President Sall Is Risking Senegal Stability as Gas Boom Nears, Rival Says

Katarina Hoije and Momar Niang
·4 min read
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(Bloomberg) -- As Senegal readies for an oil and gas boom, President Macky Sall is putting the country’s stability at risk by refusing to rule out running for a third term, according to his main political challenger.

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Political tensions have risen since the ruling Benno Bokk Yakaar alliance had its parliamentary majority reduced to one seat in a legislative vote in July. Ousmane Sonko, leader of the opposition African Patriots of Senegal for Work, Ethics and Fraternity, or Pastef-Patriotes in French, has been charged with rape in what he says is a case designed to prevent him from running in elections next year. He’s also being sued for defamation in a lawsuit that could see him barred.

While Senegal has never suffered a military coup since independence from France in 1960, unlike many in the region, there’s been political unrest in the past. Sall’s rise to power in 2012 came on the back of nationwide protests against then-president Abdoulaye Wade’s attempt to run for a third term, which is barred by the constitution.

It’s up to the president to “deescalate the situation,” Sonko, 48, said in a March 10 interview in the Senegalese capital, Dakar, referencing deadly riots in March 2021 that followed his arrest for allegedly sexually assaulting and threatening a beauty salon employee. “Let’s hope the actors can come to their senses before we cross the red line.”

Sall, 61, won a run-off vote after the Constitutional Court of Senegal ruled that Wade was allowed to stand because his first term didn’t count under the new constitution.

“If you’re looking at the risk of violent protests in Senegal, in the near term, the number one trigger is if Sonko’s convicted. Number two is Macky Sall potentially running,” said Tochi Eni-Kalu, an Africa analyst at Washington-based Eurasia Group. “If both of those things happen, then you’re going to see large-scale potentially violent protests.”

Still, he said, Sonko has stoked tensions in the past and is partly to blame for the current standoff.

A spokesman for Sall’s party wasn’t reachable. At the time of the 2021 riots, Sall appealed for calm and said justice should run its course.

This time, economically, the stakes are higher.

Senegal’s government has forecast 10% economic growth in 2023 as liquefied natural gas from the $4.8 billion Greater Tortue Ahmeyim field, a venture between BP Plc and Kosmos Energy Ltd., is due to start production. An investment decision on a second phase, which would double output from the initial 2.5 million tons of LNG annually, is expected in coming months.

The project has attracted interest from Europe, which is seeking to reduce its dependency on Russian gas following the invasion of Ukraine.

Rape Case

Sall has no obvious successor and given the loss in the parliamentary vote, his party’s hold on the presidency is less secure. The Alliance for the Republic has argued he should be allowed to be a candidate after a 2016 constitutional change cut the presidential terms to five years from seven.

“The constitution clearly states that no one can serve more than two consecutive terms,” Sonko said. “It’s not up to Macky Sall to decide, it’s up to the constitution.”

“Every time Senegal has come close to catching fire,” it’s been over “efforts to eliminate candidates and to validate a president’s third term,” he said.

Government spokesman Abdou Karim Fofana said it was up to the Constitutional Court to pronounce on who can run for president.

“Whether someone’s allowed to run or not isn’t up to analysts, journalists or other political leaders to decide,” he said. “In this case, we hear analysts, journalists and other politicians that want to impose something on a person that’s in fact up to the court.”

Sonko, a former tax inspector turned politician, rose to prominence after finishing third behind Sall and former Senegalese prime minister Idrissa Seck in the 2019 election. He’s widely seen as the main opponent to Sall’s ruling coalition in the February vote.

Sonko’s rape case was referred for trial in January although a date has yet to be set, while Tourism Minister Mame Mbaye Niang is pressing ahead with a defamation case after the opposition leader told a news conference that Niang had stolen 29 billion CFA francs ($47 million) from a government agency.

If Sonko’s supporters protest he says he won’t seek to stop them.

“Why would I?” he said. “The problem is not to go out or not, but why do we go out.”

(Updates with government spokesman comment in fourth paragraph below Rape Case subheadline)

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