Oscars Predictions: Best Original Screenplay – Can Mike Mills Make Headway With the Scribes?

·3 min read

Variety's Awards Circuit is home to the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars and Emmys ceremonies from film awards editor Clayton Davis. Following history, buzz, news, reviews and sources, the Oscar and Emmy predictions are updated regularly with the current year's list of contenders in all categories. Variety's Awards Circuit Prediction schedule consists of four phases, running all year long: Draft, Pre-Season, Regular Season and Post Season. The eligibility calendar and dates of awards will determine how long each phase lasts and is subject to change.

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DRAFT>>>PRE-SEASON>>>REGULAR SEASON>>>POST SEASON

2022 OSCARS PREDICTIONS:
BEST ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY

UPDATED: Sept 30, 2021

AWARDS PREDICTION COMMENTARY:

In regards to Gyllenhaal’s debut feature, the dense and heavy material showcases her talents as a filmmaker and storyteller. As we continue to see many of our gifted actresses taking the helm behind the camera — such as Regina King (“One Night in Miami”) or later this year Halle Berry (“Bruised”) – it’s an exciting landscape for interesting stories to be told. “The Lost Daughter” could make inroads in adapted screenplay, with its exploration of themes surrounding motherhood and society’s expectations of a woman’s place in it.

The cast is dynamic, with Academy Award winner Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”) leading the charge. One year after coming close to nabbing her second for “The Father,” she could be a competitive force once again. Similar to her winning turn in “The Favourite,” she’s not a clear leading candidate, especially if the plan is to campaign her co-star Jessie Buckley, who portrays the younger version of Colman’s character, in the supporting actress category.

Mills’ film is not going to appeal to everyone, but I’d be remiss if I didn’t share that this could be the best screenplay written in the last decade, something the writers branch may recognize. With other fall festivals on the docket, word of mouth could grow, similar to when another Phoenix film, “Her,” premiered at New York Film Festival. At the time, I was a skeptic, thinking the Academy couldn’t recognize such a breathtaking achievement by writer and director Spike Jonze. By the end of the season, the movie ran away with original screenplay, and picked up a very impressive six Oscar noms in total. “C’mon C’mon” could follow a similar trajectory.

Oscar nominations voting begins on Thursday, Jan. 27, 2022, and will end on Tuesday, Feb. 1, 2022. The official Academy Awards nominations will be announced on Tuesday, Feb. 8, 2022, with the ceremony taking place on Sunday, March 27, 2022.

Awards Season Calendar (2021-2022)

Parallel Mothers - Credit: Courtesy Sony Pictures Classics
Parallel Mothers - Credit: Courtesy Sony Pictures Classics

Courtesy Sony Pictures Classics

ALL AWARDS CONTENDERS AND RANKINGS:

AWARDS CATEGORY HISTORY (Best Original Screenplay)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood's most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. The most awarded films in Oscar history are "Ben-Hur," "Titanic" and "The Lord of the Rings: The Return of the King" at 11 statuettes. The most nominated films in Academy history are "All About Eve," "Titanic" and "La La Land" at 14. "La La Land" is the only film of the three to have lost best picture. The biggest Oscar "losers," meaning most nominated and walk away with zero awards, are 1977's "The Turning Point" and 1985's "The Color Purple" at 11 each. Woody Allen has the most wins in original screenplay with three and nominations at 16. Charles Brackett, Paddy Chayefsky, Quentin Tarantino and Billy Wilder have all won twice. Federico Fellini is the second most nominated writer with six nominations. The most recent winner is Emerald Fennell for "Promising Young Woman."

2022 Academy Awards Predictions

2021 Oscars predictions are here.

About the Academy Awards (Oscars)

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners are selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). 17 branches are represented within the near 10,000 person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

  • The date for the 94th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 27, 2022

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