Oscars head-scratcher: Why have supporting sweeps become so common?

Tariq Khan
·7 min read
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.
  • Oops!
    Something went wrong.
    Please try again later.

This year’s races for Best Supporting Actor and Best Supporting Actress were over before they started. Robert Downey Jr. in “Oppenheimer” and Da’Vine Joy Randolph in “The Holdovers” took leads in the Gold Derby odds in their respective categories early in the season. They both went on to pick up Golden Globe, Critics Choice, BAFTA and SAG Awards. By the time the Oscars rolled around, there was a “near zero” chance of either of them losing.

In contrast, the lead acting contests provided considerably more suspense. Bradley Cooper in “Maestro,” Paul Giamatti in “The Holdovers” and Cillian Murphy in “Oppenheimer” were all looking strong at different point in the derby, before Murphy really exploded and ultimately won the Best Actor Oscar. And Lily Gladstone in “Killers of the Flower Moon” and Emma Stone in “Poor Things” kept trading the top spot in the Best Actress odds. Gladstone finally reclaimed it in the days leading up to the Oscars, only to see Stone (and her broken dress) steal the prize away from her.

More from GoldDerby

The supporting sweeps by Downey and Randolph beg the question: why have they become so common in recent years? Especially when those were the places that used to give us the biggest shockers? (Like Marisa Tomei in 1992’s “My Cousin Vinny.” Anna Paquin in 1993’s “The Piano.” Juliette Binoche in 1996’s “The English Patient.” James Coburn in 1998’s “Affliction.” And Marcia Gay Harden in 2000’s “Pollock” — to name a few.)

SEEHow does Emma Stone’s Oscar reaction rate on Best Actress shock meter?

There’s no simple or single answer. Every case is unique. However, I think that there are some common reasons. Allow me to present five of the most obvious ones — with prime examples from the past 15 years. And note that my focus is on those supporting players who took all four major precursors (Golden Globe, Critics Choice, BAFTA and SAG) before ultimately accepting the Academy Award.

1. Their performance was the classic scene-stealer.
This has been the most traditional path to a Supporting Oscar. And it’s been around since the award was created in 1936. I could devote an entire article to this … but I won’t. Instead, I’ll cite just a few of my favorites from the 20th century. Jane Darwell in 1940’s “The Grapes of Wrath.” Walter Huston in 1948’s “The Treasure of the Sierra Madre.” Edmond O’Brien in 1954’s “The Barefoot Contessa.” Peter Ustinov in 1960’s “Spartacus.” Ruth Gordon in 1968’s Rosemary’s Baby.” George Burns in 1975’s “The Sunshine Boys.” Louis Gossett Jr. in 1982’s “An Officer and a Gentleman.” Whoopi Goldberg in 1990’s “Ghost.” And Dianne Wiest (Don’t speak!) in 1994’s “Bullets over Broadway.” Performances like those still pop up from time to time. And they often win Oscars. Mo’Nique in 2009’s “Precious.” Christoph Waltz in that same year’s “Inglourious Basterds.” Octavia Spencer in 2011’s “The Help.” Anne Hathaway in 2012’s “Les Miserables.” And J.K. Simmons in 2014’s “Whiplash.” They all delivered performances so unforgettable that they were almost immediately hailed the Oscar frontrunners. It was as if there was nothing and nobody standing in their way. They subsequently went on to whip the competition at every awards event. Nothing “inglourious” about that.

SEEMultiple past Oscar rivals reunited at this year’s ceremony — did you notice?

2. They were excellent in their film — and also considered overdue for the academy’s recognition.
There’s actually just one person whom I’m referring to here. And that’s the late Christopher Plummer, Best Supporting Actor of 2011 for “Beginners.” It’s hard to believe that Captain von Trapp from 1965’s Best Picture “The Sound of Music” had to wait almost half a century before trapping an Oscar for himself. His first nomination arrived with 2009’s “The Last Station.” After losing to the aforementioned Waltz for “Basterds,” Plummer landed a plum role in “Beginners.” Despite the film’s summer release date and lack of any other Oscar noms, Plummer easily squashed his rivals. Not only was he wonderful in a heartwarming role, he was a beloved veteran whom the academy was eager to finally reward. His awards romp for “Beginners” began at the Golden Globes, and culminated with a rousing standing ovation at the Oscars.

