Oscars Predictions: Best Picture – ‘Belfast’ and ‘The Power of the Dog’ Could Lead the Tally

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  • Ridley Scott
    Ridley Scott
    English film director and film producer
  • Kenneth Branagh
    Kenneth Branagh
    British actor, screenwriter, film director and producer
  • Scott Stuber
    Scott Stuber
    American film producer

Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.

To see all the latest predictions, of all the categories, in one place, visit THE OSCARS COLLECTIVE
Visit each category, per the individual awards show from THE OSCARS HUB
Revisit the prediction archive of the 2021 season THE ARCHIVE
Link to television awards is atTHE EMMYS HUB

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2022 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST PICTURE

UPDATED: Jan 21, 2022

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY: The nominations for the SAG Awards gave significant boosts to Ridley Scott’s “House of Gucci,” and along with 14 mentions on the BAFTA longlists, you have to wonder if it can still make a play in the best picture race despite the reviews. Co-leading the SAG noms was Jane Campion’s “The Power of the Dog,” but it missed out on a crucial ensemble nomination.

Kenneth Branagh’s “Belfast” did nab ensemble and supporting actress. Still, both of the supporting actors, Jamie Dornan and Ciaran Hinds missed out, questioning its popularity with the actors’ branch.

Films that went up in other rankings include Sian Heder’s “CODA,” Cary Joji Fukanaga’s “No Time to Die” and Adam McKay’s “Don’t Look Up.” Dropping in the charts, Steven Spielberg’s “West Side Story” after the ensemble snub and “Drive My Car” after being omitted from the BAFTA longlist for best film, even though it was mentioned for directing and adapted screenplay.

Oscar nominations voting begins on Thursday, Jan. 27, 2022, and will end on Tuesday, Feb. 1, 2022. The official Academy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, Feb. 8, 2022, with the ceremony taking place on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022.

Precursor Awards Leader: “The Power of the Dog” (Netflix)
Awards Circuit Winners Chart (2021-2022) – coming soon
Awards Season Calendar

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

. - Credit: Courtesy of Kirsty Griffin/Netflix
. - Credit: Courtesy of Kirsty Griffin/Netflix

Courtesy of Kirsty Griffin/Netflix

AND THE PREDICTED NOMINEES ARE:

RANK

FILM

DISTRIBUTOR

PRODUCERS

1

“Belfast”

Focus Features

Laura Berwick, Kenneth Branagh, Becca Kovacik, Tamar Thomas

2

“The Power of the Dog”

Netflix

Emile Sherman, Iain Canning, Roger Frappier, Jane Campion, Tanya Seghatchian

3

“CODA”

Apple Original Films

Philippe Rousselet, Fabrice Gianfermi, Patrick Wachsberger, Jerôme Seydoux

4

“King Richard”

Warner Bros

Tim White, Trevor White, Will Smith

5

“Dune”

Warner Bros

Cale Boyter, Joe Caracciolo Jr, Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve

6

“West Side Story”

20th Century Studios

Kristie Macosko Krieger, Kevin McCollum, Steven Spielberg

7

“Licorice Pizza”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Paul Thomas Anderson, Sara Murphy, JoAnne Sellar, Daniel Lupi

8

“The Tragedy of Macbeth”

Apple Original Films/A24

Joel Coen, Robert Graf, Frances McDormand

9

“Don’t Look Up”

Netflix

Adam McKay, Kevin Messick, Scott Stuber, Betsy Koch, Todd Schulman

10

“Tick, Tick … Boom!”

Netflix

Brian Grazer, Ron Howard, Lin-Manuel Miranda, Julie Oh

NEXT IN LINE

11

“No Time to Die”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Michael G. Wilson, Barbara Broccoli

12

“Being the Ricardos”

Amazon Studios

Todd Black, Jason Blumenthal, Steve Tisch

13

“Nightmare Alley”

Searchlight Pictures

J. Miles Dale, Guillermo del Toro, Bradley Cooper

14

“House of Gucci”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Ridley Scott, Giannina Scott, Kevin J. Walsh, Mark Huffam

15

“Parallel Mothers”

Sony Pictures Classics

Agustín Almodóvar, Pedro Almodóvar

16

“Drive My Car”

Janus Films/Sideshow

Tsuyoshi Gorô, Misaki Kawamura, Osamu Kubota, Sachio Matsushita, Yoshito Nakabe, Keiji Okumura, Jin Suzuki, Akihisa Yamamoto

17

“The Lost Daughter”

Netflix

Charlie Dorfman, Maggie Gyllenhaal, Osnat Handelsman-Keren, Talia Kleinhendler

18

“Spider-Man: No Way Home”

Sony Pictures

Kevin Feige, Amy Pascal

19

“The French Dispatch of the Liberty, Kansas Evening Sun”

Searchlight Pictures

Wes Anderson, Jeremy Dawson, Steven Rales

20

“C’mon C’mon”

A24

Chelsea Barnard, Lila Yacoub, Andrea Longacre-White

OTHER TOP-TIER CONTENDERS

21

“Encanto”

Walt Disney Pictures

Clark Spencer, Yvett Merino

22

“Spencer”

Neon and Topic Studios

Maren Ade, Jonas Dornbach, Janine Jackowski, Juan de Dios Larraín, Pablo Larraín, Paul Webster

23

“The Harder They Fall”

Netflix

Lawrence Bender, Jay-Z, James Lassiter, Jeymes Samuel

24

“Last Night in Soho”

Focus Features

Nira Park, Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Edgar Wright

25

“Flee”

Neon

Monica Hellström, Signe Byrge Sørensen

26

“A Hero”

Amazon Studios

Asghar Farhadi, Alexandre Mallet-Guy

27

“Passing”

Netflix

Nina Yang Bongiovi, Rebecca Hall, Margot Hand, Forest Whitaker

28

“Cyrano”

MGM/United Artists Releasing

Tim Bevan, Eric Fellner, Guy Heeley

29

“The Last Duel”

20th Century Studios

Ridley Scott, Kevin J. Walsh, Jennifer Fox, Nicole Holofcener, Matt Damon, Ben Affleck

30

“Red Rocket”

A24

Sean Baker, Alex Coco, Samantha Quan, Alex Saks, Shih-Ching Tsou

2022 Academy Awards Predictions

2021 Oscars predictions are here.

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, Mar. 27, 2022

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