Preview: UFC 282 Prelims

The Ultimate Fighting Championship’s last pay-per-view of 2022 offers a strong slate of eight prelims on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. A major theme of UFC 282 sees former top prospects looking to get on track, which holds true in the featured prelim between Jairzinho Rozenstruik and Chris Daukaus—two past heavyweight headliners trying to get back in the win column. Onetime middleweight wunderkind Edmen Shahbazyan finds himself in the same boat and aims to break a three-fight skid against Dalcha Lungiambula, as does Alexander Hernandez, who drops down to the featherweight in hopes of recapturing his previous success. Beyond that, some recent Dana White’s Contender Series standouts are on display in their respective Octagon debuts, led by flyweight Vinicius Salvador and bantamweight young guns Raul Rosas Jr. and Cameron Saaiman. Add in a compelling middleweight tilt pitting Chris Curtis against Joaquin Buckley, and this functions as an appealing appetizer for the main card.

Now to the preview for the UFC 282 “Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev” prelims:

Heavyweights

#9 HW | Jairzinho Rozenstruik (12-4, 6-4 UFC) vs. #11 HW | Chris Daukaus (12-5, 4-2 UFC)

ODDS: Rozenstruik (-170), Daukaus (+145)

Can Daukaus right the ship? Daukaus’ signing in 2020 was a late-notice afterthought, though the Philadelphia native had certainly earned the shot with a solid regional resume. However, Daukaus’ success was not particularly guaranteed. He is not the largest heavyweight, which seemed to be an issue in a 2019 loss to Azunna Anyanwu that suggested he could be cowed by a more physically imposing opponent. For Daukaus’ first year-plus inside the UFC, that did not matter much. Daukaus leveraged his speed advantage and his fast hands into a string of four straight knockouts, earning him a main event spot against Derrick Lewis in the UFC’s last fight of 2021. Whether it was the gameplan or just the return of Daukaus’ old issues, he wound up staying patient enough to give Lewis time to knock him out; and an attempted bounce-back against Curtis Blaydes did not go particularly well. Daukaus did at least recapture some aggression but mostly got outboxed on his way to suffering a second-round knockout. Daukaus looks to stop his skid against Rozenstruik, who provides both some danger and some opportunity. Rozenstruik had a similar trajectory from late-notice signing to sudden contender on the back of a breakout 2019 campaign, which saw “Bigi Boy” knock out Andrei Arlovski and Alistair Overeem within five weeks’ time to cap off an undefeated calendar year. Rozenstruik has gotten his wins in the time since, but he has also fallen clearly short against the top of the heavyweight division. He is a counterstriker who is patient to a fault, leaving opponents able to outmaneuver him, outwrestle him or, in the case of Francis Ngannou, simply overwhelm him with unchecked aggression. For Daukaus, the best path seems to be to just take advantage of his speed and attempt to immediately knock out Rozenstruik. There is some more hope that may happen after the Blaydes fight, but his track record overall still suggests he will fall into Rozenstruik’s type of bout. The pick is Rozenstruik via first-round knockout.

Continue Reading » Rosas Jr. vs. Perrin

Bantamweights

Raul Rosas Jr. (6-0, 0-0 UFC) vs. Jay Perrin (10-6, 0-2 UFC)

ODDS: Rosas (-230), Perrin (+195)

