Preview: UFC Fight Night 216 ‘Cannonier vs. Strickland’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship has capped off its last few years with some enjoyable shows, and the promotion appears set to continue the trend in 2022 with UFC Fight Night 216 on Saturday at the UFC Apex in Las Vegas. Middleweight contenders Jared Cannonier and Sean Strickland will collide head-on and provide some action in the main event slot, while the lightweight co-headliner between Arman Tsarukyan and Damir Ismagulov figures to offer more of a high-level technical bent. Beyond that, the lineup features a solid mix of prospects and veterans. In the latter category, Alex Caceres meets Julian Erosa and Drew Dober faces Bobby Green in showcase affairs that should result in non-stop entertainment.

Now to the UFC Fight Night “Cannonier vs. Strickland” preview:

Middleweights

#3 MW | Jared Cannonier (15-6, 8-6 UFC) vs. #7 MW | Sean Strickland (25-4, 12-4 UFC)

ODDS: Strickland (-115), Cannonier (-105)

Things did not exactly work out for Strickland in his last fight. Beyond his unique personality away from competition, Strickland has had an interesting evolution inside the cage since he made his UFC debut in 2014. Having started fighting as a teenager, Strickland was already a well-practiced veteran despite his relative youth, and that came through in a poised and patient style that mixed counterstriking and wrestling. That was enough to get “Tarzan” to the fringes of the UFC’s welterweight rankings, with losses to Santiago Ponzinibbio, Kamaru Usman and Elizeu Zaleski dos Santos all aging quite well. Then came a career-threatening motorcycle accident in 2018 that left Strickland out of action for over two years, and he returned a much different fighter. Strickland had bulked up to middleweight and became much more of a bully, using an upright stance and reliance on his defensive vision to pressure and pour on volume in the hopes of eventually breaking his opponent. Strickland was not immune to rough moments, particularly with his lack of finishing ability allowing his opponents to hang around, but his consistency, durability and ability to use his wrestling defensively allowed him to outlast all of his opposition heading into his July bout against Alex Pereira. The winner seemed poised for a title shot, and the dynamic of the fight centered a lot around whether Strickland would bring back his long-dormant wrestling against an elite kickboxer like Pereira, given that going toe-to-toe with the Brazilian seemed like a sure recipe for defeat. Indeed, Strickland was stubborn enough to charge Pereira down and got quickly annihilated for his efforts. He attempts to rebound here against another dangerous opponent in Cannonier.

Cannonier was not much of a factor during his first three years in the UFC, first as an undersized heavyweight and then as a decent light heavyweight who quickly plateaued. As soon as he made the cut down to 185 pounds, it became apparent that “The Killa Gorilla” would be a problem in his latest weight class. He was enough of a physical force to stifle David Branch and score a second-round knockout. His 2019 campaign was a breakout year for Cannonier as a potential contender, as he chopped down Anderson Silva and ran over Jack Hermansson. However, a 2020 loss to Robert Whittaker did show the technical gaps in Cannonier’s game, even if “Bobby Knuckles” had to break out a lot of his tools to get the win. That still did not do much to dull Cannonier’s momentum as a title contender. With the amount of horsepower the Alaskan brings to the table, it is still difficult to cleanly outmaneuver him for 15 or 25 minutes. After wins over Kelvin Gastelum and Derek Brunson, the latter via knockout, Cannonier got his shot at Israel Adesanya in July. Unsurprisingly, Adesanya was another opponent who could keep Cannonier at bay for five long rounds, though Pereira’s subsequent title victory does open up the hopes that “The Killa Gorilla” can still make one more charge at the belt despite being 38 years old. It will be interesting to see if Strickland can be the man to beat Cannonier head-on, as this is a clear two true outcome fight. Strickland’s going to march Cannonier down and either outpace him badly—and possibly tire him to the point of scoring a finish down the stretch—or get absolutely annihilated by another one of the middleweight division’s hardest hitters. Cannonier does not have as much craft as Pereira, so the question becomes how much this fight turns into Strickland’s win over Uriah Hall, another patient one-shot knockout artist. Cannonier does have a bit of problem-solving to his approach, so the bet is that he can find something after a few minutes, though win or lose, this figures to be definitive. The pick is Cannonier via first-round knockout.