3. They had a co-leading role in a high-profile awards contender.
You know the ones I’m talking about. Patricia Arquette in 2014’s “Boyhood.” Viola Davis in 2016’s “Fences.” Mahershala Ali in 2018’s “Green Book.” Brad Pitt in 2019’s “Once Upon a Time in Hollywood.” And Daniel Kaluuya in 2020’s “Judas and the Black Messiah.” Once upon a time … it wasn’t even clear which category they would campaign for. They all went supporting, and sailed through the awards season with unabashed ease. All five were outstanding in their respective films (all Best Picture nominees — “Green Book” an eventual winner.) Had they opted to go lead, many of them might have made the cut (especially Davis, who arguably could have won.) But having so much screen time in pictures popular with the academy undoubtedly benefited all five. Memo to those in borderline lead/supporting roles: if you really want the gold, it’s smart to go supporting. No matter how big a star you are. (Just ask Mr. Pitt.)

SEE He’s just Ken, and we’re just done: Editors slug it out post-Oscars and put a memorable season to bed [WATCH]

4. They started to steamroll after the Golden Globes.
So here’s something that we often wonder. How much influence do the Golden Globes really have? The answer is A LOT. Just look at Allison Janney in 2017’s “I, Tonya” and Sam Rockwell in that same year’s “Three Billboards Outside Ebbing, Missouri.” Neither was initially seen as the Oscar favorite. All eyes were on Laurie Metcalf in “Lady Bird” and Willem Dafoe in “The Florida Project.” The state of the supporting races didn’t change until the Golden Globes. That’s when Janney jumped past Metcalf and Rockwell rose above his foe Dafoe. Janney and Rockwell would then repeat their victories at the Critics Choice, SAG and BAFTA Awards. After all of those, the Oscar results were a foregone conclusion. What would have happened if either had lost at the Globes? (Fortunately for Janney and Rockwell, we’ll never know.)

5. They ended up in lineups without clear alternatives.
Two recent Best Supporting Actresses come to mind. Laura Dern in 2019’s “Marriage Story” and Ariana DeBose in 2021’s “West Side Story.” Were they both outstanding in their respective pictures? Absolutely. Were they undeniable? Not necessarily. But neither one faced any significant threat. Dern hustled the Golden Globe away from Jennifer Lopez in “Hustlers” before she began to dominate. Lopez was later overlooked by the academy, and there was no one strong enough to take down Dern. As for Ariana, she was the only acting nominee to emerge from the highly-touted “West Side Story.” She danced off with the Golden Globe, SAG, BAFTA and Critics Choice prizes. The only person who might have been able to challenge her — Caitriona Balfe in “Belfast,” curiously missed at the Oscars. In short, there was just no one able to depose DeBose. Like Randolph this year, DeBose swept her way to unbridled Oscar joy.

PREDICT the 2024 Emmy nominees through July 17

Make your predictions at Gold Derby now. Download our free and easy app for Apple/iPhone devices or Android (Google Play) to compete against legions of other fans plus our experts and editors for best prediction accuracy scores. See our latest prediction champs. Can you top our esteemed leaderboards next? Always remember to keep your predictions updated because they impact our latest racetrack odds, which terrify Hollywood chiefs and stars. Don’t miss the fun. Speak up and share your huffy opinions in our famous forums where 5,000 showbiz leaders lurk every day to track latest awards buzz. Everybody wants to know: What do you think? Who do you predict and why?

SIGN UP for Gold Derby’s free newsletter with latest predictions

Best of GoldDerby

Sign up for Gold Derby's Newsletter. For the latest news, follow us on Facebook, Twitter, and Instagram.

Click here to read the full article.