Paul Giamatti (‘Holdovers’) rises to 2nd place in Oscar odds for Best Actor, right behind Cillian Murphy (‘Oppenheimer’)

The Golden Globe and Critics Choice Awards changed a lot in the Oscar race for Best Actor, but not necessarily how we were expecting. Many Experts, Editors, and Users (myself included) thought we’d see Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”) start to build momentum, but it was actually Paul Giamatti (“The Holdovers”) who got a significant lift. Now Giamatti ranks second in our Oscar odds, right behind Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”). Scroll down to see the graph illustrating the state of the race as of this writing. Click on it to see more up-to-the-minute prediction graphs.

SEE‘The Holdovers’: Watch out for this audience favorite at the Oscars

Murphy’s performance as conflicted scientist J. Robert Oppenheimer won the Golden Globe for Best Film Drama Actor, edging out Cooper, while Giamatti claimed Best Film Comedy/Musical Actor for playing an irascible teacher supervising left-behind students over Christmas break. But going into Critics Choice, our Best Actor odds were still indicating a battle between Murphy and Cooper. Only three Expert journalists and one Gold Derby Editor were anticipating the upset by Giamatti.

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But now the Oscar race has truly changed. Murphy is still out front with support from 10 Experts, but eight now say that Giamatti will win the Oscar. So do two Editors. Our elite Users are slower to get onboard: Only one of our Top 24 Users is betting on Giamatti, and none of our All-Star Top 24 are yet. Still, it’s enough to push Cooper down to third place. The good news for Cooper, though, is that industry peer group awards have yet to be handed out. Specifically, the SAG Awards could restore his Oscar hopes.

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Cooper has been nominated nine times for Oscars without a win, so this seemed like — and it still could be — his year, especially seeing as he gives a showy, transformative performance as a real-life historical figure. Oscar voters eat that up. But Giamatti actually has an Oscar IOU going back a lot farther. Eight years before Cooper’s first Oscar nom for “Silver Linings Playbook,” Giamatti was snubbed for his leading role in the Best Picture-nominated “Sideways.” Giamatti got a makeup nom the very next year, Best Supporting Actor for “Cinderella Man,” but to date that’s his only nomination in a career spanning decades. Maybe we were wrong about which overdue actor was about to cash in.

But Giamatti still has to get past Murphy, another long-working but under-rewarded actor who has the advantage of starring in the Best Picture front-runner. That said, Best Picture and Best Actor haven’t lined up since “The Artist” 12 years ago, so there’s no guarantee Murphy will go along for the ride even if “Oppenheimer” goes all the way. So it looks like this will be an exciting, uncertain horse race for a while longer.

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