Oscars Predictions: Best Supporting Actor – Daniel Kaluuya’s Oscar Moment Is Within Reach Following SAG Awards

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Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars from Film Awards Editor Clayton Davis. Following Academy Awards history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar predictions are updated regularly with the current year's contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. Eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and will be displayed next to revision date.

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE COLLECTIVE

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DRAFT>>>PRE SEASON>>>REGULAR SEASON>>>POST SEASON

2021 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST SUPPORTING ACTOR

UPDATED: Apr. 8, 2021

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: For Kaluuya, his SAG win was expected, and along with Boseman, seems to be the only sure-fire bets in the major categories at the Academy. And just like Boseman, if Kaluuya wins BAFTA, where his closest competitor Sacha Baron Cohen (“The Trial of the Chicago 7”) is not nominated, no supporting actor has lost the Oscar when walking in with BAFTA, Critics Choice, Golden Globe and SAG.

SNUBS: David Strathairn (“Nomadland”), Alan S. Kim (“Minari”), Glynn Turman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”), Bo Burnham (“Promising Young Woman”), Billy Crystal (“Standing Up, Falling Down”), Jamie Dornan (“Barb & Star Go To Vista Del Mar”), Eli Goree (“One Night in Miami”), Aldis Hodge (“One Night in Miami”), Bob Wells (“Nomadland”)

PRECURSORS LEADER:
Paul Raci, “Sound of Metal” (Amazon Studios)
Awards Circuit Winners Chart (2020-2021)
2021 Awards Season Calendar

AND THE NOMINEES ARE:

  1. Daniel Kaluuya
    "Judas and the Black Messiah" (Warner Bros.)

    THE "OSCAR SCENE"
    "It’s not a question of violence or non-violence. It’s a question of resistance to fascism or nonexistence within fascism. You can murder a liberator, but you can’t
    murder liberation; you can murder a revolutionary, but you can’t murder a revolution; you can murder a freedom-fighter, but you can’t murder freedom!" - Daniel Kaluuya (Fred Hampton to People's Church)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 1 nomination (2017's "Get Out" in best actor)
    ROLE: Fred Hampton

    DIRECTOR: Shaka King
    SYNOPSIS: The story of Fred Hampton, Chairman of the Illinois Black Panther Party, and his fateful betrayal by FBI informant William O'Neal.
    STARRING: Lakeith Stanfield, Daniel Kaluuya, Dominique Fishback, Jesse Plemons, Martin Sheen, Dominique Thorne, Algee Smith, Lil Rel Howery, Jermaine Fowler

  2. Sacha Baron Cohen
    "The Trial of the Chicago 7" (Netflix)

    THE "OSCAR SCENE"
    "Gimme me a moment, would you friend? I’ve never been on trial for my thoughts before." - Sacha Baron Cohen (Abbie Hoffman on the stand)

    OSCAR HISTORY: 1 nomination (2006's "Borat: Cultural Learnings of America for Make Benefit Glorious Nation of Kazakhstan" in adapted screenplay)
    ROLE: Abbie Hoffman

    DIRECTOR: Aaron Sorkin
    SYNOPSIS: The story of 7 people on trial stemming from various charges surrounding the uprising at the 1968 Democratic National Convention in Chicago, Illinois.
    STARRING: Yahya Abdul-Mateen II, Sacha Baron Cohen, Joseph Gordon-Levitt, Michael Keaton, Frank Langella, John Carroll Lynch, Eddie Redmayne, Mark Rylance, Alex Sharp, Jeremy Strong

  3. Leslie Odom, Jr.
    "One Night in Miami" (Amazon Studios)

    One Night in Miami
    One Night in Miami

    THE "OSCAR SCENE"
    "[singing acapella version YOU SEND ME]." - Leslie Odom Jr (Sam Cooke in Boston Ballroom as told by Malcolm X)


    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Sam Cooke

    DIRECTOR: Regina King
    SYNOPSIS: A fictional account of one incredible night in 1964, where four icons of activism, sports and music – Malcolm X, Muhammad Ali, Jim Brown and Sam Cooke – gathered, discussing their roles in the civil rights movement and cultural upheaval of the ’60s.
    STARRING: Kingsley Ben-Adir, Eli Goree, Aldis Hodge, Leslie Odom, Jr.

