Oscars mystery: How often do the best reviewed movies win Best Picture?
Rotten Tomatoes is often used as an indicator of what movie you want to watch next. A certified fresh score can entice viewers while a rotten grade may make you stay away. But how have Rotten Tomatoes graded Best Picture nominees and winners over the years? And is it always the case that the film with the highest Rotten Tomatoes score wins Best Picture? Or do Oscars voters disagree with critics?
Well, here’s a breakdown of every Best Picture nominee and winner in the last 10 years and their Rotten Tomatoes scores to judge just how often critics and Oscar voters align.
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2023 Best Picture Winner: “Everything Everywhere All at Once” — 93%
Other Nominees:
“All Quiet on the Western Front” — 90%
“Avatar: The Way of Water” — 76%
“The Banshees of Inisherin” — 96%
“Elvis” — 77%
“The Fabelmans” — 92%
“Tár” — 90%
“Top Gun: Maverick” — 96%
“Triangle of Sadness” — 72%
“Women Talking” — 90%
“Everything Everywhere All at Once” won seven Oscars including Picture, Director (for Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert), and three acting awards for Michelle Yeoh, Jamie Lee Curtis, and Ke Huy Quan. However, the film wouldn’t have won Best Picture if we went by Rotten Tomatoes scores. Instead, it would have been a joint win between “The Banshees of Inisherin” and “Top Gun: Maverick.” As it were, the former didn’t win any Oscars despite garnering nine nominations, and Tom Cruise‘s latter won one Oscar — for Best Sound.
2022 Best Picture Winner: “CODA” – 94%
Other Nominees:
“Belfast” — 86%
“Don’t Look Up” — 56%*
“Drive My Car” — 97%
“Dune” — 83%
“King Richard” — 90%
“Licorice Pizza” — 91%
“Nightmare Alley” — 81%
“The Power of the Dog” — 94%
“West Side Story” — 91%
“CODA,” which won three Oscars (the others being Supporting Actor for Troy Kotsur and Adapted Screenplay), was almost the highest-scoring movie in this list of nominees but it was the Japanese movie “Drive My Car” by Ryûsuke Hamaguchi that came away with the best score and should have been the Best Picture winner according to Rotten Tomatoes. Instead, “Drive My Car” won Best International Feature Film. (*By the way, the 56% score of “Don’t Look Up” is the lowest score any Best Picture nominee has received across these last 10 years. Yikes.)
2021 Best Picture Winner: “Nomadland” — 93%
Other Nominees:
“The Father” — 98%
“Judas and the Black Messiah” — 97%
“Mank” — 83%
“Minari” — 98%
“Promising Young Woman” — 90%
“Sound of Metal” — 97%
“The Trial of the Chicago 7” — 89%
“Nomadland” won Best Actress for Frances McDormand and Best Director for Chloé Zhao but there were four other films on this list with better RT scores. “Judas and the Black Messiah” and “Sound of Metal” both scored 97% while “The Father” and “Minari” should have been joint Best Pictures according to these scores. Instead, “The Father” won Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Actor for Anthony Hopkins while “Minari” won Best Supporting Actress for Youn Yuh-jung.
2020 Best Picture Winner: “Parasite” — 99%
Other Nominees:
“Ford v Ferrari” — 92%
“The Irishman” — 95%
“Jojo Rabbit” — 80%
“Joker” — 69%
“Little Women” — 95%
“Marriage Story” — 95%
“1917” — 88%
“Once Upon a Time in Hollywood” — 85%
It’s no surprise that Bong Joon Ho‘s masterpiece was the highest scorer here. With 99%, it’s a near-perfect score and the Oscars agreed — it also won Best Director for Bong, Best Original Screenplay, and Best International Feature Film.
2019 Best Picture Winner: “Green Book” — 77%
Other Nominees:
“Black Panther” — 96%
“BlacKkKlansman” — 96%
“Bohemian Rhapsody” — 60%
“The Favourite” — 93%
“Roma” — 96%
“A Star is Born” — 90%
“Vice” — 65%
“Green Book’s” status as perhaps the most controversial Best Picture winner in recent Oscars history looks ratified here — its score of 77% is the lowest of any Best Picture winner in the last 10 years, despite winning an additional two Oscars (Best Original Screenplay and Best Supporting Actor for Mahershala Ali). Instead, Rotten Tomatoes thinks that there should have been a three-way tie for Best Picture between “Black Panther,” “BlacKkKlansman,” and “Roma.” In reality, the MCU movie won three Oscars (Original Score, Production Design, and Costume Design), Spike Lee‘s joint won Best Adapted Screenplay, and “Roma” won Best International Feature Film, Best Cinematography, and Best Director for Alfonso Cuarón. It was his film that came closest to beating “Green Book.”
