Oscars: Why ‘Godzilla Minus One’ will take a bite out of Best Visual Effects

Christopher Tsang
·5 min read
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Before the Oscar nominations were announced, it was a head-scratcher to determine what movies would make up the category of Best Visual Effects. With the lineup being one of the most unusual selections in recent memory, having no Best Picture nominee, there is a case for many of these contenders to edge out a victory. And while there are many statistics and comparisons that can be used to determine which film will ultimately take home the statue, sometimes passion is all one needs to win an Oscar, and there is one film that stands out from the rest with wide support. Let’s examine why “Godzilla Minus One” may overcome the stats to win Best Visual Effects at the Oscars.

The Japanese kaiju film is directed by Takashi Yamazaki, who also serves as one of the visual effects artists alongside Kiyoko Shibuya, Masaki Takahashi and Tatsuji Nojima. “Godzilla” competes with “The Creator,” “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3,” “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning” and “Napoleon.” All four of those other movies made the BAFTA and Critics Choice Awards lineup (with the exception of “Napoleon” in the latter), but lost to “Poor Things” and “Oppenheimer,” which are not nominated here, so all their losses helps “Godzilla Minus One” in that aspect. But the precursor to pay attention to is the Visual Effects Society Awards (VES) where all films made the cut in various categories; the two main ones populated by “The Creator” and “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Outstanding Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature) and “Napoleon” (Outstanding Supporting Visual Effects in a Photoreal Feature). “The Creator” wound up succeeding in its respective category, while “Napoleon” ended up losing to “Nyad.”

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Something also to observe with the Oscars is “The Creator” is also cited in Best Sound, while “Napoleon” made the top five in Best Costume Design and Best Production Design. Past Oscar winners for Best Visual Effects only missed the sound category (Mixing and/or Editing) four times the last 20 years, while only missing production design three times in that same timespan. And even though that may be good signs for both “The Creator” and “Napoleon,” the latter movie’s double loss in the industry precursors may show lack of passion for the historical epic, especially when you consider even “First Man” (which surprised in this category five years ago) won supporting visual effects at VES.

In terms of “The Creator,” there is no doubt that the effects in that movie are undeniable, hence its triumph at VES in the main category. But it should be noted that this is the same industry organization that awarded franchises like “Transformers,” “Planet of the Apes,” “Star Wars: The Force Awakens” and “Avengers: Infinity War,” which all went on to lose the Oscar. Not to mention that “The Creator” massively underperformed at the box office, grossing $104 million against its $80 million budget, so it could follow a similar path three years ago when another science fiction movie “Midnight Sky” won at the VES, but came up short to “Tenet” at the Oscars, due to lack of audience buzz and not a lot of viewers watching it.

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When it comes to “Godzilla Minus One,” its snubs at BAFTA, CCA and the VES main categories are unfavorable (it was nominated for Outstanding Animated Character in a Photoreal Feature but lost to “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3,” perhaps due to it being in the main category). But keep in mind that these organizations have never gone for a non-American film – last year’s CCA nom for “RRR” was the first – so the Oscar nomination for the picture was the biggest hurdle and shows passion that it can eke out a victory if there is no clear frontrunner. On top of that, it is the most commercially successful film in the category, grossing $107 million worldwide on only a $10-$12 million budget, so it can be safe to say that many voters have seen it.

According to the current Gold Derby odds, “Godzilla Minus One” overwhelmingly leads the pack with 82/25 and 3,992 users forecasting a historic win. Behind it is “The Creator” with 18/5 odds and the other three movies tied with 9/2. There is no denying the passion and love for the Japanese epic and even though it is technically part of the Godzilla franchise, it is also an international film, which can easily work in its favor given the expansion of voters within the Academy. With Best Visual Effects so up in the air, “Godzilla Minus One” has a stronger chance of emerging victorious on Oscar night.

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