Oscars: Are we all underestimating ‘Napoleon’ for Best Visual Effects?
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Ridley Scott’s “Napoleon” pulled off a surprise tally at the Oscar nominations announcement, riding in with three bids, the most for a movie that was not recognized in the Best Picture category this year. It cracked Best Costume Design, Best Production Design and Best Visual Effects, signaling significant support for the Apple Original Films’ historical epic, particularly in the last category as it took out powerful contenders like “Society of the Snow,” “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” and Best Picture nominee “Poor Things.” Since the VFX race looks to be up in the air, “Napoleon” may have a stronger chance of emerging victorious than most awards pundits think.
“Napoleon’s” four visual effects artists (Charley Henley, Luc-Ewen Martin-Fenouillet, Simone Coco and Neil Corbould) are competing alongside those from “The Creator,” “Godzilla Minus One,” “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” and “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning.” This is the first nomination for Martin-Fenouillet and the second for Henley, who was previously cited for Scott’s “Prometheus” (2012). Coco and Corbould have multiple noms in this category, both also part of the VFX team for “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning,” and Corbould for “The Creator.” Corbould is the only winner in this foursome for “Gladiator” (2000) and “Gravity” (2013), and has eight total nominations.
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The category is particularly head-scratching when looking at the history of winners at the Oscars. Since the expanded Best Picture era began in 2010, eight of the last 14 winners came from Best Picture nominees and only five of those years did the lineup not have a singular film in the top category. But in those instances, the academy still went for what could be argued as the closest movie to the top category when determining the winner, such as “Blade Runner 2049” (2017), “First Man” (2018), “Interstellar” (2014) and “Tenet” (2020), the last two being movies helmed by Christopher Nolan, whose film “Oppenheimer,” which led the nominations, was ironically excluded from the shortlist this year.
Looking at this year’s selections, “Napoleon” could fit the mold of that group of films which benefited from not having a Best Picture film in the category, as it is perhaps the closest adjacent to that prestige lineup and does have the most mentions than the other nominees. Aside from that, it has done well technically in the precursors, including recognition from the Visual Effects Society Award for Best Supporting Visual Effects in a Feature Motion Picture, and four nominations at the BAFTAs, with Best Make Up & Hair in place of Best Production Design, and the BAFTA-specific Best British Film.
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As it currently stands in our combined Gold Derby odds, “Napoleon” is down in fourth place with only 126 users predicting it for the win, only above “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning,” though they share the same 9/2 odds. Above them are “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” in third at 4/1 and “The Creator” in second at 37/10. “Godzilla Minus One” overwhelmingly leads with 17/5 odds and 2,345 users on its side, but it should be noted that it is the only nominee not cited at the main precursor categories (with the exception of Outstanding Animated Character in a Photoreal Feature at VFX Society). History in recent years has shown that the academy does not tend to reward famous franchises in visual effects, which include Marvel Cinematic Universe, DC Comics, “Harry Potter” and “Star Wars” – this is even the first nomination for the “Mission: Impossible” franchise.
Even though “Napoleon” has less recognizable and more subtle visual effects than its other nominees, it matters less to the wider academy when voting, and did not stop victors like “First Man” or “1917,” so the movie could be a real dark horse, especially if it picks up wins at either or both of the precursors. This category is certainly one to pay attention to given its uncertainty, and with “Napoleon” performing beyond expectations with nominations, it would not be shocking for it to pull off an upset win in Best Visual Effects.
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