Ranking the quarterbacks in the Big Ten entering the 2021 football season

There is no position in professional or collegiate sports more important than quarterback.

Look at Wisconsin’s Graham Mertz last season. When he played well, Wisconsin won every game. When he struggled and turned the ball over, they lost.

Mertz’s 2020 wasn’t dissimilar to that of other quarterbacks across the conference: general struggles but glimpses of really good play.

2021, now, will present an interesting case study in all of these guys. The main question: how much did 2020’s challenging situation affect how the signal-callers performed as the year progressed?

We’ll see soon enough.

For now, here is where every quarterback in the Big Ten stands entering the 2021 football season:

No. 14: Brandon Peters -- Illinois

Mandatory Credit: Jeff Hanisch-USA TODAY Sports

Peters enters his third season under center for the Fighting Illini and first under head coach Bret Bielema. Mediocrity has defined his college career, entering his fifth total college season with a career 6.4 yards-per-attempt and 53.5 completion percentage. Pair Peters' limitations with a down year for Illinois to begin Bielema's tenure, and he's at the bottom of these rankings.

No. 13: Ryan Hilinski -- Northwestern

Nov 7, 2020; Columbia, South Carolina, USA; South Carolina Gamecocks quarterback Ryan Hilinski (3) passes against the Texas A&M Aggies in the fourth quarter at Williams-Brice Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeff Blake-USA TODAY Sports

The South Carolina transfer was okay as a starter back in 2019, finishing the year with 58% completion and an 11-5 touchdown-to-interception ratio. But he then barely played in 2020 and now joins a Northwestern offense that has relied heavily on the transfer portal as of late to find replacements at the position. Who knows, maybe former five-star recruit Hunter Johnson wins the job and runs with it. But expect a regression at QB for the Wildcats in 2021.

No. 12: Noah Vedral -- Rutgers

Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Vedral has 19 collegiate games under his belt---6 at UCF, 6 and Nebraska and 7 now at Rutgers. But even though the collegiate experience is there, his numbers really don't jump off the page. 9-8 TD--INT and just 5.7 adjusted yards-per-attempt. He'll continue to complete passes at a high rate for the Scarlet Knights, but his play-making ability isn't comparable to the names at the top of this list.

No. 11: Payton Thorne/Anthony Russo -- Michigan State

Michigan State's Payton Thorne throws a pass during the spring football game on Saturday, April 24, 2021, at Spartan Stadium in East Lansing. Credit: Nick King/Lansing State Journal-Imagn Content Services, LLC

Depending on who wins the job in East Lansing, the Spartans could have two different spectrums of experience under center. Thorne has appeared in just four collegiate games, riding a completion percentage of 56.5 and a 1:1 touchdown-to-interception ratio. The transfer Russo, on the other hand, went through three seasons at Temple that included nearly 900 pass attempts. Either way, though, the Spartans won't be great under center. Improved from last year? Probably. But they are still a few years away from contending in the Big Ten East.

No. 10: Jack Plummer/Aiden O'Connell -- Purdue

Purdue Boilermakers quarterback Jack Plummer (13) rolls out of the pocket against the Nebraska Cornhuskers in the second half at Ross-Ade Stadium. Credit: Thomas J. Russo-USA TODAY Sports

Plummer and O'Connell produced similar numbers in split time last season, each hovering around the 900-yard, 65% completion, 8-2 TD--INT range. Each presents an average option for the Boilermakers. Whoever starts may well end up being better than names higher on this list, but the ceiling at QB for Purdue is much lower than some of their Big Ten counterparts.

No. 9: Cade McNamara--Michigan

Michigan quarterback Cade McNamara calls for a snap against Penn State during the first half of Michigan's 27-17 loss at Michigan Stadium on Saturday, Nov. 28, 2020. Credit: Junfu Han-Imagn Content Services, LLC

Another year, another new face as the Week 1 starter for Jim Harbaugh and the Michigan Wolverines. McNamara saw action last season after the benching of Joe Milton, though it wasn't enough to truly diagnose what kind of quarterback he'll be in 2021. I'll just say this: Harbaugh and his staff better hope he's able to live up to the four-star rating he received during his recruiting cycle.

No. 8: Adrian Martinez -- Nebraska

Nov 27, 2020; Iowa City, Iowa, USA; Nebraska Cornhuskers quarterback Adrian Martinez (2) and Iowa Hawkeyes defensive tackle Daviyon Nixon (54) in action against the Iowa Hawkeyes at Kinnick Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jeffrey Becker-USA TODAY Sports

Things have gotten tougher for Nebraska QB Adrian Martinez as his career has moved along. The rushing ability has always been there, but we've seen a steady regression in his throwing numbers since an impressive debut season in 2018. 2018: 65% completion, 2617 yards, 7.5 adjusted yards-per-attempt, 17-8 touchdown-to-interception ratio 2019: 60% completion, 1956 yards, 7 adjusted yards-per-attempt, 10-9 touchdown-to-interception ratio 2020: 71% completion, 1055 yards, 6.6 adjusted yards-per-attempt, 4-3 touchdown-to-interception ratio Like many of the other quarterbacks on this list, 2021 lines up to be a prime bounce-back opportunity for Martinez. He still likely won't crack the top group of quarterbacks in the conference, though, and that's why a middle-of-the-pack ranking is the fit here.

