Preview: UFC 282 ‘Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev’

The Ultimate Fighting Championship’s final pay-per-view of the year took some late hits, but it still should provide a quality viewing experience. With Jiri Prochazka vacating the light heavyweight title due to injury, the new UFC 282 main event sees former champion Jan Blachowicz try to regain gold against Magomed Ankalaev on Saturday at T-Mobile Arena in Las Vegas. It is a compelling bout that might be devoid of action, but the rest of the card figures to pick up much of the slack. Paddy Pimblett should have a wild encounter with Jared Gordon in the co-headliner; Alex Morono steps in on late notice for a surefire banger with Santiago Ponzinibbio; and a featherweight duel pitting Bryce Mitchell against Ilia Topuria sticks out as the show’s can’t-miss battle.

Now to the UFC 282 “Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev” preview:

UFC Light Heavyweight Championship

#3 LHW | Jan Blachowicz (29-9, 12-6 UFC) vs. #4 LHW | Magomed Ankalaev (17-1, 9-1 UFC)

ODDS: Ankalaev (-280), Blachowicz (+235)

It has felt inevitable that Ankalaev would eventually make his way to the top of the UFC’s light heavyweight division, but it would have been nice if his rise was a lot more exciting. Ankalaev was one of the top prospects in the sport regardless of division when the UFC picked him up in 2018. The Russian ran through a strong level of competition during his time as a pro, showing a particularly brutal level of ground-and-pound as part of a complete game. That mostly held true during his UFC debut against Paul Craig, which turned into an absolute mauling by the third round—until the Scotsman clamped on a desperation triangle choke in the closing moments of the fight, somehow managing to force a tap from Ankalaev with just one second remaining. From there, Ankalaev has seemed set on fighting within himself. That has still resulted in some impressive finishes, but it has mostly been up to his opponents to bring any excitement to the affair. With Ankalaev exercising so much control in his fights, his 2020 bouts against Ion Cutelaba figured to test if the Russian could hold his own in absolute chaos. Ankalaev did indeed keep pace and quickly knock out Cutelaba in each of their fights. That made it all the more frustrating when Ankalaev returned to his patient ways and became a decision machine in his next few fights. Thiago Santos had some brief moments of success that nearly made Ankalaev pay for letting him hang around, but the Russian otherwise cruised to controlled victories in his ascent to top contender status. Ankalaev’s last bout, a July tilt against Anthony Smith, at least finally saw him score another stoppage. However, that was partly due to Smith suffering an early injury and attempting to wrestle in what quickly became a one-sided affair. Ankalaev figured to need one more win to get a title fight, but with Prochazka’s injury throwing the very top of the division into chaos, his coronation could take place against a former champion in Blachowicz.

Blachowicz is well-established as a top light heavyweight at this point, an impressive bit of business given how close the Pole got to the UFC’s cut line. Blachowicz was a decorated talent prior to his UFC pickup in 2014, and a quick knockout of Ilir Latifi in his debut marked him as a potential title contender in short order. However, Blachowicz would instead scrape together just one win over the next three years, in part due to some sudden and concerning cardio issues. Blachowicz could have all the success in the world, yet still find himself flagging badly and on the losing end of things once his fights went to the scorecards. An October 2017 victory over Devin Clark probably saved Blachowicz from being released, and from there, everything suddenly clicked into place, in part thanks to a much-improved striking game that allowed Blachowicz to control his fights more effectively. A 2019 loss to Santos was a bit of a hiccup, but Blachowicz otherwise found enough success to get himself into the UFC’s first post-Jon Jones light heavyweight title fight against Dominick Reyes. The assumption was that it would be a bit of a walkover for Reyes, who nearly beat Jones before he vacated the belt. Instead, it was a shockingly one-sided victory for Blachowicz, who scored a second-round knockout to become one of the UFC’s unlikeliest champions. The UFC then immediately seemed set on turning Blachowicz into a footnote, matching him with then-middleweight champion Israel Adesanya. Blachowicz instead put together another win that further legitimized his title reign, so naturally, as soon as he seemed to be settling into that champion role, he surprisingly got upset by Glover Teixeira to cap off 2021. Blachowicz’s lone fight of 2022 thus far was a weird one against Aleksandar Rakic—a slow-paced clash in which both men had their moments, until Rakic suffered a fight-ending leg injury. This could set up as a similar type of fight, ending aside. By default, Blachowicz and Ankalaev would prefer to sit back and counter, so there could be long stretches of this pairing that devolve into a bit of a staring contest. At the very least, Blachowicz has shown a willingness to mount some offense and blitz in the face of inactivity, which should result in some entertaining exchanges, albeit ones in which Ankalaev should likely excel. Add in Ankalaev’s assumed wrestling advantage—even though his pivoting away from that part of his game in recent years has been a tremendous disappointment—and the Russian should be able to set himself apart as the winner, even if it once again seems up to him to actually motivate himself enough to put his stamp on a victory. Blachowicz should have his moments, or could even eke out a win if his counterpart is particularly inactive, but the pick is Ankalaev by decision.

