Ray Richmond: Here’s how ‘The Holdovers’ could win Best Picture

Ray Richmond
·6 min read
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With the 96th Academy Awards basically a month away, things are starting to get serious. Well, I mean, they’ve already been serious for a while, but now presumptions are beginning to mold into sure-things – at least, as sure as something whose results aren’t yet certain can be. The one thing everyone seems pretty sure about is this: “Oppenheimer” is getting ready to sweep up everything in sight at the forthcoming Oscars. You know it. I know it. Even people who don’t follow awards season that closely seem to know it.

But bear with me for a moment while I think about a possible alternate scenario in which “The Holdovers” swoops in and steals the biggest thunder by taking home the Best Picture statuette.

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No, I’m not crazy, Hear me out.

SEE‘The Holdovers’ producer Mark Johnson: ‘Every day, I still feel like a young boy who can’t believe he’s allowed to do this’ [Exclusive Video Interview]

First, let me make a case for “The Holdovers” being the finest and most moving film of the year. I had an opportunity to see it for the third time on Thursday, and it gets better and richer with each viewing. It’s a beautifully told story (writer David Hemingson is a nominee for Best Original Screenplay) blessed with exquisite direction from Alexander Payne and extraordinary performances from Paul Giamatti, Da’Vine Joy Randolph and dazzling newcomer Dominic Sessa. Giamatti is neck-and-neck with “Oppenheimer’s” Cillian Murphy for Best Actor, while Golden Globe and Critics Choice victor Randolph is the clear frontrunner for Best Supporting Actress. Sessa deserved a nomination too, but he’s barely old enough to drink. His time will come.

“The Holdovers” has a little bit of everything: humor, poignance, drama, heart, great music, a unique 1970s style that is made to look like a movie actually made in 1970, not merely set then. It’s got old school logos and pops and crackles inserted to mimic the era. All three of its orphan characters are genuine and likeable. Small wonder that it’s the one movie this year that has generated little to no disagreement over its quality. The Focus Features entry is absolutely The Little Movie That Could and is nearly impossible not to love – and, when it comes to awards, root for.

SEE‘The Holdovers’ editor Kevin Tent: ‘I’m a big believer in, ‘When in doubt, cut it out” [Exclusive Video Interview]

Moreover, having interviewed over Zoom the film’s director, producer, writer and editor and all three of its main players, I’m here to tell you they’re all extremely cool people worthy of everyone’s support. And they’ve gone all in on supporting it, as has Focus,

But is it a fruitless pursuit to get behind a movie that’s so utterly charming but seemingly minor when compared with the behemoth that is “Oppenheimer”? I think not. Here are some reasons why:

  • Check out our Gold Derby odds. While it’s true that “Oppenheimer” is the overwhelming Best Picture choice among experts, editors and users alike, “The Holdovers” is there in second place out of 10, waiting in the wings, a sleeper ready to awaken and pounce.

  • After “Barbie” failed to snare nominations for director (Greta Gerwig) and actress (Margot Robbie), a scenario has started to build around the idea that “Oppenheimer” represents the patriarchy run amok. That is of course a message in “Barbie,” too, but it’s also whimsical and, ultimately, punctured. But you wonder if the perception could cost “Oppenheimer” some votes, particularly among female academy members.

SEEPaul Giamatti (‘The Holdovers’) on finally reuniting with Alexander Payne: ‘It wasn’t for lack of trying’

  • Lots and lots of upsets tend to happen at the Oscars in the Best Picture category. “Shakespeare in Love” beat “Saving Private Ryan” in 1999. “Crash” knocked off “Brokeback Mountain” in 2006. How can we ever forget that “Moonlight” snatched the big trophy from “La La Land” in 2017? And “Green Book” prevailed over “Roma” in 2019.

  • If it seems unlikely that the academy would honor a small but universally praised movie like “The Holdovers,” consider that these are the same voters who over the past several years gave the biggest prize to “CODA” and “Nomadland” and “Parasite” and “The Shape of Water.” Heft and major significance aren’t necessarily required. In fact, as we’ve come to know, box office success like that pulled off by “Oppenheimer” (international tally: $952 million) can work against you.

SEE‘The Holdovers’ writer David Hemingson on assuming it wasn’t really Alexander Payne on the phone but his friend pranking him [Exclusive Video Interview]

To continue, let’s look beyond “Oppenheimer” and “The Holdovers” to some of the other films nominated in the category. Much like “Oppenheimer,” “Killers of the Flower Moon” tackles a hard-hitting topic: the serial murders of Osage Nation members in 1920s Oklahoma. “Poor Things” tests the limits of some voters’ tastes with its divisive, often graphic story, though I loved it. Even “Barbie,” fun and wacky as it is, focuses on relevant issues about female objectification and toxic masculinity.

The difference with “The Holdovers” is that you need only be human to relate to its story. Even if it were to lose its acting and editing races, it could win screenplay and picture as its only two Oscars, following in the footsteps of a little film called “Spotlight” in 2019. Its path for Original Screenplay will have to go through “Anatomy of a Fall,” which could prove a tall order – but certainly no taller than beating “Oppenheimer” for picture. Another example of the screenplay/picture double win was “Argo” in 2013, which also took home the gold for editing.

Like “Spotlight,” “The Holdovers” is one of the few contenders for Best Picture besides “Barbie” and “American Fiction” that everyone can feel great about liking. While “Fiction” has proved to be a highly enjoyable ride that leaves you feeling good in a way that an examination of the man who invented the deadliest weapon in world history does not, we’ll focus here on one sleeper at a time here and leave it at that.

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