As the youngest signee in UFC history, it will be interesting to see how Rosas fares early on. His September showing on Dana White’s Contender Series was a point of discussion, even though the idea of teenagers in mixed martial arts is nothing new; the UFC roster is dotted with fighters who got their professional start before the age of 20. Rosas just happens to be the youngest competitor the UFC has featured thus far. He was still 17 years old during his DWCS appearances and makes his UFC debut at the age of 18. As a fighter, Rosas’ game is still one-dimensional, but it is a good dimension. “El Nino Problema” is a talented grappler who finished his first five professional fights on the mat. Beyond that, what little striking Rosas has done suggests he is wild but not particularly effective, though to his credit he has typically wasted little time trying to immediately get things to the mat and play to his strengths. There figures to come a point where Rosas cannot easily outwrestle or outgrapple his opponent and could be in major trouble, and Perrin could easily be the guy who puts him there. Winless in his two UFC bouts since signing in February, Perrin is a solid fighter, coming from a boxing family but finding most of his success when he can also get his opponents to the ground. Perrin does not have much in terms of weaknesses, but he does read as a bit of a Quadruple-A fighter without a standout skill at the UFC level. “The Joker” relies a lot on aggression and attrition, and he has been athletically overmatched and unable to find a way towards a winning fight against Mario Bautista and Qileng Aori. Rosas does look talented enough to outwrestle Perrin and win an ugly fight against a tough opponent, but that is far from a sure bet. If Perrin can stuff one or two takedowns, particularly in the late going, there is a chance he can immediately derail the Rosas hype train. Still, the pick is Rosas via decision.

Continue Reading » Shahbazyan vs. Lungiambula

Middleweights

Edmen Shahbazyan (11-3, 4-3 UFC) vs. Dalcha Lungiambula (11-5, 2-4 UFC)

ODDS: Shahbazyan (-280), Lungiambula (+235)

Shahbazyan still has plenty of potential and time to improve, but he could badly use a win. “The Golden Boy” likely got his shot on Dana White’s Contender Series thanks to his connections—he was managed by Ronda Rousey and essentially had not fought any actual professional competition to that point—but Shahbazyan took advantage of the opportunity and became one of the UFC’s hottest prospects. A decision win over Darren Stewart aside, Shahbazyan went on a run of sharp first-round knockouts, and after a quick finish of Brad Tavares to cap 2019, the call was made to test him out as a potential contender. Shahbazyan got his first main event against Derek Brunson and managed to put together another hot start, but Brunson survived, wore out Shahbazyan and made the Armenian-American fighter’s life an absolute hell. By the time the third round came, the eventual finish and Brunson victory seemed academic. Each of Shahbazyan’s fights in 2021 played out much the same way. He gassed badly after a hot start but survived to the final horn against Jack Hermansson, and a subsequent bout against Nassourdine Imavov resulted in another late loss. Still just 25 years old, Shahbazyan has taken the last year or so to retool and finally gets a long-overdue step back in competition against Lungiambula, who has had much the same issues. Born in the Democratic Republic of the Congo, Lungiambula was a standout on the South African scene thanks to his athleticism and one-shot knockout power. However, it quickly became apparent that Lungiambula could not rely on his finishing ability at the UFC level, and “Champion” has struggled to adjust. Lungiambula at least has some judo skills to fall back on, but his explosive approach has led to some clear cardio issues. To his credit, Lungiambula has obviously done a better job of pacing himself in recent fights, but it is unclear to what end. It feels like he is now at a point of being both a bit too cautious while still defensively open for his opponents to attack. This could be a fight where Shahbazyan once again burns himself out and gets outwrestled late, but he should be able to take this given Lungiambula’s own struggles with keeping up a pace. Even if Lungiambula takes over the fight, he should leave plenty of opportunities for Shahbazyan to mount some offense or turn things around in a wrestling exchange. Shahbazyan could also just spark Lungiambula to start things off, but the bet is that the fight turns absolutely grimy and the Glendale Fighting Club rep gets an opportunity to work through his issues. The pick is Shahbazyan via decision.

Continue Reading » Buckley vs. Curtis

Middleweights

Joaquin Buckley (15-5, 5-3 UFC) vs. #15 MW | Chris Curtis (29-9, 3-1 UFC)

ODDS: Buckley (-155), Curtis (+135)