Jump To »
Pimblett vs. Gordon
Ponzinibbio vs. Morono
Du Plessis vs. Till
Topuria vs. Mitchell
The Prelims

Lightweight

Paddy Pimblett (19-3, 3-0 UFC) vs. Jared Gordon (19-5, 7-4 UFC)

ODDS: Pimblett (-250), Gordon (+210)

It remains unclear how much of Pimblett’s popularity is due to his in-cage success, but everyone may find out here as the Scouser fan favorite gets his toughest test to date. “The Baddy” had been talked about as a potential UFC signee for years, particularly around the time of the promotion’s 2018 card in Liverpool, England, but it was best for everyone involved that Pimblett took his time making it to the Octagon. He has taken those extra years to fill out as a much stronger athlete and make himself a more effective fighter. That includes his striking, which has improved more thanks to Pimblett’s aggression than any sort of technical form. He has become somewhat notorious for leaving his chin open as he attempts to rush his opponents, but that has served as an effective way to eventually get his fights to the ground, where Pimblett is at his best. Luigi Vendramini, Rodrigo Vargas and Jordan Leavitt each had their moments in Pimblett’s three UFC fights to date, but he has come away with the finish each time. This time around, he gets his first opponent clearly established at the UFC level.

Gordon has been through the prospect ringer, as the New Yorker had a strong resume heading into his 2017 UFC debut but struggled to find the immediate success that seemed all but assured. Gordon’s approach at the time was built around pressure and aggression that leveraged his durability, but “Flash” ran into multiple issues. He struggled to make weight as a featherweight, and lightweight opponents proved surprisingly able to crack Gordon’s chin and find a knockout. Thankfully, Gordon’s last few fights have seen him successfully blend successful offense with enough patience to stay aware defensively, even if he can still hit a wall against better athletes, as was the case in his April loss to Grant Dawson. Gordon is a solid wrestler who could control Pimblett on the mat at times. However, without Gordon having shown much in the way of finishing ability, the bet is that Pimblett can cause enough chaos over 15 minutes to find a big moment and get the ball rolling towards a stoppage. The pick is Pimblett via second-round submission.

Jump To »
Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
Pimblett vs. Gordon
Ponzinibbio vs. Morono
Du Plessis vs. Till
Topuria vs. Mitchell
The Prelims

Catchweight

Santiago Ponzinibbio (28-6, 10-5 UFC) vs. Alex Morono (22-7, 11-4 UFC)

ODDS: Ponzinibbio (-175), Morono (+150)

