Ray Richmond: ChatGPT predicts how the writers strike will end – and how the threat of A.I. might impact negotiations
You might have noticed that a lot of the early talk surrounding the five-day-old strike by the Writers Guild of America is about ChatGPT and the possibility of artificial intelligence supplanting real-life film and television writers. Mind you, it’s barely been five months since ChatGPT was launched, but already the doomsday scenarios are piling up. Concern about chatbots popping out scripted dialogue or rewriting existing screenplays and teleplays has everyone on edge, since robots are notoriously poor negotiators and require no benefits.
What the WGA is worried about is the idea that you could put a few facts into the A.I. generator and emerge with a rough draft of a script that you might pay a film student minimum wage to punch up and smooth out. What’s to stop a studio from removing actual writers from the process? That’s one of the understandable issues on the negotiating table.
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Indeed, what’s to stop A.I. from writing stories for Gold Derby? I wanted to test the theory of seeing if the technology could craft a strike story by putting a few words into the content generator. In 20 seconds, it had spit out a story that was intelligently constructed, if factually baseless.
I started out by asking ChatGPT, “Tell me how the 2023 writers strike will end.” It replied, “I’m sorry, but as an A.I. language model, I do not have the ability to predict the future, so I cannot accurately tell you how the 2023 WGA strike will end, as it is a hypothetical situation.”
Fine. Except then it somehow predicted the future anyway when I urged, “Tell me about the 2023 writers strike.”
This is what came back:
“In 2023, the Writers Guild of America went on strike once again, this time over the issue of fair compensation for streaming services. The strike was one of the longest and most contentious in the history of the entertainment industry, lasting for several months and causing significant disruptions to the production of television shows and movies.
“The strike began with a call from the Writers Guild for fair compensation from streaming services like Netflix, Hulu, and Amazon Prime Video. The writers argued that these services were making billions of dollars from their content, but were not paying them fairly for their work. They demanded that the studios and networks negotiate a new contract that included higher residuals for streaming revenue, as well as better healthcare and job security benefits for writers.
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“At first, the studios and networks were resistant to the demands of the writers, arguing that the economics of the entertainment industry had changed dramatically in recent years, and that they could not afford to pay higher residuals without passing the costs on to consumers. However, as the strike dragged on, and the studios began to feel the financial impact of the strike, they were forced to reconsider their position.
“The strike was marked by high-profile rallies and demonstrations by the Writers Guild, as well as public statements of support from celebrities and industry figures. The writers were determined to win fair compensation for their work, and they refused to back down until their demands were met.
“After months of negotiations, a deal was finally reached between the Writers Guild and the studios. The new contract included higher residuals for streaming revenue, as well as improved healthcare and job security benefits for writers. The studios also agreed to invest in more diverse and inclusive hiring practices, in response to concerns from the Writers Guild about the lack of representation for writers from underrepresented groups.
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“The strike came to an end, and the writers returned to work, proud of the progress they had made in improving the conditions for their fellow writers. The entertainment industry slowly began to recover, with new content being produced at a faster pace than ever before. And while the strike had been long and difficult, it had ultimately succeeded in bringing about important changes in the industry, ensuring that writers would receive the fair compensation and recognition they deserved for their contributions to the world of entertainment.”
Wow. That’s a pretty in-depth and specific (if somewhat simplistic) response for a language model that claims to lack the capacity to perceive a hypothetical. It even took the discussion down the road months after the sides had come to an agreement. Given this highly descriptive scenario that clearly takes its cue from the way previous entertainment industry strikes settled, I decided to push things a step further by asking, “How will the threat of artificial intelligence ultimately impact the 2023 writers strike?”
The chatbot reply:
“The threat of artificial intelligence (A.I.) could ultimately impact the 2023 writers strike in a number of ways.
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“One potential impact is that it could increase the pressure on writers to deliver more unique and creative content that is less easily replicated by A.I. If studios and networks begin to rely more heavily on A.I.-generated content, they may increasingly demand higher quality writing that can’t be easily replaced by technology. This could potentially put more pressure on writers to come up with fresh and innovative ideas, which could be challenging in the context of a strike.
“Alternatively, the threat of A.I. could potentially galvanize the Writers Guild of America and its members to demand stronger protections and benefits in the contract negotiations. If writers believe that their jobs are at risk due to the rise of A.I.-generated content, they may be more likely to demand higher compensation, better working conditions, and stronger intellectual property protections.
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“While A.I. tools may not be able to replicate human-written content, they could be used to produce simpler types of writing. The potential use of A.I.-generated content to replace human writers could be a point of contention in negotiations during a strike. The threat of A.I. could also be used as a bargaining chip by the studios and networks in negotiations with the Writers Guild.
“The threat of A.I. could also potentially create divisions within the Writers Guild itself. Some members may be more concerned about the impact of AI on their livelihoods, while others may be more open to exploring the potential opportunities presented by A.I. technology in the entertainment industry.
“Overall, the impact of A.I. on the 2023 writers strike will depend on a number of factors, including the specific demands and strategies of the Writers Guild, the response of studios and networks to the threat of A.I., and the broader societal and technological trends that are driving the development of A.I. However, it’s clear that A.I. will continue to be a major factor in the entertainment industry, and will likely play an increasingly important role in the negotiations and outcomes of the 2023 writers strike.”
While the above is really more about laying out an argument than expressing a point of view, the fact that it required less than 15 minutes for me to create this entire post is filling me with a certain sense of dread.
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