Final Oscar Predictions: Animated Feature – ‘Spider-Verse’ Victory Would Prove Campaigning for Awards Still Matters

Variety Awards Circuit section is the home for all awards news and related content throughout the year, featuring the following: the official predictions for the upcoming Oscars, Emmys, Grammys and Tony Awards ceremonies, curated by Variety senior awards editor Clayton Davis. The prediction pages reflect the current standings in the race and do not reflect personal preferences for any individual contender. As other formal (and informal) polls suggest, competitions are fluid and subject to change based on buzz and events. Predictions are updated every Thursday.

Visit the prediction pages for the respective ceremonies via the links below:

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OSCARS | EMMYS | GRAMMYS | TONYS

2023 Oscars Predictions:
Best Animated Feature

Weekly Commentary (Updated March 7, 2024): Hayao Miyazaki’s “The Boy and the Heron” has garnered both the Golden Globes and BAFTA Awards, solidifying its status as a strong contender in the animated feature category. However, what’s intriguing is the absence of Miyazaki and his producer Toshio Suzuki at the award ceremonies, echoing the Academy’s sentiment that one must exhibit a certain level of desire for the honor.

Conversely, the creators of “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” have been omnipresent, propelled by its immense success at the box office. In a year dominated by films like “Oppenheimer,” which secures top accolades and champions the cause for major studios, one can easily envision a similar trajectory for Sony Pictures’ blockbuster.

Both “Heron” and “Spider-Verse” stand on the cusp of achieving significant milestones.

Miyazaki, the sole Asian to clinch victory in this category with “Spirited Away” (2002), could potentially join the ranks of Ang Lee and Robert Lopez as one of the few Asians to triumph at the Oscars once more.

Should “Spider-Verse” emerge victorious, director Kemp Powers would become the second Black individual to claim victory in this category, following in the footsteps of Peter Ramsey, who helmed the first “Spider-Man” movie.

Will Win: “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Amy Pascal)
Could Win: “The Boy and the Heron” (Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki)
Should Win: “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”
Should have been here: “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem” ( Jeff Rowe, Seth Rogen, Evan Goldberg, Kevin Eastman)

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

The 96th Oscars will be held on Sunday, March 10.

And the Nominees Are:

1. “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)
   Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller and Amy Pascal

2. “The Boy and the Heron” (GKids/Toho)
   Hayao Miyazaki and Toshio Suzuki

3. “Robot Dreams” (Neon)
   Pablo Berger, Ibon Cormenzana, Ignasi Estapé and Sandra Tapia Díaz

4. “Elemental” (Pixar)
   Peter Sohn and Denise Ream

5. “Nimona” (Netflix)
   Nick Bruno, Troy Quane, Karen Ryan and Julie Zackary

All Eligible Titles (Alphabetized) **

• “The Amazing Maurice”

• “Blue Giant”

• “The Boy and the Heron”

• “Chang’an”

• “Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget”

• “Deep Sea”

• “Elemental”

• “Ernest & Celestine: A Trip to Gibberitia”

• “The First Slam Dunk”

• “The Inventor”

• “Leo”

• “Lonely Castle in the Mirror”

• “The Magician’s Elephant”

• “Migration”

• “Miraculous: Ladybug & Cat Noir, The Movie”

• “The Monkey King”

• “My Love Affair with Marriage”

• “Nimona”

• “Paw Patrol: The Mighty Movie”

• “The Peasants”

• “Perlimps”

• “Robot Dreams”

• “Ruby Gillman, Teenage Kraken”

• “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse”

• “The Super Mario Bros. Movie”

• “Suzume”

• “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem”

• “They Shot the Piano Player”

• “Titina”

• “Trolls Band Together”

• “Unicorn Wars”

• “Warrior King”

• “Wish”

** Denotes the potential for the film’s release date is not yet confirmed and could change.

2022 category winner: “Guillermo del Toro’s Pinocchio” (Netflix) — Guillermo del Toro, Mark Gustafson, Gary Ungar, Alex Bulkley

Oscars Predictions Categories

BEST PICTURE | DIRECTOR | BEST ACTOR | BEST ACTRESS | SUPPORTING ACTOR | SUPPORTING ACTRESS | ORIGINAL SCREENPLAY | ADAPTED SCREENPLAY | ANIMATED FEATURE | PRODUCTION DESIGN | CINEMATOGRAPHY | COSTUME DESIGN | FILM EDITING | MAKEUP & HAIRSTYLING | SOUND | VISUAL EFFECTS | ORIGINAL SCORE | ORIGINAL SONG | DOCUMENTARY FEATURE | INTERNATIONAL FEATURE | ANIMATED SHORT | DOCUMENTARY SHORT | LIVE ACTION SHORT

About the Academy Awards

The Academy Awards, better known as the Oscars, is Hollywood’s most prestigious artistic award in the film industry. Since 1927, nominees and winners have been selected by members of the Academy of Motion Picture Arts and Sciences (AMPAS). Seventeen branches are represented within the nearly 10,000-person membership. The branches are actors, associates, casting directors, cinematographers, costume designers, directors, documentary, executives, film editors, makeup and hairstylists, marketing and public relations, members-at-large, members-at-large (artists’ representatives), music, producers, production design, short films and feature animation, sound, visual effects and writers.

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