Ray Richmond: The Emmys decide to get sentimental for their 75th birthday. Will the nostalgia extend to the winners?

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You may have heard that the  75th edition of the Emmy Awards is finally happening on Monday, capping a nearly four-month delay resulting from the twin WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes. I think “Gunsmoke” and “The Andy Griffith Show” were still all the rage when this process began, JFK was President and a loaf of bread was a quarter. Alas, I exaggerate (though just a bit). But for this and no doubt other reasons, the TV Academy is clearly in a nostalgic mood, slating mini-reunions and tributes to and/or visual recreations of a dozen shows to mark the occasion.

The idea, according to the Emmy producers, is to honor television throughout the decades of its existence, from the 1950s (“I Love Lucy”), to the 1960s (“The Carol Burnett Show”), the 1970s (“All in the Family”), the 1980s (“Cheers”) and the 1990s (“Ally McBeal” and “Martin”) through the early 2000s (“The Sopranos,” which on Wednesday marked the 25th anniversary of its premiere).

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Here is how the historical tributes are stacking up along with announced participants for Monday’s Emmy ceremony (hosted by Anthony Anderson) from the Peacock Theater at L.A. LIVE in downtown Los Angeles and broadcast live on Fox at 5 p.m. PT/8 p.m. ET:

  • “All in the Family” (paying tribute to the late creator-producer Norman Lear)

  • “Ally McBeal” (Calista Flockhart, Greg Germann, Peter MacNicol, Gil Bellows)

  • “American Horror Story” (Connie Britton, Dylan McDermott)

  • “The Arsenio Hall Show”

  • “The Carol Burnett Show” (Carol Burnett)

  • “Cheers”

  • “Game of Thrones”

  • “Grey’s Anatomy” (Ellen Pompeo, Katherine Heigl, Justin Chambers, James Pickens Jr., Chandra Wilson)

  • “I Love Lucy”

  • “Martin” (Martin Lawrence, Tisha Campbell, Carl Anthony Payne II, Tichina Arnold)

  • “Saturday Night Live: Weekend Update” (Tina Fey, Amy Poehler)

  • “The Sopranos” (Lorraine Bracco, Michael Imperioli)

This is all very cool to celebrate the shows of yesteryear (or, in the case of “Grey’s Anatomy,” both the past and present). And it’s good to honor these iconic projects while some of the people associated with them are still around. When it comes to “I Love Lucy,” for example, only Keith Thibodeaux (a.k.a. Richard Keith), who played Little Ricky on the series, is still with us from a comedy that ended its run in 1957, or some 66 1/2 years ago. Time marches on.

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I don’t envy the job the producers have ahead of them, trying to slip in tributes to shows and individuals of the past while honoring 26 shows and people for their current work. I wouldn’t count on the program coming in on time. Then again, I never do.

What is of even greater interest to me because I work for Gold Derby is how all of this stands to impact the eventual winners come Monday night, unless “Cheers” somehow slipped back into the race without my knowledge. Specifically, how might shows with more sentiment on their side like “Ted Lasso” or “Barry” or even “The Marvelous Mrs. Maisel” perform in comedy series versus, say, a newcomer to the Emmy fray like “The Bear” or a one-time newbie like “Jury Duty”? Does the focus on TV’s historical narrative help the nominees that are relatively long in the tooth?

SEEEditors’ 2023 better-late-than-never Emmys final predictions slugfest

Here is why it probably doesn’t: the final round voting took place way back in August. The same focus on yesterday wasn’t at all in place yet. If it were true that this was going to make a difference, the way to bet in drama series wouldn’t be “Succession” with its swan song narrative but “Better Call Saul,” which premiered nine years ago and is still looking for its first Emmy win in its final year of qualification (and 53 total nominations). Heck, if it’s really all about nostalgia, “Saul” should honor Bob Odenkirk in drama actor. He has, after all, been associated with the concept going back to “Breaking Bad” in 2009, or 15 years ago.

But we all know that the Emmys aren’t necessarily about honoring the shows that are bidding farewell, or frankly always even the ones whose quality is best. There are a lot of factors that go into a show’s or a performer’s earning a trophy, and often it involves things over which the nominees have any control like body of work and momentum. Winning previously is hardly an indicator of whether you’ll win again, just as never winning doesn’t mean you’ll be seen as overdue. (Exception this year: Christopher Nolan, whose race for top director is a foregone conclusion in every awards ceremony, in part because “Oppenheimer” in a great film and partly because it’s perceived to be his turn.)

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The thing with the Emmys is, as soon as you think you’ve got them figured out, a result will leave you with jaw agape. I still remember being in the press room in 1989 (yes, I’m older than dirt) and hearing an audible gasp when the name Richard Mulligan was read for lead comedy actor on “Empty Nest,” inexplicably beating John Goodman for “Roseanne,” Michael J. Fox for “Family Ties,” Fred Savage for “The Wonder Years” and Ted Danson for “Cheers.” Ten years later, everyone (and I do mean everyone) was picking the first-year phenomenon “The Sopranos” to wipe the floor with everyone in Best Drama Series – only to lose to David E. Kelley’s “The Practice.”

My point is that the frontrunners should never feel too comfy. Except Chris Nolan. That’s a lock. And that’s for another day.

All of that said, here is who I’m picking. I wouldn’t lay down any bets in Vegas on them, and God knows I often finish far down the list in my overall success rate, but I’m nonetheless feeling pretty solid about these:

DRAMA SERIES: “Succession”

DRAMA ACTRESS: Sarah Snook, “Succession”

DRAMA ACTOR: Kieran Culkin, “Succession”

DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Jennifer Coolidge, “The White Lotus”

DRAMA SUPPORTING ACTOR: Matthew Macfadyen, “Succession”

SEE2023 Emmy Awards predictions by show: ‘Succession’ will end on a high note

COMEDY SERIES: “The Bear”

COMEDY ACTRESS: Christina Applegate, “Dead to Me” (my first big upset pick)

COMEDY ACTOR: Jeremy Allen White, “The Bear”

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Ayo Edebiri, “The Bear”

COMEDY SUPPORTING ACTOR: James Marsden, “Jury Duty” (my second big upset pick)

LIMITED SERIES: “Beef”

MOVIE/LIMITED ACTRESS: Ali Wong, “Beef”

MOVIE/LIMITED ACTOR: Evan Peters, “Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”

MOVIE/LIMITED SUPPORTING ACTRESS: Niecy Nash-Betts, “Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”

MOVIE/LIMITED SUPPORTING ACTOR: Paul Walter Hauser, “Black Bird”

I’ll be hanging out Monday night in the Emmy general press room, recording all of the interviews backstage for your enjoyment. See ya then.

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