Buckley’s UFC tenure sure has been a ride. “New Mansa” figured to be a prospect to watch upon debuting with the promotion in 2020. While his game was relatively straightforward, he combined knockout power with aggression and a surprising amount of cardio, but there was a worry he would get lost in the shuffle after losing to Kevin Holland on short notice. Instead, Buckley became one of the most talked-about fighters in the sport after his second UFC bout, which saw him uncork a spinning back kick on Impa Kasanganay that remains one of the most impressive highlights in mixed martial arts history. To their credit, both Buckley and the UFC struck while the iron was hot and kept him both active and prominently featured, but a few months later, he was surprisingly knocked out by Alessio Di Chirico and has struggled to recapture that lost buzz. Despite that, Buckley has been quite successful in rebounding from the Di Chirico loss. While he has not evolved much in the ensuing few years, he was riding a three-fight winning streak until his September loss against Nassourdine Imavov, which at least saw Buckley stage a third-round comeback. He does not get much of a step back here, however, as Curtis is one of the tougher outs in the middleweight division. Curtis’ UFC shot was far from a guarantee. “The Action Man” was already a well-traveled vet before showing out on Dana White’s Contender Series in 2018, when he was denied a contract for reasons that still are not particularly clear. Curtis kept up an active schedule afterwards, even through multiple reconsidered retirements, finally getting the long-overdue UFC call in late 2021 and quickly making up for lost time. Within a month of his debut, Curtis had already strung together knockouts of Phil Hawes and Brendan Allen to affirm himself as one of the Top 20 or so middleweights on the roster. After a win over Rodolfo Vieira in June, Curtis’ hot streak finally came to an end against Jack Hermansson in a late-notice spot less than a month later. Even so, Curtis is still a dangerous and wily veteran who picks up everything his opponent leaves on the table. Curtis should find his way back to the win column in this one. Buckley finally showed some signs of progression against Imavov, but he remains a defensively open fighter who usually fights behind the same few ideas. Without the clear size disadvantage that plagued him against Hermansson, Curtis should be able to time Buckley with some big counters and separate himself on the scorecards, if not just finish him outright. The pick is Curtis via decision.

Continue Reading » Quarantillo vs. Hernandez

Featherweights

Billy Quarantillo (16-4, 4-2 UFC) vs. Alexander Hernandez (13-5, 5-4 UFC)

ODDS: Quarantillo (-165), Hernandez (+140)

Perhaps Hernandez can unlock something with this cut down to 145 pounds. Hernandez immediately announced himself as a prospect to watch in his 2018 UFC debut. He was a late-notice replacement and a bit of an afterthought heading into his bout with Beneil Dariush, but he ran over the Kings MMA standout in just 42 seconds. With another one-sided win over Olivier Aubin-Mercier, Hernandez looked poised to break out as a contender heading into 2019. However, he instead ran into Donald Cerrone, who put on one of his last great performances and blew open all of the holes in Hernandez’s aggressive approach. It was a loss that looks to have derailed Hernandez’s career. He was overly cautious to the point of near-inactivity in an interminable win over Francisco Trinaldo in his next fight, and he has since obviously struggled to recapture the confidence that marked most of his best outings. Quick knockouts over Chris Gruetzemacher and Mike Breeden in recent years have shown that Hernandez can still obliterate a subpar athlete in short order, but after about a round, he starts to get frustrated and disheartened to the point of leaving himself open for a finish. If Hernandez can retain his power and strength moving down to featherweight, that could help him carry his confidence further into his fights. With that said, UFC matchmakers have not done him any favors by pitting him against Quarantillo. It took Quarantillo years to make it to the UFC, going through both “The Ultimate Fighter” and Dana White’s Contender Series to do so, but he has been one of the most reliably exciting fighters in the promotion since his 2019 debut. Quarantillo is not a standout athlete, but he has learned to leverage his durability into a highly effective style, pressuring his opponents with volume offense until he can find a point where they eventually break. That seems to line up perfectly against someone who can struggle in the way Hernandez has, but there are some points of hope for the underdog. Hernandez may be stout enough to stifle Quarantillo’s wrestling, and the former King of the Cage champion has historically been much less effective when he is unable to score takedowns. There is also the chance that Hernandez’s strength advantage buys him enough confidence to bank two rounds until Quarantillo takes over the fight, but the dynamic here is too much ignore. The bet is that Quarantillo can make this a miserable time sooner rather than later and eventually find a position for a finish. The pick is Quarantillo via third-round stoppage.