  4. Paul Raci
    "Sound of Metal" (Amazon Studios)

    THE "OSCAR SCENE"
    "I wonder Ruben, during these mornings when you have been sitting in my study-Sitting. I wonder if you've had any moments of stillness? Because you're right Ruben the world does keep moving and it can be a damn cruel place... But for me, that place of stillness that comes when I'm not clamoring, or running or desperately clutching...the moments where this crappy mundane world suddenly becomes radiant and magnificent, and all fear is gone... for me, THAT PLACE
    is the kingdom of God... not a church or heaven or any particular religion... THAT PLACE, inside you... that is where god lives Ruben...." - Paul Raci (Joe to Ruben when returning after surgery)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: Joe

    DIRECTOR: Darius Marder
    SYNOPSIS: A heavy-metal drummer's life is thrown into freefall when he begins to lose his hearing.
    STARRING: Riz Ahmed, Olivia Cooke, Paul Raci, Mathieu Almaric, Lauren Ridloff

  5. Lakeith Stanfield
    "Judas and the Black Messiah" (Warner Bros)

    THE "OSCAR SCENE"
    "Shit, I would’ve killed that motherfucker too. Killed him dead. I’d have beat the shit outta that nigga too. Boy. I woulda shot that nigga, stabbed his ass. Man, y’all lucky I wasn’t there. I woulda...boy... bitch motherfucker." - Lakeith Stanfield (Bill O'Neal talking to George Sams)

    OSCAR HISTORY: Never nominated
    ROLE: William O'Neal

    DIRECTOR: Shaka King
    SYNOPSIS: The story of Fred Hampton, Chairman of the Illinois Black Panther Party, and his fateful betrayal by FBI informant William O'Neal.
    STARRING: Lakeith Stanfield, Daniel Kaluuya, Dominique Fishback, Jesse Plemons, Martin Sheen, Dominique Thorne, Algee Smith, Lil Rel Howery, Jermaine Fowler

† = no release date scheduled / could be delayed / may not be eligible
†† = could be campaigned in the lead or supporting categories / original or adapted screenplay categories

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Best Supporting Actor)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are “Ben-Hur,” “Titanic” and “The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King” at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are “All About Eve,” “Titanic” and “La La Land” at 14. “La La Land” is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The biggest Oscar “losers,” meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977’s “The Turning Point” and 1985’s “The Color Purple” at 11 each. Walter Brennan has the most wins in this category with three, while Mahershala Ali, Michael Caine, Melvyn Douglas, Anthony Quinn, Jason Robards, Peter Ustinov and Christoph Waltz have two each. The most nominations in this category are shared between seven actors – Brennan, Jeff Bridges, Robert Duvall, Arthur Kennedy, Jack Nicholson, Al Pacino and Claude Rains, with four apiece. Christopher Plummer holds the distinction of being the oldest winner ever at 82 for “Beginners” and nominee for “All the Money in the World” at 88. The youngest winner is Timothy Hutton for his debut performance at 20 for “Ordinary People,” while Justin Henry is the youngest nominee ever at eight for “Kramer vs. Kramer.”

Academy Awards Predictions (All Categories)

2021 Golden Globes Predictions (Film)

2021 SAG Awards Predictions (Film)

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners are selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). 17 branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The Oscars are scheduled for Sunday, April 25, 2021.

About the Golden Globes

The Golden Globes Awards, hosted by the Hollywood Foreign Press Association, is held annually with 93 members since 1944. The group recognizes excellence in film and television across drama and comedy or musical categories. Damien Chazelle’s “La La Land” holds the record for the most awards won by a single film with seven. Milos Forman’s “One Flew Over the Cuckoo’s Nest” and Alan Parker’s “Midnight Express” are next in line with six each. Robert Altman’s “Nashville” has the record for most nominations received by a film with 11 while Colin Higgins’ “Foul Play,” Francis Ford Coppola’s “The Godfather Part III” and Mike Nichols’ “Who’s Afraid of Virginia Woolf?” share the record for receiving the most nominations and not winning a single award at seven.

  • The Golden Globes are scheduled for Feb. 28, 2021.

About the SAG Awards

The Screen Actors Guild Awards, hosted by SAG-AFTRA, is an annual award show that has become one of the most important and key indicators for the Oscars. Four films have won the most SAG awards with three: 1999’s “American Beauty,” 2002’s “Chicago,” 2011’s “The Help” and 2017’s “Three Billboards outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Three movies have been nominated for the most SAG awards with five: 1998’s “Shakespeare in Love,” “Chicago” and 2008’s “Doubt.”

  • The SAG Awards are scheduled to take place on Sunday, April 4, 2021

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