Jump To »
Cannonier vs. Strickland
Tsarukyan vs. Ismagulov
Albazi vs. Costa
Erosa vs. Caceres
Dober vs. Green
Oleksiejczuk vs. Brundage
The Prelims

Lightweights

#9 LW | Arman Tsarukyan (18-3, 5-2 UFC) vs. #12 LW | Damir Ismagulov (24-1, 5-0 UFC)

ODDS: Tsarukyan (-190), Ismagulov (+160)

He remains one of the brightest young talents in the sport, but it will be interesting to see how Tsarukyan rebounds from an unexpected speed bump during his march up the lightweight ladder. Tsarukyan was marked as a potential future champion even before he made his UFC debut in 2019, and he acquitted himself well in a ridiculously tough spot, losing a decision to Islam Makhachev in his first trip to the Octagon. That still might be the toughest win of the current lightweight champion’s UFC career, and Tsarukyan continued to prove himself as a top-level fighter, developing his striking to complement his strong wrestling and rising to the moment with finishes against Christos Giagos and Joel Alvarez. That earned Tsarukyan his first UFC main event in June opposite fellow underrated lightweight Mateusz Gamrot, which turned out to be an excellent fight with a controversial decision. Tsarukyan proved himself as the more effective striker even as he tired down the stretch. However, Gamrot’s constant ability to find takedowns earned him the scorecards despite Tsarukyan clearly causing more damage. At any rate, the performance did not do much to hurt Tsarukyan’s stock, and he looks to get his momentum rolling once again against Ismagulov, who might be the most underrated fighter on the UFC roster. The Russian can hold his own just about anywhere but works with a cautious style built around neutralizing his opponents. It is an approach that would still likely lead to a finish if Ismagulov was more of a dynamic athlete, but as it stands, it usually means he is walking a bit of a tightrope, as his opponents usually wind up having the biggest moments of the fight even as he puts together a clear decision victory. Injuries have limited Ismagulov to two fights since 2019—another reason his success has not resulted in much momentum—so it is nice to see him get a big opportunity. Tsarukyan can use his athleticism and aggression as a bit of a blunt instrument at times, and Ismagulov is the type of precise fighter that can keep him at bay with some well-placed strikes. Ismagulov is also a solid wrestler, so there is a chance he can play matador for the better part of three rounds and find a victory, but it is likelier that Tsarukyan finds some point of success over 15 minutes to turn the fight in his favor. While Tsarukyan can become reliant on that pressure and aggression, he is often right to do so. The pick is Tsarukyan via decision.

Jump To »
Cannonier vs. Strickland
Tsarukyan vs. Ismagulov
Albazi vs. Costa
Erosa vs. Caceres
Dober vs. Green
Oleksiejczuk vs. Brundage
The Prelims

Flyweights

#8 FLW | Amir Albazi (15-1, 3-0 UFC) vs. Alessandro Costa (12-2, 0-0 UFC)

ODDS: Albazi (-425), Costa (+350)

If nothing else, it is good to see Albazi keep up an active schedule after some long layoffs during his time in the UFC. “The Prince” might be a bit more of a finished product than expected—he just turned 29 but has been a pro since 2009—but he has shown an ability to fight a smart fight and pick his spots, particularly with an effective grappling game. Albazi has not been tested much in his first three UFC fights, so it is basically time for him to get a move up the division against a tougher opponent. To that end, this was initially supposed to be a big spot for Albazi against Brandon Royval, but with the latter injured, he now faces a late-notice replacement and UFC newcomer in Costa. A graduate of the most recent season of Dana White’s Contender Series, Costa is a solid addition the UFC’s flyweight roster and falls in the same mold as Albazi’s recent UFC opponents, taking a low-output, high-power approach that cuts opposite of the 125-pound norm. That led to a flat decision win on DWCS where both men were overly patient. Costa did not earn a contract, but “Nono” showed what he can do in his lone fight since, scoring a knockout in just 12 seconds. Costa does provide some danger with his knockout power, particularly since he is a solid grappler who might be able to neutralize Albazi’s best weapons in spots. However, this should be another fight where Albazi slowly takes over and impresses once again. The pick is Albazi via second-round submission.

