Raiders vs. Texans betting odds, picks: Can Oakland contain Deshaun Watson?
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Raiders at Texans Betting Odds
● Odds: Texans -7
● Over/Under: 51.5
● Kickoff: 4:25 p.m. ET
● TV Channel: CBS
Odds as of Thursday evening and via PointsBet, where Action Network users can access an exclusive promotion to get a 200% deposit match (deposit $50, bet with $150).
Deshaun Watson is quickly becoming one of the most feared quarterbacks in the NFL. Now he and the Texans face a struggling Raiders defense. Can Oakland overcome a disastrous weekend in Green Bay on Sunday?
Our experts break down every angle of this matchup, featuring Sean Koerner’s projected odds and a staff pick.
Raiders-Texans Injury Report
The good news for the Raiders is wide receiver Tyrell Williams (foot) has returned to practice. The bad news is that running back Josh Jacobs (shoulder) hasn’t practiced on Wednesday or Thursday and could miss Sunday’s game. If he’s out, DeAndre Washington and Jalen Richard would work as the primary backs.
Will Fuller (hamstring) isn’t expected to suit up for this game and could potentially miss a few weeks, per NFL.com’s Ian Rapoport. His likely absence will lead to increased run for Kenny Stills in two-WR sets with Keke Coutee running from the slot. Even with Fuller’s absence, the Texans’ 29.25 implied team total is the third-highest mark for Sunday’s games. — Justin Bailey
Note: Info as of Thursday. See our Injury Report for daily practice participation and game statuses up until kickoff.
Biggest Mismatch
Deshaun Watson vs. Raiders Pass Defense
An inability to pressure the quarterback is a recipe for disaster in today’s NFL, so it’s no wonder the Raiders were torched for five touchdowns by Aaron Rodgers despite the absence of star receiver Davante Adams.
Oakland’s 14.0 percent pressure rate is worst in the league, and Watson is another QB that can exploit them. Watson will be without Fuller, but he should have no problem picking apart the Raiders and distributing the ball to DeAndre Hopkins, Kenny Stills and Coutee if he’s not under duress.
Per Pro Football Focus, Watson’s 78.8 percent completion percentage from a clean pocket is ranked second among QBs. — Chris Raybon
Sean Koerner’s Projected Odds
● Projected Spread: Texans -7
● Projected Total: 50
This 5.5-point opener offered quite a bit of value, but it’s since been bet up to 7, where it’s parked on the key number. Therefore the value in that market has dried up. However, the total has crept up from 50 up to 51.5.
Books appear to be getting flooded with over tickets (66 percent) and money (93 percent) as of writing (see live public betting data here), and I’m not exactly sure why. I get why people would be investing in a Texans over, but the Raiders could help make this game lean toward an under game flow.
Watson typically plays best when the Texans are trailing. Given we can assume a positive game script is much more likely here, they could opt to lean on Carlos Hyde and the ground game to run the clock and help shorten the game. And on the other side of the ball, the Raiders are second-to-last in pace of play (per Football Outsiders) and remain a slower-paced team when in a close or trailing game script (sixth-slowest).
This matchup leans toward the under, but it’s worth seeing if the market can bump it up to 52 or even 52.5 before biting on it. As you can read more about in this great piece by my colleague PJ Walsh, 53 and 54 are fairly harmless numbers for a total. — Sean Koerner
Expert Picks
Mike Randle: Texans -7
The Raiders have played very well during a difficult stretch of consecutive road games — Oakland hasn’t played at home since Sept. 15 — but we started to see some fatigue set in this past Sunday in Green Bay.
With wide receiver Tyrell Williams possibly out again with a foot injury, the Raiders offense lacks playmakers. Their best receiving option is tight end Darren Waller, who faces a difficult matchup against Houston. For some context, the Texans have allowed the eighth-fewest fantasy points to opposing tight ends this season, giving up only one receiving touchdown.
Houston should be able to take advantage of an Oakland pass defense that ranked 26th entering Week 7, and just allowed 429 passing yards and six total touchdowns to Rodgers.
I’m grabbing the Texans against a travel-weary Raiders team playing its fifth consecutive road game and I would bet this up to Houston -8.
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