Final Oscar Predictions: Supporting Actress – 18 Black Women Have Won Oscars in History; Da’Vine Joy Randolph to Join List of Legendary Queens

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

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OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2024 Oscars Predictions:
Best Supporting Actress

Weekly Commentary (Updated March 7, 2024): Since the inception of the Academy Awards ceremony in 1929, a total of 3,395 Oscar statuettes have been awarded. Regrettably, merely 18 of these prestigious accolades have been bestowed upon Black women, constituting a mere 0.005% of all Oscar winners. To put this in perspective, Meryl Streep boasts more nominations alone than the total number of statues awarded to Black women. However, there is hope on the horizon with Da’Vine Joy Randolph’s remarkable performance in “The Holdovers,” positioning her to potentially become the 19th Black woman to receive this esteemed honor.

In the supporting actress category, Randolph stands to become the tenth Black woman to join this exclusive roster, which commenced with Hattie McDaniel’s portrayal of Mammy in “Gone with the Wind” (1939) and most recently saw Ariana DeBose’s portrayal of Anita in “West Side Story” (2021) clinch the award. Randolph arrives at the Dolby Theatre backed by wins from BAFTA, SAG, Critics Choice, and Golden Globes. It is worth noting that only one individual has ever lost the Oscar after securing victories in all four of these prestigious awards—Russell Crowe for his performance in “A Beautiful Mind” (2001).

For those pondering who might be next in line for this distinction, contenders such as Emily Blunt for her role in “Oppenheimer” or America Ferrera for her portrayal in “Barbie” could be considered. However, it seems unlikely that either will pose a significant threat to Randolph’s chances.

Will Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)
Could Win: Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”)
Should Win: Da’Vine Joy Randolph
Should have been here: Laurie Metcalf (“Somewhere in Queens”) and Audra McDonald (“Origin”)

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

And the Nominees Are:

1. Da’Vine Joy Randolph — “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)

2. Emily Blunt — “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)

3. America Ferrera — “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)

4. Jodie Foster — “Nyad” (Netflix)

5. Danielle Brooks — “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)

Other Eligiblities From 2023 (Alphabetized by Studio)**

• Camille Cottin — “A Haunting in Venice” (20th Century Studios)

• Tina Fey — “A Haunting in Venice” (20th Century Studios)

• Emma Laird — “A Haunting in Venice” (20th Century Studios)

• Kelly Reilly — “A Haunting in Venice” (20th Century Studios)

• Michelle Yeoh — “A Haunting in Venice” (20th Century Studios)

• Patti LuPone – “Beau is Afraid” (A24)

• Parker Posey – “Beau is Afraid” (A24)

• Amy Ryan – “Beau is Afraid” (A24)

• Julianne Nicholson — “Dream Scenario” (A24)

• Doechii — “Earth Mama” (A24)

• Erika Alexander — “Earth Mama” (A24)

• Lily James – “The Iron Claw” (A24)

• Maura Tierney — “The Iron Claw” (A24)

• Moon Seung-ah – “Past Lives” (A24)

• Dagmara Dominczyk – “Priscilla” (A24)

• Hong Chau – “Showing Up” (A24)

• Julianne Moore – “When You Finish Saving the World” (A24)

• Sandra Hüller – “The Zone of Interest” (A24)

• Viola Davis – “Air” (Amazon MGM Studios)

• Jurnee Smollett – “The Burial” (Amazon MGM Studios)

• Roberta Colindrez — “Cassandro” (Amazon MGM Studios)

• Perla De La Rosa — “Cassandro” (Amazon MGM Studios)

• Molly Shannon — “A Good Person” (Amazon MGM Studios)

• Celeste O’Connor — “A Good Person” (Amazon MGM Studios)

• Zoe Lister-Jones — “A Good Person” (Amazon MGM Studios)

• Tiffany Haddish — “Landscape with Invisible Hand” (Amazon MGM Studios)

• Brooklynn MacKinzie — “Landscape with Invisible Hand” (Amazon MGM Studios)

• Sarayu Blue — “A Million Miles Away” (Amazon MGM Studios)

• Veronica Falcón — “A Million Miles Away” (Amazon MGM Studios)

• Allison Oliver — “Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)

• Rosamund Pike – “Saltburn” (Amazon MGM Studios)

• Annie Murphy – “Fingernails” (Apple Original Films)

• Janae Collins – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)

• Tantoo Cardinal – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)