He has not found much in the way of recent success, but it has still been good to see Ponzinibbio avoid becoming a tragic case. There is still a bit of “what if” surrounding the career of the “Argentine Dagger,” however. A dominant main event win over Neil Magny in the UFC’s Buenos Aires debut figured to be the launching pad for bigger things that never came. The Magny win, which occurred at the tail end of 2018, capped a seven-fight winning streak that marked Ponzinibbio as a reliable action fighter and potential title contender; it also marked the Argentinian’s last fight for over two years, as a cascade of injuries and a career-threatening staph infection caused him to miss all of 2019 and 2020. Ponzinibbio understandably looked flat upon his 2021 return and was still feeling things out before he quickly got knocked out by Jingliang Li, effectively nullifying the last of his previous momentum. The worry was that Ponzinibbio was also completely shot as a fighter, but he has thankfully recaptured a shade of his previous form in his last few fights. He is still obviously diminished, but he has gutted out 15 minutes of tough fighting against Miguel Baeza, Geoff Neal and Michel Pereira. He beat Baeza and took the other two to split decisions. If nothing else, Ponzinibbio can still hold his own in a war—something that a late replacement opponent in Morono figures to test out.

This serves as Morono’s highest-profile fight in some time, but “The Great White” has carved out a niche for himself as an exciting fighter and reliable late-notice replacement. Morono is not much of an athlete and can often appear awkward, but he has tapped over a decade of experience to become a smart and crafty veteran, channeling his aggression to take advantage of his opponent’s defensive openings. Morono’s two most recent losses—defeats against Kalinn Williams and Anthony Pettis in 2020—show that he can still run into a physical wall, but he is currently riding a four-fight winning streak that has made the most of his tools. A 2021 win over Donald Cerrone was ostensibly Morono’s breakout performance, but it was also a pleasure to see him pick apart the raw but much more athletic Matthew Semelsberger in a fun fight in August. This should be non-stop action and Morono could simply wind up outmaneuvering Ponzinibbio’s pressure and racking up volume, but the Argentinian gets the nod as the harder shot-for-shot hitter. Plus, with any Morono fight, there is always the possibility that he immediately gets caught cold. The pick is Ponzinibbio by decision.

Jump To »
Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
Pimblett vs. Gordon
Ponzinibbio vs. Morono
Du Plessis vs. Till
Topuria vs. Mitchell
The Prelims

Middleweight

#14 MW | Dricus Du Plessis (17-2, 3-0 UFC) vs. #10 MW | Darren Till (18-4-1, 7-3-1 UFC)

ODDS: Du Plessis (-180), Till (+155)

Till is suddenly in a crucial spot, as a win would do much towards proving he can make his game work at 185 pounds. A raw welterweight prospect upon his UFC debut in 2015, Till looked solid before missing all of 2016 due to injury; and it was after that layoff that he took the division by storm. In retrospect, it seems like Till got the exact right matchmaking for his low-volume, high-power style to work its way up the ranks. He managed to quickly dispatch a late-prime Donald Cerrone before eking out a decision win against a passive Stephen Thompson in Till’s native Liverpool, England. That was enough for Till to earn a title shot at Tyron Woodley, at which point the wheels came off. Till provided enough of a blank slate for Woodley to absolutely show out on his way to a second-round finish. The UFC still centered its next card from London on Till in a main event that saw Jorge Masvidal start his career renaissance with a win via second-round knockout—a result that subsequently saw the Englishman announce a move up to middleweight. It was a choice that looked to pay dividends after a win over Kelvin Gastelum in a patient performance, but it has been hard to know what to make of Till at 185 pounds in the two fights since. Till had some early moments against Robert Whittaker in a decision loss that still gave some cause for hope, but his 2021 bout against Derek Brunson was a bit worrying. Brunson was the first opponent for Till at middleweight who was not a former welterweight, leaving “The Gorilla” without a lot of the size advantage and subsequent intimidation that makes his game work. Brunson simply found a great deal of success with his wrestling and eventually stopped Till in the third round. Till clearly is not among the middleweight elite at the moment, but it is unclear exactly where his floor lies in his current weight class. This fight against du Plessis should help sort that out.

