Paul Giamatti (‘The Holdovers’) predicted to win Golden Globe, but Jeffrey Wright (‘American Fiction’) poised to upset

Paul Giamatti is the front-runner to win the Golden Globe for Best Film Comedy/Musical Actor for his performance in “The Holdovers.” That’s according to the combined predictions of Gold Derby users who have placed their bets here in our predictions center. But there’s a chance he’ll be upset by Jeffrey Wright for “American Fiction.” Both men are previous Globe champs. Which one will add to his collection?

Giamatti is now a six-time Globe nominee with two previous wins under his belt: one in this category for “Barney’s Version” and one for playing the title role in the 2008 HBO limited series “John Adams.” He leads the current race with 69/20 odds. Among those betting on him as of this writing are 10 out of 13 Expert journalists, eight out of 10 Gold Derby Editors, 16 of our Top 24 Users and 16 of our All-Star Top 24.

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Wright is on just his second Globe nomination, but he won the last time he competed: exactly 20 years ago he was awarded for his supporting role in another HBO limited series, “Angels in America.” Can he go two-for-two? He ranks second with 37/10 odds with support from three Experts, two Editors, seven Top Users and six All-Stars. So while Giamatti has a significant advantage, it’s far from decisive.

The biggest challenge in forecasting this race is how evenly matched their two films are. Both “The Holdovers” and “American Fiction” were well-liked by the Golden Globe Association as both received noms for Best Film Comedy/Musical. However, neither film left a strong enough impression on voters to receive writing or directing noms. Wright is the only other nomination for “American Fiction” while “The Holdovers” has a third bid for supporting actress Da’Vine Joy Randolph, but that may not be indicative of Giamatti’s strength in this race one way or the other.

As it stands none of our Experts, Editors, Top Users or All-Stars are predicting the other four nominees in this category — Matt Damon (“Air”), Timothee Chalamet (“Wonka”), Nicolas Cage (“Dream Scenario”) or Joaquin Phoenix (“Beau is Afraid”) — so it looks like this is a two-man race. Which way do you think it’ll go?

PREDICTthe Golden Globe winners

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