I’m predicting a few choices that came out what seems like ages ago (“Monster: “The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” and “Black Bird”) along with a few more recent entries (frontrunner “Beef” and “A Small Light”) along with the intriguing “Fleishman Is in Trouble.” I’m leaving out some others faves like “Daisy Jones and the Six,” “George and Tammy” and “Swarm” in favor of a longer shot in “A Small Light,” which I think will exceed expectations in a number if categories.

TV-MOVIE

• “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story”

• “Fire Island”

• “Prey”

• “Jerry and Marge Go Large”

• “Reality”

There are more than the usual number of decent made-for-TV movies this year from which to choose nominees, but for my money “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story” stands out as the one to beat.

LIMITED/TV-MOVIE LEAD ACTRESS

• Jessica Chastain, “George and Tammy”

• Bel Powley, “A Small Light”

• Ali Wong, “Beef”

• Emily Blunt, “The English”

• Elizabeth Olsen, “Love & Death”

• Rachel Weisz, “Dead Ringers”

Talk about a powerhouse lineup. In Jessica Chastain (“George and Tammy”) and Rachel Weisz (“Dead Ringers”), you have a couple of Oscar winners. That’s not to mention the work of Ali Wong in “Beef” and Emily Blunt in “The English.” But it’s the performance of Bel Powley as the heroic Miep Gies in the Holocaust drama “A Small Light” that could wind up slipping through the upsetting everyone. It would certainly be well-deserved. It’s going to be a jam-packed category any way you slice it here.

LIMITED/TV-MOVIE LEAD ACTOR

• Evan Peters, “Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”

• Daniel Radcliffe, “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story”

• Steven Yeun, “Beef”

• Taron Egerton, “Black Bird”

• Steve Carell, “The Patient”

• Jesse Eisenberg, “Fleishman Is in Trouble”

Everyone has been raving about the work of Evan Peters for his sublimely creepy portrayal of Jeffrey Dahmer in “Monster” ever since the series came out last year. He already win an Emmy two years ago for “Mare of Easttown” and could well make it two in a row. But that’s down the road. For now, we’re talking nominees, and Peters is a lock for one, Daniel Radcliffe for another for “Weird: The Al Yankovic Story,” Steven Yeun a third for “Beef” and Taron Egerton a fourth for “Black Bird.” That leaves two more positions, for which I’m picking Steve Carell for “The Patient” and Jesse Eisenberg for “Fleishman Is in Trouble” over Michael Shannon for “George and Tammy.”

LIMITED/TV-MOVIE SUPPORTING ACTRESS

• Niecy Nash-Betts, “Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”

• Claire Danes, “Fleishman Is in Trouble”

• Lena Headey, “White House Plumbers”

• Cherry Jones, “Five Days at Memorial”

• Olivia Colman, “Great Expectations”

• Maria Bello, “Beef”

• Lily Rabe, “Love and Death”

This category may boast the surest one-two nomination punch of any category at this year’s Emmys. Of course, I’m talking about Niecy Nash-Betts for “Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story” and Claire Danes for her mesmerizing work in “Fleishman Is in Trouble.” The earth would need to stop spinning on its axis for those two to be denied. The others vying for spots include Oscar winner Olivia Colman for “Great Expectations,” the ever-dependable Cherry Jones for the underappreciated “Five Days at Memorial” and Maria Bello for her exceptional turn in “Beef.”

LIMITED/TV-MOVIE SUPPORTING ACTOR

• Paul Walter Hauser, “Black Bird”

• Richard Jenkins, “Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”

• Domhnall Gleeson, “The Patient”

• Young Mazino, “Beef”

• Jesse Plemons, “Love and Death”

• Ray Liotta, “Black Bird”

• Liev Schreiber,  “A Small Light”

Paul Walter Hauser (“Black Bird”) may be the biggest lock to win in any category this side of “Succession,” given that he already won Golden Globe and Critics Choice honors early this year and no one has stepped up to knock him from his frontrunner’s perch. That still leaves six more nominees, however, and those will be populated by most or all of the following: Oscar nominees Domhnall Gleeson (“The Patient”), Richard Jenkins (“Monster”), Young Mazino (so good as Steven Yeun’s screw-up brother in “Beef”), Jesse Plemons (“Love and Death”), the late great Ray Liotta (“Black Bird”) and Liev Schreiber for his stellar portrayal of Otto Frank in “A Small Light”).

COMPETITION PROGRAM

• “RuPaul’s Drag Race”

• “The Voice”

• “Top Chef”

• “The Traitors”

• “The Amazing Race”

“RuPaul’s Drag Race” has won an astonishing 26 Emmy Awards to date. But it didn’t win in this category last year. That honor went instead to “Lizzo’s Watch Out for the Big Grrrls” in a huge upset. But there’s no Lizzo this time, so it’s back again as the heave favorite along with category mainstays “Top Chef,” “The Amazing Race” and “The Voice” along with host Alan Cumming’s camped-out “The Traitors.”

REALITY HOST

• RuPaul Charles, “RuPaul’s Drag Race”

• Alan Cumming, “The Traitors”

• Queer Eye Hosts, “Queer Eye”

• Padma Lakshmi, “Top Chef”

• Nicole Byer, “Nailed It!”

RuPaul is automatically the favorite here because he’s won seven times before. But a couple of other three-time nominees (the “Queer Eye” hosts and Nicole Byer for “Nailed It!” also have a shot, as goes Padma Lakshmi for “Top Chef.” And the ever-charming Alan Cumming has already generated a big following for his Peacock hit “The Traitors.”

VARIETY TALK SERIES

• “Late Show with Stephen Colbert”

• “The Daily Show with Trevor Noah”

• “The Late Late Show with James Corden”

• “Jimmy Kimmel Live”

• “Late Night with Seth Meyers”

Stephen Colbert’s “Late Show” leads this pack. But his competition figures to be a couple of shows that will generate plenty of sentiment after having recently bid late-night adieu: “The Daily Show with Trevor Noah” and “The Late Late Show with James Corden.” “Jimmy Kimmel Live” and “Late Night with Seth Meyers” will round out the pack.

VARIETY SCRIPTED SERIES 

• “Saturday Night Live”

• “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver”

• “A Black Lady Sketch Show”

The Emmy rule change for variety categories means that “SNL” and “A Black Lady Sketch Show” will no longer be the only ones going head to head. Now, they’ll be joined by a third show and go head to head to head: “Last Week Tonight with John Oliver.” Not exactly peak competition, but, you know, that’s the way the Emm6y ball bounces sometimes.

ANIMATED PROGRAM

• “The Simpsons”

• “Bob’s Burgers”

• “Rick and Morty”

• “Big Mouth”

• “Genndy Tartakovsky’s Primal”

This would be the 31st time that “The Simpsons” cracks the animation category at the Emmys. Expect it to happen. It’s won 35 Emmys all told, including 11 for top animated program. “Bob’s Burgers” has won a mere twice but figures to be nominated again.

PREDICT the 2023 Emmy nominees through July 12

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