Oscars 2024: First Blind Predictions Include Biopics, Musicals and Return of the Streamers

What better way to officially close the door on an exhausting awards season than to look ahead –blindly — to what studios and production companies could bring to the screen in 2023.

As Variety‘s awards coverage transitions into the Emmy season, this annual tradition (albeit highly inaccurate due to release shifts and other varying factors) creates some fun and wonder as Cannes looms two months away.

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One first impression is that the streamers are back with a vengeance with an arsenal of big names and titles aiming to take the trophy from reigning best-picture champ A24 with “Everything Everywhere All at Once.”

Apple Original Films has a duo of master auteurs on deck. First up is Martin Scorsese, whose “Killers of the Flower Moon” be revealed at the Cannes Film Festival with Leonardo DiCaprio, Jesse Plemons and Lily Gladstone in tow. In addition, the still Oscar-less Ridley Scott will helm “Napoleon” (formerly called “Kitbag”), which stars Joaquin Phoenix and Vanessa Kirby.

Netflix, as expected, is brimming with awards-bait projects. Many cinephiles and music lovers are excited about Bradley Cooper’s sophomore directorial effort “Maestro,” about Leonard Bernstein, in which Cooper stars with Carey Mulligan. Excitement is also mounting for David Fincher’s thriller “The Killer” with Michael Fassbender and George C. Wolfe’s biopic “Rustin” with Colman Domingo. Still undated, tentative titles could include the next adaptation of an August Wilson play, “The Piano Lesson,” with Samuel L. Jackson and John David Washington rumored to be starring.

Between Amazon Studios and the acquisition of MGM, the streaming giant will steer “Promising Young Woman” Oscar-winning writer Emerald Fennell’s next project “Saltburn” and the directorial debut of Rachel Morrison, the first woman to be nominated for best cinematography, with her drama “Flint Strong,” which stars Brian Tyree Henry, and is written by “Moonlight” helmer Barry Jenkins.

Warner Bros, celebrating its 100th year, has undergone multiple changes over the past few years. Still, the studio could have tentpole moneymakers on their hands with Greta Gerwig’s “Barbie,” Denis Villeneuve’s sci-fi sequel “Dune: Part Two” and Blitz Bazawule’s musical adaptation of “The Color Purple.”

Also hitting 100 this year, