Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages are Davis’ assessment of the current standings of the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any film or performance. Like any organization or body that votes, each individual category is fluid and subject to change. Predictions are updated every Thursday.
LAST UPDATED: Oct. 3, 2022
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2023 Oscars Predictions: Best Picture
CATEGORY COMMENTARY: We’re still waiting on a few more shoes to drop into the Oscar race that has yet to screen. At the top of the list are James Cameron’s “Avatar: The Way of Water” and Ryan Coogler’s “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever.” Aside from both films being sequels to former Academy Award nominees for best picture, they seem to be the best bets to shake things up after the fall festivals dropped notable frontrunners “The Fabelmans” from Steven Spielberg, “Women Talking” from Sarah Polley and “The Banshees of Inisherin” from Martin McDonagh. Time will tell if the two flicks can live up to the hype.
Also waiting in the wings is Damien Chazelle’s “Babylon,” sporting Oscar’s favorite look – old Hollywood. Other big unknown features include “A Man Called Otto” with Tom Hanks, “She Said” with Carey Mulligan and Zoe Kazan and possibly “Emancipation” with Will Smith (if Apple decides to move forward with a release in December). Despite a report that Apple was eyeing a possible 2022 release for Ridley Scott’s biopic “Napoleon,” with Joaquin Phoenix and Vanessa Kirby, two sources within the streamer have confirmed it will not drop during this current awards season.
Netflix could also add a surprise contender into the fray with “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio,” a dark animated take on the famed story, which will premiere at AFI Film Fest. They also just picked up the Telluride hit doc “Sr.,” which follows Robert Downey Sr., through the eyes of his son, two-time Oscar nominee Robert Downey Jr. (“Chaplin” and “Tropic Thunder”). There’s always hope that the Academy could one day soon, embrace a documentary feature.
With Neon’s “All the Beauty and the Bloodshed” winning the Golden Lion at Venice, the Laura Poitras doc may also find itself in the mix.
To see the ranked predictions for each individual category, visit Variety’s Oscars Hub.
ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:
2023 Academy Awards Predictions
BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | ACTOR | ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP AND HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT
The 95th Oscars ceremony will be held at the Dolby Theatre and televised live on Sunday, March 12, 2022, on ABC.
2022 category winner: “CODA” (Apple Original Films)
About Variety Awards Circuit:
Variety’s unmatched coverage gives its readership unbeatable exposure in print and online, as well as provides inside reports on all the contenders in this year’s awards season races. In addition to predictions, the section includes — Awards Circuit Column, a weekly analysis dissecting the trends and contenders in the race; Awards Circuit Podcast, a weekly series featuring interviews with the top contenders in the awards race and an expert roundtable discussion with Variety’s leading editors and columnists; Awards Circuit Predictions Video Series, a deep dive into specific categories, led by the leading pundits.
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