2018 Best Picture Winner: “The Shape of Water” — 92%
Other Nominees:
“Call Me By Your Name” — 94%
“Darkest Hour” — 84%
“Dunkirk” — 92%
“Get Out” — 98%
“Lady Bird” — 99%
“Phantom Thread” — 91%
“The Post” — 88%
“Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri” — 90%
Looking back, this may be the best Best Picture lineup in recent Oscars history. Each film is fantastic in its own right but it was “The Shape of Water” that won Best Picture as well as three other Oscars — Best Original Score, Best Production Design, and Best Director for Guillermo del Toro. However, “Call Me By Your Name,” “Get Out,” and “Lady Bird” all scored higher and it was the latter movie that RT thinks BP should have been awarded to. Instead, Greta Gerwig‘s masterpiece came away empty-handed but did land nominations for Original Screenplay and Director (both for Gerwig), Supporting Actress for Laurie Metcalf, and Actress for Saoirse Ronan.
2017 Best Picture Winner: “Moonlight” — 98%
Other Nominees:
“Arrival” — 94%
“Fences” — 92%
“Hacksaw Ridge” — 84%
“Hell or High Water” — 97%
“Hidden Figures” — 93%
“La La Land” — 91%
“Lion” — 84%
“Manchester by the Sea” — 96%
“Moonlight” eventually won Best Picture after that infamous mix-up that incorrectly announced “La La Land” as the winner. And RT agrees that the Oscars made the right choice, despite “La La Land” winning six Oscars in total including Best Director for Damien Chazelle and Best Actress for Emma Stone. “Moonlight” also won Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Supporting Actor for Ali.
2016 Best Picture Winner: “Spotlight” — 97%
Other Nominees:
“The Big Short” — 89%
“Bridge of Spies” — 91%
“Brooklyn” — 97%
“Mad Max: Fury Road” — 97%
“The Martian” — 91%
“The Revenant” — 78%
“Room” — 93%
“Spotlight” won Best Original Screenplay to go with its Best Picture win, but that’s it. However, RT agrees that it should have won BP — but the site also thinks that “Brooklyn” and “Mad Max: Fury Road” should have won alongside it. “Brooklyn” didn’t win any Oscars in reality and was only nominated for three Academy Awards in total (the other two Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Actress for Ronan). Meanwhile, “Mad Max: Fury Road” won a whopping six awards including Best Cinematography and Best Film Editing.
2015 Best Picture Winner: “Birdman” — 91%
Other Nominees:
“American Sniper” — 72%
“Boyhood” — 97%
“The Grand Budapest Hotel” — 92%
“The Imitation Game” — 90%
“Selma” — 99%
“The Theory of Everything” — 80%
“Whiplash” — 94%
This year featured a battle between “Boyhood” and eventual Best Picture winner “Birdman,” which also won Best Cinematography, Best Original Screenplay, and Best Director for Alejandro G. Iñárritu. However, RT thinks neither should have won. Instead, the highest score here was Ava DuVernay‘s “Selma,” which infamously only scored one other bid besides its Best Picture nomination — Best Original Song (which it won, for Common and John Legend‘s “Glory”).
2014 Best Picture Winner: “12 Years a Slave” — 95%
“American Hustle” — 92%
“Captain Phillips” — 93%
“Dallas Buyers Club” — 92%
“Gravity” — 96%
“Her” — 94%
“Nebraska” — 91%
“Philomena” — 91%
“The Wolf of Wall Street” — 80%
Steve McQueen‘s “12 Years a Slave,” which also won Best Adapted Screenplay and Best Supporting Actress for Lupita Nyong’o, was in a tussle with “Gravity” this year for Best Picture. “12 Years a Slave” won but RT thinks that “Gravity” should have been the winner. “Gravity” must have come close — it won a total of seven Oscars including Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, and Best Director for Cuarón.
This list suggests that there is a disconnect between critics and Oscar voters as the two groups have only agreed on Best Picture winners three times in these 10 years — “Spotlight” in 2016, “Moonlight” in 2017, and “Parasite” in 2020. Other than that, there have been some major disagreements. But what does that mean for this year? Well, we haven’t seen many potential Best Picture contenders for Oscars 2024 but, so far, it’s Celine Song‘s “Past Lives” that has stood up tallest with an impressive Rotten Tomatoes score of 98%. That would be enough to win Best Picture in all bar one of the last 10 years (“Parasite” in 2020 being the exception) but let’s see if the movie can survive until next year and snag a Best Picture nomination.
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