Du Plessis has been too successful to be ignored, even if there is a sense that what he brings to the table should not really work. South Africa’s “Stillknocks” is essentially a coiled spring of elite athleticism. There does not seem to be much of a set approach heading into his fights, but manages to quickly react to his opponent’s offense and eventually land something that works. Du Plessis’ first two UFC fights—each knockout wins—showed the creative danger that he can uncork, but his last victory over Brad Tavares was an important next step. Beyond serving as the biggest victory of du Plessis’ UFC career, it also showed he can carry his power for three rounds and take a decision. This is another fight where Till will not have much of a size advantage, but it is difficult to tell if that matters against someone as perennially tense as du Plessis. However, the South African is more likely than most to actually weaponize his anxiety into some effective offense. This could be quite an ugly fight built around a few explosive clashes. The bet is that du Plessis finds the harder shots, even if that is a bit of a coinflip. The pick is du Plessis via third-round knockout.

Jump To »
Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
Pimblett vs. Gordon
Ponzinibbio vs. Morono
Du Plessis vs. Till
Topuria vs. Mitchell
The Prelims

Featherweights

#14 FW | Ilia Topuria (12-0, 4-0 UFC) vs. #9 FW | Bryce Mitchell (15-0, 6-0 UFC)

ODDS: Topuria (-135), Mitchell (+115)

Top featherweight prospects collide in what sticks out as the gem of this card. Mitchell gets a lot of notice for his personality and what he says, enough so that it is almost a bit forgotten exactly how good he has looked inside the cage. “Thug Nasty” was a cast member on “The Ultimate Fighter” back in 2018 and looked UFC-ready, but he also figured to take his lumps as a one-dimensional grappling specialist. At first, Mitchell turned out to just be plain better at his strengths than most expected, clamping only the second twister submission finish in UFC history against Matt Sayles and managing to outwrestle Andre Fili. His March win over Edson Barboza served as a true breakout as both a well-rounded fighter and potential contender. Mitchell held his own with one of the more feared strikers in the UFC before taking over with his wrestling, turning what figured to be his toughest test to date into an absolute blowout win. Nine months later, Mitchell takes on Topuria, who has looked similarly impressive in his charge up the division.

Topuria’s entry to the UFC was much quieter, stepping in as a late replacement in 2020, though “El Matador” was clearly a prospect to watch at the time. His approach looked simple but effective, built around straightforward but powerful striking leading into an impressive wrestling and grappling game. That came through in his debut victory over Youssef Zalal, but it was wins over Damon Jackson and Ryan Hall that showed Topuria could mark himself as a top contender sooner rather than later. The win over Jackson—which has aged quite well in retrospect—saw Topuria string together some diverse striking and brutal body work for a quick knockout. The first-round finish of Hall showed that Topuria can check his aggression and pick his spots against a tricky and dangerous opponent. Unfortunately, it has mostly been a lost year and a half for Topuria since the Hall fight. Weight cut issues scrapped a fight with Charles Jourdain, and a subsequent move up to lightweight thankfully appears to be a one-off. Topuria eventually scored a knockout win but found himself in trouble against a much larger striker in Jai Herbert. That does raise some worries here, as Mitchell is both the larger fighter and impressively accurate on the feet. Given the pressure that Topuria prefers to apply, it is not all that outlandish to imagine him running right into a surprising knockout blow. Assuming Topuria does not get caught, he is the harder shot-for-shot hitter and much more insistent in terms of forcing the issue. More importantly, he looks capable enough to turn any wrestling and grappling exchanges into stalemates, thus neutralizing Mitchell’s best weapons. It will not be easy, but the pick is Topuria via decision.

Jump To »
Blachowicz vs. Ankalaev
Pimblett vs. Gordon
Ponzinibbio vs. Morono
Du Plessis vs. Till
Topuria vs. Mitchell
The Prelims