Jump To »
Cannonier vs. Strickland
Tsarukyan vs. Ismagulov
Albazi vs. Costa
Erosa vs. Caceres
Dober vs. Green
Oleksiejczuk vs. Brundage
The Prelims

Featherweights

Julian Erosa (28-9, 6-5 UFC) vs. Alex Caceres (19-13, 14-11 UFC)

ODDS: Erosa (-165), Caceres (+140)

Every once in a while, a veteran fighter makes an unexpected jump after any potential improvements have been written off. Erosa is one of those cases. The die was seemingly cast on “Juicy J” for years as a fighter just good enough for the fringes of the UFC, enough so that he signed with the promotion three separate times, only getting this most recent call as a late-notice opponent when the UFC was scrambling for options during the pandemic. Erosa has always been a reliably aggressive fighter and spent most of his career with just enough defensive slickness to get him into trouble. Erosa could get through his wins with little damage on the regional scene, but the better athletes in the UFC almost always found a defensive opening against him to score a finish with little issue. By the third UFC go-round, Erosa had gained enough experience that it was just plain harder to knock him out—a tone he immediately set by winning his return fight via third-round comeback against Sean Woodson. A 2021 knockout loss to Seung Woo Choi suggested the old playbook still mostly held true, but Erosa has rebounded and been an obviously smarter fighter in his last few bouts, putting together a practiced performance to score the biggest win of his career against Hakeem Dawodu in September. It has been a similar story of improvement through experience for Caceres, though “Bruce Leeroy” has done most of his learning on the UFC stage. Caceres had a particularly rough start to his UFC career coming off “The Ultimate Fighter” in 2010, but the UFC stuck through him until he rose to potential contender status with an upset win over Sergio Pettis in 2014. However, Caceres never quite got over the hump against elite-level competition and instead settled in as a reliably entertaining but frustrating veteran. Caceres can do a bit of everything, but he has historically just flowed along with whatever fight his opponent is trying to pursue, minimizing his strengths and putting him in a tough spot against potent specialists. Caceres has forced the issue a bit more in recent years and cleaned up on prospect duty during the pandemic era with five straight wins, even though his March loss was a clear reminder that even at his best, he can still run up against a physical ceiling. Caceres should have a speed advantage that he could leverage to make this a frustrating fight for Erosa, but “Juicy J” does seem to have finally struck a balance in terms of effective aggression that should help him pick his spots and win this fight, even though there should be a lot of back-and-forth exchanges. The pick is Erosa via decision.

Jump To »
Cannonier vs. Strickland
Tsarukyan vs. Ismagulov
Albazi vs. Costa
Erosa vs. Caceres
Dober vs. Green
Oleksiejczuk vs. Brundage
The Prelims

Lightweights

Drew Dober (25-11, 11-7 UFC) vs. Bobby Green (29-13-1, 10-8-1 UFC)

ODDS: Dober (-150), Green (+130)