No. 7: Spencer Petras -- Iowa

Dec 12, 2020; Iowa City, IA, USA; Iowa sophomore quarterback Spencer Petras fires a pass in the fourth quarter against Wisconsin on Saturday, Dec. 12, 2020, at Kinnick Stadium in Iowa City, Iowa. Mandatory Credit: Byron Houlgrave-USA TODAY NETWORK

Spencer Petras was helped greatly in 2020 by a stud WR in Ihmir Smith-Marsette and another great year in the Hawkeye backfield. He has the ability to make impressive throws, I'll give him that. But there were also some real head-scratchers throughout the year. https://twitter.com/benzkenney/status/1338516642133905418 Then you look at the numbers: 9-5 TD--INT, 6.2 adjusted yards-per-attempt, 57% completion. He did enough to lead the Hawkeyes to a 6-2 record, though there were moments where you questioned his decision-making and accuracy. Petras, like Mertz, had a lot to overcome during the 2020 season. That makes you think his 2021 output will be a lot better. But of the Mertz, Petras, Sean Clifford trio, the Iowa quarterback is the one I'm a little more dubious about.

No. 6: Sean Clifford -- Penn State

Penn State Nittany Lions quarterback Sean Clifford (14) throws during the first quarter against the Memphis Tigers at AT&T Stadium. Credit: Kevin Jairaj-USA TODAY Sports

Sean Clifford is a really interesting case study entering the 2021 season. He lit it up in 2019, throwing for 2654 yards, nearly 60% completion, 8.8 adjusted yards-per-attempt and a 23-7 TD--INT ratio. Penn State went 11-2 that year and finished No. 9 in the AP Poll. But then the team struggled mightily in 2020, losing each of their first five contests. Part of the offensive struggle was due to a depleted running back room, but some also came thanks to Clifford's 9 interceptions. So how much of the regression was due to 2020's challenging circumstances? I think a lot of it. The Badgers will see what the 2021 version of Clifford will bring in Week 1. I'm betting on that being much closer to his 2019 form than that from 2020.

No. 5: Taulia Tagovailoa -- Maryland

Oct 30, 2020; College Park, Maryland, USA; Maryland Terrapins quarterback Taulia Tagovailoa (3) throws during the overtime against the Minnesota Golden Gophers at Capital One Field at Maryland Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Tagovailoa, like many of his Big Ten counterparts, was frustratingly inconsistent in 2020. He had some remarkable performances including a 394-yard, 3-touchdown contest against a bad Minnesota defense. But he also had some real struggles, finishing the season with a 7-7 TD--INT and an adjusted yards-per-attempt under 7. But the talent is real for the former Alabama quarterback. And after getting his feet wet in 2020, much like Graham Mertz, 2021 is looking like a breakout campaign for the Maryland youngster.

No. 4: Tanner Morgan -- Minnesota

Oct 26, 2019; Minneapolis, MN, USA; Minnesota Golden Gophers quarterback Tanner Morgan (2) calls out a play change at the line of scrimmage in the first quarter against the Maryland Terrapins at TCF Bank Stadium. Mandatory Credit: Jesse Johnson-USA TODAY Sports

Stop me if you've heard this before: after a remarkable 2019 campaign, Morgan really struggled during 2020's shortened season. A good part of that can be attributed to the departure of wideout Tyler Johnson and a Golden Gopher offense that wasn't able to repeat 2019's impressive down-field numbers. But experience is key here for Morgan, and with Mohamed Ibrahim's stellar presence in the run game as well as Chris Autman-Bell on the outside, a bounce-back campaign is likely. When you look through the quarterbacks in the conference, struggles in 2020 are so tough to judge. But when you have a veteran that's done it before in a big way, you have to think a return to good form is likely.

No. 3: C.J. Stroud -- Ohio State

Team Brutus quarterback C.J. Stroud (7) throws a pass during the Ohio State Buckeyes football spring game at Ohio Stadium in Columbus on Saturday, April 17, 2021. Credit: Adam Cairns/Columbus Dispatch-Imagn Content Services, LLC

2020's No. 2-ranked pro-style quarterback in the country will look to continue Ohio State's impressive play at the quarterback position. Why is Stroud No. 3? Because we haven't seen him throw a collegiate pass yet, that's all. But the talent is there, and Ohio State is as loaded as anybody in the country at wide receiver. I wouldn't be surprised if he finished the year at the top of these rankings.

No. 2: Graham Mertz -- Wisconsin

Credit: Wisconsin Athletics

So many factors played into Mertz's up-and-down 2020 campaign. The offense was decimated by injuries, the program missed two full weeks after a COVID-19 outbreak and there was no consistent run game to help Mertz find his form. But the story was still told by his turnovers. A three-interception, four-turnover contest against Northwestern started a stretch saw the Badger signal-caller throw five picks in three games and struggle to finish drives in the red zone. Looking forward to 2021, the offense is healthy and talented, the backfield projects to be much improved and Mertz has a full offseason to develop and fix what went wrong last season. We probably won't see an Illinois-level performance again, but I'd bet 2021 sees Mertz rise near the top of the Big Ten's quarterbacks and put the Badgers in a legitimate Big Ten Championship discussion.

No. 1: Michael Penix Jr. -- Indiana

Indiana Hoosiers quarterback Michael Penix Jr. (9) looks to pass during the first quarter against the Maryland Terrapins at Capital One Field at Maryland Stadium. Credit: Tommy Gilligan-USA TODAY Sports

Before his ACL injury, Michael Penix was far and away the best quarterback in the Big Ten. 14 touchdowns in only five games, big-time outputs including a 491-yard day against Ohio State and a PFF rating nearing 83. And remember, he did all of that while playing behind a struggling offensive line. As long as the knee is healthy, there won't be much stopping Penix from returning to his perch atop the Big Ten's quarterback rankings and bringing Indiana into the Big Ten East discussion.

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