• Lily Gladstone – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) **

• Cara Jade Myers – “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures)

• Vanessa Kirby – “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films/Sony Pictures)

• Camille Cottin — “Golda” (Bleecker Street)

• Hong Chau – “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)

• Hope Davis – “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)

• Grace Edwards – “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)

• Maya Hawke – “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)

• Scarlett Johansson – “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)

• Sophia Lillis – “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)

• Margot Robbie – “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)

• Tilda Swinton – “Asteroid City” (Focus Features)

• Da’Vine Joy Randolph – “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)

• Patricia Clarkson – “Monica” (IFC Films)

• Juliette Binoche — “The Taste of Things” (IFC Films/Sapan Studio)

• Annie Gonzalez – “Flamin’ Hot” (Hulu/Searchlight Pictures)

• Kathy Bates – “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)

• Rachel McAdams – “Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret” (Lionsgate)

• Stephanie Hsu – “Joy Ride” (Lionsgate)

• Zoe Saldaña — “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)

• Karen Gillan — “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)

• Pom Klementieff — “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)

• Linda Cardellini — “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios)

• Teyonah Parris – “The Marvels” (Marvel Studios)

• Issa Rae – “American Fiction” (MGM)

• Tracee Ellis Ross – “American Fiction” (MGM)

• Emily Beecham — “Guy Ritchie’s The Covenant” (MGM)

• Tessa Thompson – “Creed III” (MGM)

• Ruby Cruz — — “Bottoms” (MGM/Orion)

• Havana Rose Liu — “Bottoms” (MGM/Orion)

• Kaia Gerber — “Bottoms” (MGM/Orion)

• Courtney Henggeler — “The Boys in the Boat” (MGM)

• Hadley Robinson — “The Boys in the Boat” (MGM)

• Anne Hathaway – “Eileen” (Neon) **

• Isabella Rossellini – “La Chimera” (Neon)

• Niecy Nash-Betts — “Origin” (Neon)

• Audra McDonald — “Origin” (Neon)

• Tilda Swinton – “The Killer” (Netflix)

• Myha’la Herrold – “Leave the World Behind” (Netflix)

• Maya Hawke – “Maestro” (Netflix)

• Carey Mulligan – “Maestro” (Netflix) **

• Julianne Moore – “May December” (Netflix)

• Jodie Foster – “Nyad” (Netflix)

• Audra McDonald – “Rustin” (Netflix)

• CCH Pounder – “Rustin” (Netflix)

• Sophia Lillis — “Dungeons & Dragons: Honor Among Thieves” (Paramount Pictures)

• Hayley Atwell — “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures)

• Rebecca Ferguson — “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures)

• Vanessa Kirby — “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures)

• Pom Klementieff — “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures)

• Ronkẹ Adékoluẹjo — “Chevalier” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Lucy Boynton — “Chevalier” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Minnie Driver — “Chevalier” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Rachel House — “Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Kaimana — “Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Elisabeth Moss — “Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Suzy Bemba — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Kathryn Hunter – “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Vicki Pepperdine — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Margaret Qualley – “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Hanna Schygulla — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Claire Foy – “All of Us Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures)

• America Ferrera – “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)

• Shailene Woodley – “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)

• Niousha Noor – “The Persian Version” (Sony Pictures Classics)

• Penélope Cruz – “Ferrari” (Neon)

• Emily Blunt – “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)

• Florence Pugh – “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)

• America Ferrera – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)

• Ariana Greenblatt – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)

• Kate McKinnon – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)

• Rhea Perlman – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)

• Issa Rae – “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)

• Adriana Barraza – “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)

• Belissa Escobedo – “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)

• Susan Sarandon – “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)

• Bruna Marquezine – “Blue Beetle” (Warner Bros.)

• Halle Bailey – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)

• Danielle Brooks – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)

• Taraji P. Henson – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)

• H.E.R. – “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)

• Olivia Colman — “Wonka” (Warner Bros.)

• Sally Hawkins — “Wonka” (Warner Bros.)

• Calah Lane — “Wonka” (Warner Bros.)

• Natasha Rothwell — “Wonka” (Warner Bros.)

• Melissa McCarthy – “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)

** This official list is incomplete, with all release dates not yet confirmed and subject to change.

2022 category winner: Jamie Lee Curtis, “Everything Everywhere All at Once” (A24)

Oscars Predictions Categories

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

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