Ray Richmond: My 2024 Oscar nominations review
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Rolled out of bed at 4:30 today because, you know, Academy Award nominations. You may have heard they were today? Over here at Gold Derby, it’s like Christmas morning and everyone’s birthday rolled into one. And the good news is that I didn’t hear a lot of grumbling about what and who got screwed over but more how for the most part the Film Academy got it right – except for, you know, the ongoing snub of “The Color Purple,” which was evidently a bunch of Danielle Brooks and not much else. I’ll get to that in a moment.
As we look ahead to the March 10 ceremony at the just-because-we-can hour of 4 p.m. PT, it’s heartening to see that everyone’s focus has officially shifted away from the joint WGA and SAG-AFTRA strikes of spring, summer and fall to 6 1/2 weeks of delicious anticipation and debate. And I say there’s no time like the present to begin the wrangling. So let’s take a ride down Prediction Alley and forecast where some of the biggest battles will and won’t be.
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SEE2024 Oscar nominations: ‘Oppenheimer’ leads all films with lucky 13, ‘Poor Things’ second with 11
The Best Picture Picture
Sure, the $952 million juggernaut known as “Oppenheimer” goes in as the big favorite, and that’s surely the way to bet. (Not that we’re advocating actual gambling, ladies and gentlemen.) But let’s remember these are the same people who just a year ago went with a highly unconventional choice called “Everything Everywhere All at Once” rather than something a lot more epic like “All Quiet on the Western Front.” So don’t engrave that statuette just yet. Momentum could still build for something significantly more offbeat like “Poor Things” or crowd pleasing like “The Holdovers” or even “American Fiction.”
“The Color Purple”? It continued an awards season trend by getting excluded here despite being wholly deserving. Maybe it was its late arrival on the screening scene. Maybe it’s just that the academy really, really doesn’t like period dramas rebooted as musicals. In any case, its dissing is now complete.
Best Director, a.k.a. the Christopher Nolan Coronation
A lot of people (most?) thought that the estrogen in this lineup was going to belong to Greta Gerwig for “Barbie” rather than Justine Triet for “Anatomy of a Fall.” I was in fact one of those people. I also thought Alexander Payne was a fairly safe shoo-in for “The Holdovers,” given that his picture and screenplay and lead and supporting performers made the nominee cut. But apparently the movie directed itself, so never mind. Ditto Gerwig’s $1.4 billion worldwide phenomenon. This is all a longwinded way of noting that should “Oppenheimer” director Christopher Nolan not win this thing, it would be one of the bigger upsets in Oscar history. He’s considered overdue. It’s his turn. It is written.
The Best Actress Lineup
Yes, she played a children’s doll come to life, but Margot Robbie was still considered a heavy favorite to crack this lineup. Surprise! Her slot went to “Nyad’s” Annette Bening (her fifth nomination) instead, and frankly, it’s hard to break too much of a sweat over it. She deserves the bid simply for surviving such a grueling waterborne shoot. But who are we kidding? This has been cast for months as a two-woman race between Emma Stone for “Poor Things” and Lily Gladstone for “Killers of the Flower Moon,” and that doesn’t figure to change much over the next several weeks. Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”) was so terrific she’d be an easy winner in any other year. But this isn’t any other year.
SEETop 20 Oscar snubs of actors and actresses: Margot Robbie, Leonardo DiCaprio, Willem Dafoe …
The Best Actor Faceoff
Anyone who was really paying attention could see it coming. Leonardo DiCaprio’s snub for “Killers of the Flower Moon” was a slow motion fall from favor that gained momentum when he failed to make the SAG Awards lineup. Instead, his spot fell to Colman Domingo for “Rustin,” and there aren’t going to be a lot of people upset about that. In terms of very early favorites, Paul Giamatti emerges as the presumptive frontrunner for “The Holdovers,” in part because he already won the Golden Globe and Critics Choice honors and partially because he deserves it. Plus, we want to see him bring his trophy to In-‘N-Out Burger again.
But don’t discount Bradley Cooper, so memorable for his depiction of Leonard Bernstein in “Maestro.” Cooper now has a dozen Oscar bids overall – including three for “Maestro” alone – and he’s still in search of his first win. No one has a more compelling overdue narrative than he, and actor would seem to be his best shot this time.
The Best Supporting Actress Square-Off
So, America Ferrera gets in for “Barbie” but Gerwig and Robbie don’t for their primary categories? I didn’t see that one coming. Neither did you, I’m guessing. But a bigger crime would have been committed had Danielle Brooks been excluded along with everything else for “Color Purple.” Thankfully, she wasn’t. I would say this is shaping up as a two-actress race, but the early indicators are that Da’Vine Joy Randolph is threatening to pull a Ke Huy Quan and sweep through awards season unscathed for “The Holdovers.” Unless she loses at SAG, I’m sticking with that.
Best Supporting Actor, or Robert Downey Jr. and Four Other Guys
It was noteworthy that the Oscars went against SAG and nominated the other guy from “Poor Things” (Mark Ruffalo) rather than Willem Dafoe. But that’s showbiz. I went with my head rather than my heart in thinking young Dominic Sessa would get cited for his superb work in “The Holdovers,” but instead his slot went to Sterling K. Brown for “American Fiction” – and I can more than live with that. It’s a little weird that Ryan Gosling was honored here while Robbie wasn’t. Does that mean Ken emerges triumphant? He won’t win in this category. This one has Robert Downey Jr.’s name on it for “Oppenheimer,” and it’s tough to see anyone else seriously challenging.
‘Oppenheimer’ vs. ‘Barbie’
I love the fact that “Oppenheimer” is going up against its summertime blockbuster partner “Barbie” in five categories, including Supporting Actress, Best Picture, Adapted Screenplay, Production Design and Costume Design. But it’s hilarious that “Oppenheimer” was nominated for makeup and hair but “Barbie” wasn’t. Because when you think about J. Robert Oppenheimer, I’m sure the first thing that pops into your head is how neatly coiffed and groomed the Father of the Atomic Bomb was. Barbie? Evidently not so much.
PREDICT the 2024 Oscar winners through March 10
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