Oscars deep dive: Breaking down the madness of the Best Actress race
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This year’s Best Actress Oscar race is perhaps the biggest head-scratcher of all of the main categories, becoming a make-or-break race for the fourth straight year.
It all began when Lily Gladstone surprised pundits with her move up to the lead category for “Killers of the Flower Moon,” then was halted by Emma Stone for “Poor Things” at the Critics Choice Awards (after both won Golden Globes in their respective categories). Stone continued to succeed at the BAFTA Awards after Gladstone was shockingly snubbed. And it seemed that she was on a roll to victory to her second Oscar, only to be stopped in her tracks at the SAG Awards by, you guessed it, Gladstone. This push and pull between the two actresses has created back-and-forth mania over who will ultimately win out, and even though Gladstone has overtaken the lead currently in the combined Gold Derby odds at 10/3 over Stone’s 71/20, she has just as many detractors as Stone does and it is still undecided. Below, let’s break down the pros and cons of each actress and their films as well as certain past races and tea leaves that may help us decide who will ultimately triumph in Best Actress.
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Starting with the perceived frontrunner, Gladstone has had a wild awards season since her announcement to compete in the lead category, and for a while it seemed her days were numbered after losing at Critics Choice and being snubbed for BAFTA, but now she’s turned over a new leaf, having the support of seven Editors and 13 Experts, Top 24 Users and All-Star Top 24 each. With the Globe and SAG Award in her hand, she seems in a good position as only seven performers have nabbed those two distinct prizes without an Oscar victory: Lauren Bacall (“The Mirror Has Two Faces”), Russell Crowe (“A Beautiful Mind”), Renee Zellweger (“Chicago”), Eddie Murphy (“Dreamgirls”), Julie Christie (“Away From Her”), Glenn Close (“The Wife”) and Chadwick Boseman (“Ma Rainey’s Black Bottom”). She has additionally been making the rounds as the first Oscar-nominated actress of Native American descent, and would be the first Indigenous winner of Best Actress, something that is noted to voters’ minds, and perhaps a factor to her SAG win with the most populist, inclusive awards body.
However, her BAFTA miss should not be ignored as only two lead actresses have emerged victorious with the Oscar statue after being left off the nomination list with the British Film Academy (that were eligible that year) since the ceremony began airing before the Oscars: Hilary Swank (“Million Dollar Baby”) and Jessica Chastain (“The Eyes of Tammy Faye”). Swank’s snub was attributed to late screeners for the British bloc, while Chastain had the fortune of none of the BAFTA and Oscar nominees sharing any correlation with each other. But in Gladstone’s case, “Killers of the Flower Moon” was eligible and even though with the new jury voting system at BAFTA, she could not crack the top three lineup, nor was saved by the jury for the final three slots, when her fellow Oscar nominees Stone, Carey Mulligan (“Maestro”) and Sandra Hüller (“Anatomy of a Fall”) got in. Combined with the fact that “Killers of the Flower Moon” will likely not win anything else on Oscar night, it all rests on Gladstone’s shoulders, who arguably does not have the notoriety and stature of recent Best Actress winners, similar to Austin Butler (“Elvis”) last year, who also went home empty-handed in a tight lead acting race (as well as the movie).
The support of the film is not something Stone has to worry about as “Poor Things” racked up 11 Oscar bids and has the potential to succeed in various categories such as Best Costume Design, Best Production Design and Best Makeup & Hairstyling, which could prove vital for Stone’s victory, particularly the last one as that category has recently been a bellwether for the lead acting categories. Furthermore, Stone has a great statistic as five lead actresses were able to overcome their SAG loss with a BAFTA win to secure their Oscar trophy: Nicole Kidman (“The Hours”), Marion Cotillard (“La Vie en Rose”), Meryl Streep (“The Iron Lady”), Olivia Colman (“The Favourite”) and Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”).
But one thing Stone has lost is momentum, which mirrored last year when Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All At Once”) won the SAG against Cate Blanchett (“Tár”), who was winning all the precursors, and took the Oscar at the end. For the second consecutive year, the SAG Awards were the last televised precursor, held after the BAFTAs and smack in the middle of Oscar voting. And the fact that Stone already has an Oscar for “La La Land” is something voters know and might work against her, similar to Blanchett who had already pocketed two Oscars prior. Even though that didn’t stop McDormand from obtaining her third lead trophy, she was also in a Best Picture winner, the same scenario that helped Yeoh last year. In this case, neither Gladstone or Stone’s films are predicted for the top prize, so this is a true coin flip. Those detractors for Stone look to be more detrimental as she only has the support of four Editors and 10 Experts, Top 24 and All-Star Top 24 users each, but this race could easily be decided if “Poor Things” does well in the technical categories and if she has the support of the broader Academy. Either way, this category will be a true nail-biter until the envelope is opened on Sunday, March 10.
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