Oscars: 5 reasons why Cillian Murphy (‘Oppenheimer’) will win Best Actor

Jeffrey Kare
·6 min read
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As of this writing the combined predictions of Gold Derby users lean towards Cillian Murphy (“Oppenheimer”) with 17/5 odds in this year’s Oscar race for Best Actor. Meanwhile, Paul Giamatti (“The Holdovers”) is close behind in second place with 69/20 odds. However, the former may have more going for him. Here are five reasons why I think Murphy is the favorite.

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1. He’s starring in the Best Picture frontrunner

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“Oppenheimer” is expected to be quite a juggernaut on Oscar night. It’s currently predicted to take home eight accolades: Best Picture, Best Director (Christopher Nolan), Best Supporting Actor (Robert Downey Jr.), Best Adapted Screenplay, Best Cinematography, Best Film Editing, Best Score and Best Sound. With that in mind, it’s possible that Murphy could be carried along in the sweep. He’s the face of the whole thing and carries the film on his shoulders. It probably wouldn’t be as successful without his central performance.

While starring in the Best Picture winner doesn’t always guarantee a lead acting prize, it’s still usually helpful. Previous examples of winners include Russell Crowe (“Gladiator”), Hilary Swank (“Million Dollar Baby”), Colin Firth (“The King’s Speech”), Jean Dujardin (“The Artist”), Frances McDormand (“Nomadland”) and Michelle Yeoh (“Everything Everywhere All at Once”) just last year. If voters love “Oppenheimer” as much as we’re expecting them to, how can they not award Oppenheimer himself?

SEEOscars scorecard: ‘Oppenheimer’ heads into BAFTAs as the clear frontrunner

2. He’s playing a real person

Murphy plays J. Robert Oppenheimer, the real-life theoretical physicist who was pivotal in developing the first nuclear weapons. Almost every year at least one of the four acting awards at the Oscars goes to a biographical performance. Best Actor alone has gone to a number of them this century alone. Consider Jamie Foxx (“Ray”), Phillip Seymour Hoffman (“Capote”), Sean Penn (“Milk”), Daniel Day-Lewis (“Lincoln”), Eddie Redmayne (“The Theory of Everything”), Gary Oldman (“Darkest Hour”), Rami Malek (“Bohemian Rhapsody”) and Will Smith (“King Richard”).

Austin Butler was expected to continue that trend in this category last year for his portrayal of Elvis Presley in “Elvis,” yet came up short to Brendan Fraser (“The Whale”) in a fictional role. Although in that scenario, Butler might have been too new on the scene to have been taken seriously by voters. Plus “Elvis” wasn’t a dominant force during the season like “Oppenheimer” currently is. So on paper, Murphy may have a better shot than Butler had. Not to mention that if you look up photos of the real J. Robert Oppenheimer, you’d be astonished by how much Murphy resembled him in the film.

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3. He’s the only non-American in his category

The other four Best Actor contenders — Bradley Cooper (“Maestro”), Colman Domingo (“Rustin”), the aforementioned Giamatti, and Jeffrey Wright (“American Fiction”) — are from the US, while Murphy is Irish. Thus there’s no other foreign-born actor in contention who could potentially pull votes away from him.

Previous examples of non-Americans triumphing over four Yankees in an acting race include Catherine Zeta-Jones (“Chicago”), Rachel Weisz (The Constant Gardener”), Daniel Day-Lewis (“There Will Be Blood”), Penélope Cruz (“Vicky Christina Barcelona”), Heath Ledger (“The Dark Knight”), Kate Winslet (“The Reader”), Christoph Waltz (“Django Unchained”) and Daniel Kaluuya (“Judas and the Black Messiah”). While not as strong of a factor as being the only American in an acting lineup, Murphy could still be an ideal option for the international bloc of the academy to rally around.

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4. The other films up for Best Actor aren’t as widely supported

“Oppenheimer” is the film in this category with the broadest support overall from the academy. “Rustin” only showed up here and nowhere else. “American Fiction” slightly overperformed by showing up in Best Supporting Actor (Sterling K. Brown) and Best Score, but Wright doesn’t seem to have enough heat to win; he didn’t win at the Golden Globe or Critics Choice Awards and was snubbed by the BAFTAs. “Maestro” may have seven bids overall, but as with Cooper’s previous filmmaking effort, “A Star is Born,” he failed to crack the Best Director lineup.

“The Holdovers” did get the five nominations it was expected to. Although it did miss out on a Best Director bid for Alexander Payne. That’s kind of surprising given that each of his previous three Best Picture nominees — “Sideways,” “The Descendants” and “Nebraska” — saw him recognized by the director’s branch. So that could be a sign of weakness for the film. Da’Vine Joy Randolph is heavily favored to take Best Supporting Actress; is it really strong enough to win two acting prizes?

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5. He’s also a threat to win at SAG

So far this season Murphy recently won the BAFTA. Prior to that he managed to win the Golden Globe for Best Film Drama Actor while Giamatti took Best Film Comedy/Musical Actor. At Critics Choice the following week, “Oppenheimer” won eight awards, the most of that night, yet Best Actor went to Giamatti. That doesn’t automatically mean we should expect the same outcome at the Oscars, though. In 2016 “La La Land” also won eight Critics Choice Awards, but Emma Stone lost Best Actress to Natalie Portman (“Jackie”). That didn’t stop Stone from sweeping throughout the rest of the season: she won SAG, BAFTA and Oscar.

Last year “Everything Everywhere All at Once” won five Critics Choice Awards including Best Picture, yet Michelle Yeoh lost Best Actress to Cate Blanchett (“Tár”). Blanchett’s winning streak continued until Yeoh prevailed at SAG as part of a sweep for her movie. Then Yeoh won the Oscar. For the second year in a row SAG will be the last major televised precursor prior to the Oscars. Murphy is currently favored to win the lead actor prize there with 17/5 odds. If he pulls through, that would give him much needed momentum during final Oscar voting.

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