Continue Reading » Brown vs. Silva

Featherweights

T.J. Brown (16-9, 2-3 UFC) vs. Erik Silva (9-1, 0-0 UFC)

ODDS: Brown (-110), Silva (-110)

Silva’s UFC career could go any number of ways. Born in Venezuela and based out of Costa Rica, Silva has shown a simple but effective approach thus far. A thickly built athlete, Silva uses a power striking game as a means to get to his wrestling and grappling, where he has shown a knack for grabbing a rear-naked choke. However, it is difficult to tell just how far that will take “The King” at this level. Most of his success took place on a Mexican regional scene that is forgiving for grapplers, and his contract-earning win on Dana White’s Contender Series came against a decorated kickboxer without much of a game on the mat. Silva could either find some consistent success in the UFC or quickly wash out, and neither outcome would be surprising. At 35 years old, there is not much point in his waiting around, so it is good to see him get a solid litmus test off the bat in Brown. A 2019 DWCS alum, Brown looked set for a UFC career that would be high on entertainment but provide little success, which held true with “Downtown” losing his first two UFC bouts. However, the Arkansas native rebounded with wins over Kai Kamaka III and Charles Rosa, proving himself to be a well-rounded fighter with plenty of toughness, if not any particular standout skill. Brown looks to rebound from a June loss to Nuerdanbieke Shayilan, and Silva’s lack of a strong resume makes this a coinflip. If Silva cannot get things done quickly, Brown is certainly the type of opponent to keep up the pace and drown the UFC newcomer in deep waters. The bet is that Silva has enough athleticism to quickly run through Brown’s defenses and end this early. The pick is Silva via first-round submission.

Continue Reading » Salvador vs. Da Silva

Flyweights

Vinicius Salvador (14-4, 0-0 UFC) vs. Daniel da Silva (11-4, 0-3 UFC)

ODDS: Salvador (-210), da Silva (+180)

Da Silva has consistently brought the excitement during his UFC career, often to his own detriment. “Miojo” usually gets off to a hot start and finds plenty of effective offense, which comes with a few downsides. He is only able to keep up that pace for a few minutes and leaves himself defensively wide open for a finish in the process. Thus far, that has led to three losses—all in exciting sprints—in da Silva’s three UFC fights, but given the entertainment he provides, it is unsurprising he gets a fourth shot at a win against a promotional newcomer in Salvador. Da Silva’s Brazilian countryman won one of this year’s better Dana White’s Contender Series fights against Shannon Ross, scoring a second-round knockout in a bout good enough that both men earned UFC contracts. Much like da Silva, Salvador has a focus on offense at the clear expense of his defense, but in the case of “Fenomeno,” it manifests more in a patient overconfidence that leaves the Brazilian able to get caught off-guard. This should be madness for however long it lasts. It would not be a shock if Salvador got overwhelmed and finished early, but he feels like the more reliable fighter. The pick is Salvador via first-round knockout.

Finish Reading » Saaiman vs. Koslow

Bantamweights

Cameron Saaiman (6-0, 0-0 UFC) vs. Steven Koslow (6-0, 0-0 UFC)

ODDS: Saaiman (-320), Koslow (+265)

Raul Rosas Jr. is not the only young and talented bantamweight making his UFC debut at this event, as Saaiman looks to impress in his first trip to the Octagon. Just 21 years old, the South African impressed against the much more hyped Josh Wang Kim on Dana White’s Contender Series, taking the initiative and gaining momentum until he managed to score a third-round knockout. Saaiman is still quite raw, with a style built around pressing the action and eventually outlasting his opponents in a war of attrition, and it will be interesting to see how that pairs up against a late-notice replacement and fellow UFC newcomer. Koslow is also quite raw, with a record consisting entirely of first-round submissions against a low level of competition, and what little fight footage is available does back up that he works quickly for a finish on the mat. Saiiman’s usual approach could just walk him right into a takedown and an immediate loss, but it is also unclear what Koslow has to offer past his opening salvo, making this a bit of a toss-up. Koslow has many more question marks, so his counterpart gets the nod. The pick is Saaiman via third-round stoppage.