PGA Awards predictions: ‘Top Gun: Maverick’ could upset ‘Everything Everywhere,’ Experts say
“All Quiet on the Western Front” threw a wrench into the awards season by winning Best Picture at the BAFTAs, but we’re guaranteed to have a different winner at the upcoming Producers Guild Awards, where “All Quiet” isn’t nominated. “Everything Everywhere All at Once” is the odds-on favorite to win at this event, which is crucial in the run-up to the Oscars. But the Expert journalists we’ve surveyed from major media outlets say “Top Gun: Maverick” could fly right past it.
SEESteven Spielberg to Tom Cruise: ‘You saved Hollywood’s a–’
In the past 15 years, the Producers Guild has agreed with the Oscars on Best Picture a whopping 12 times. The reason they’ve been such a reliable Oscar bellwether is that they use the same ranked-choice preferential ballot that the motion picture academy uses to decide their favorite, which means that consensus is every bit as important as passion for both groups. Since “Everything Everywhere” is the strong favorite at the Oscars, it’s understandable then that nine Experts are betting on it to win PGA too.
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But eight Experts say “Top Gun” will surprise. Why is this race so close when “Top Gun” ranks down in fourth in our Oscar odds for Best Picture? Perhaps our Experts think industry producers are more likely to respond to its narrative. After all, the PGA has been more welcoming to blockbusters than other industry groups, nominating films ranging from “Star Trek” to “Deadpool.” And “Top Gun” is the blockbuster film that reignited the box office after a long lull caused by the COVID-19 pandemic. Thus, producers may be the peer group with the best chance of honoring the movie that “saved Hollywood’s ass.”
And if the producers go for “Top Gun,” history shows us that there’s a pretty good chance the Oscars will too.
PREDICTthe 2023 Oscar winners through March 12
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