It took each of these fighters a while to get their UFC careers going, but they meet at the right time in what should be a barnburner. For a good while, it looked like Green’s UFC career would be absolutely cursed. A win over Josh Thomson in 2014 served as a bit of a breakout for the charismatic veteran, but his career eventually lost all of its momentum thanks to a morass of injury layoffs and controversial decision losses. However, he was one of a few fighters who managed to break through during the chaotic nature of the pandemic. His health cooperated enough that Green stepped in and fought as often as possible, and the judges finally started rewarding his counter-heavy style with some success on the scorecards. Since the return of fans, Green has separated himself enough as a crowd favorite to ride the most high-profile success of his career, even getting the late-notice call for a main event against Islam Makhachev in February. It did not go particularly well for Green, but the loss did not hurt his stock much. He is right back to prominent spots, including this potential war. Dober hung around the bottom of the roster and did not show much for his first two years in the UFC, but he finally put together a strong performance in a breakout win over Scott Holtzman in 2016, showing himself as an effective high-volume kickboxer. Dober was still fairly lost against any sort of high-level wrestler, but he earned a name as an exciting lightweight even before developing some knockout power to his game circa 2019. A lot of the same issues persist when it comes to facing stronger wrestlers or more technically adept strikers, but Dober is as reliable a gamer as there is on the UFC roster, particularly thanks to his seeming indestructibility. That should make this 15 minutes of non-stop action, even if this looks like a clear Green win on paper. He should be able to score some counters on the feet more than he gets caught, and he also has the potential change-up of pivoting to his wrestling when needed. The pick is Green via decision.

Jump To »
Cannonier vs. Strickland
Tsarukyan vs. Ismagulov
Albazi vs. Costa
Erosa vs. Caceres
Dober vs. Green
Oleksiejczuk vs. Brundage
The Prelims

Middleweights

Michal Oleksiejczuk (17-5, 5-3 UFC) vs. Cody Brundage (8-2, 2-1 UFC)

ODDS: Oleksiejczuk (-275), Brundage (+230)

Early returns look good on Oleksiejczuk’s long-overdue cut to middleweight. Oleksiejczuk has been a strange fighter to track going back to his days at the regional level, where he did not exactly appear poised for success once he hit the UFC. His approach relied on absorbing damage from his opponents in the hopes that he could outlast them late. However, the same idea somehow worked in his UFC debut against Khalil Rountree, and with subsequent first-round knockouts of Gian Villante and Gadzhimurad Antigulov, Oleksiejczuk suddenly looked like a potential contender to watch. Yet, falling in love with the knockout may have been the worst thing to happen to “Hussar” in the short-term, as he was the one who wore himself out and got finished against Ovince St. Preux, then looked overaggressive in a quick loss to Jimmy Crute. Oleksiejczuk managed to right the ship with two balanced wins before getting stifled by Dustin Jacoby, after which he decided to go from a clearly undersized light heavyweight down to middleweight. Oleksiejczuk made his 185-pound debut in August by tearing through Sam Alvey, a performance which looked good but also came against one of the easier tests in the division. As such, Oleksiejczuk could look to prove a bit more in his new weight class here. Brundage looks to continue a surprisingly successful 2022 campaign after a disappointing UFC debut. A raw wrestler still building out his striking game, Brundage looked like the type of fighter who came to the UFC much too early and would suffer for it—an idea further solidified after a one-sided loss to Nick Maximov in his first trip to the Octagon. However, Brundage has persisted and pulled off two impressive finishes, grabbing a desperation guillotine as he was getting beaten by Dalcha Lungiambula before knocking out Tresean Gore in short order in July. Brundage is still obviously putting things together, but his prior success and the fact that he seems difficult to finish at middleweight should now give him enough slack to learn on the job in the UFC. This matchup essentially comes down to Oleksiejczuk’s ability to keep the fight standing if he cannot knock Brundage out. His takedown defense was not tested much at 205 pounds and looked poor when it was, but that part of the Pole’s game could be helped with more size parity down at middleweight. Oleksiejczuk could just show out in this one, but in a bit of a flier, the bet is that Brundage can make this ugly enough to find some wrestling success and take over the fight. The pick is Brundage via second-round submission.

Jump To »
Cannonier vs. Strickland
Tsarukyan vs. Ismagulov
Albazi vs. Costa
Erosa vs. Caceres
Dober vs. Green
Oleksiejczuk vs. Brundage
The Prelims