Oscars afterglow: How many of this year’s acting nominees will be back in the running next year?

Jacob Sarkisian
·6 min read
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Picking up an Oscar nomination (or better yet a win) can often lead to subsequent nominations in the following years. After Eddie Redmayne won Best Actor for “The Theory of Everything” in 2015, he picked up a second nomination the year later for “The Danish Girl.” And Willem Dafoe earned consecutive nominations in 2018 and 2019 for his work on”The Florida Project” and “At Eternity’s Gate.”

The Oscars afterglow is a real thing. So which of this year’s nominated stars could theoretically feel the benefit of this trend? We’ve combed through each of the 20 nominees’ next projects to see who could follow up their bid this year with a potential nomination next year. After all, it’s never too late to start thinking about the next Academy Awards, right?

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Brendan Fraser (won Best Actor for “The Whale”)
Out of the projects on his plate, “Killers of the Flower Moon” would be the likeliest to pick him up a consecutive nomination. The Martin Scorsese picture is sure to be a hot thing come next awards season, although it stars Leonardo DiCaprio and Robert De Niro so any potential afterglow bid would come in the supporting actor category for Fraser.

Austin Butler (nominated for Best Actor for “Elvis”)
Butler is the breakout star of this year, wowing audiences with his dedicated turn in “Elvis.” He’ll be featured in “Dune: Part Two” next year. The first movie won six Oscars and was nominated for Best Picture, so “Part Two” will likely have the same pedigree. However, it didn’t rack up any acting noms so Butler may have a hill to climb on this front. He will also star in Jeff Nichols‘ “The Bikeriders,” which will follow a Midwestern motorcycle club and the lives of its members. This one could well have some awards pedigree with the likes of Tom Hardy, Jodie Comer, and Michael Shannon co-starring with him so could a consecutive Best Actor bid be on the cards?

Colin Farrell (nominated for Best Actor for “The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Farrell will reunite with his “The Lobster” co-star Rachel Weisz for Todd Solondz‘s “Love Child,” a quirky picture about a young boy trying to reshape his mother’s life. Farrell could be in with a shout for Best Supporting Actor.

Paul Mescal (nominated for Best Actor for “Aftersun”)
Mescal has the widest selection of exciting projects out of anyone on this list.He will appear opposite “The Crown’s” Josh O’Connor in the World War I drama “The History of Sound.” If it releases in time, could this be the next WWI movie to strike it big at the Oscars after “1917” and “All Quiet on the Western Front?” Mescal could benefit if so. He will also star in “Foe” — a climate-change sci-fi movie from Garth Davis — and “Strangers” — a fantasy drama about a writer who discovers his long-dead parents are still alive — so there are plenty of chances for the actor to pick up a consecutive Best Actor bid. (And Oscar alert for 2043: He just landed a role in Richard Linklater‘s adaptation of the musical “Merrily We Roll Along,” which is shooting over the next two decades.)

Michelle Williams (nominated for Best Actress for “The Fabelmans”)
The Oscars love a biopic. Williams will star in one next year with “Fever” — she’ll play Peggy Lee. She could follow the likes of Ana de Armas (who portrayed Marilyn Monroe in “Blonde”) to earn a biopic Best Actress bid.

Barry Keoghan (nominated for Best Supporting Actor for “The Banshees of Inisherin”)
Keoghan will star alongside Carey Mulligan in “Saltburn,” the next movie from the Oscar-winning Emerald Fennell. Her last movie — “Promising Young Woman” — landed Mulligan a Best Actress nomination. Keoghan could reap the benefits this time.

Brendan Gleeson (nominated for Best Supporting Actor for “The Banshees of Inisherin”)
This is a big one — “Joker: Folie à Deux.” While all of the awards attention will likely go to Joaquin Phoenix again (who won Best Actor for the first film, “Joker”) as well as Lady Gaga for her turn as Harley Quinn — don’t rule Gleeson out. If the film is as popular as the first movie, Gleeson could get swept up along for the ride and potentially land a Best Supporting Actor bid.

Brian Tyree Henry (nominated for Best Supporting Actor for “Causeway”)
“Flint Strong” will tell the true story of Claressa ‘T-Rex’ Shields (played by Ryan Destiny), who became the first woman in her country’s history to win an Olympic gold medal in boxing. While Destiny may attract the majority of awards attention, Henry could crop up in the Best Supporting Actor conversation in the same way Paul Giamatti did for “Cinderella Man.”

Hong Chau (nominated for Best Supporting Actress for “The Whale”)
Chau will star in not one but two prestige projects. First is “AND,” the next project from “The Favourite” director Yorgos Lanthimos. Little is known of the plot but it will star Emma Stone and Willem Dafoe, so the Oscar pedigree is clearly there. Perhaps another Best Supporting Actress nomination could play out for Chau. Next up is “Asteroid City” — Wes Anderson‘s new flick. Anderson’s films often struggle for acting nominations, though, and Chau will be part of a typically massive star-studded cast as is the norm for Anderson’s movies. So this is less likely.

Stephanie Hsu (nominated for Best Supporting Actress for “Everything Everywhere All at Once”)
Hsu will star in “Joyride,” a movie that follows four Asian-American friends traveling through Asia in search of their mothers. This could be an emotional, coming-of-age rollercoaster so Hsu could be given another chance to shine as brightly as she did in “Everything Everywhere All at Once.” Could she even be upgraded to a Best Actress nomination next awards season?

Maybe we’re getting ahead of ourselves (most definitely) but it’s fun to think about these things already, right?

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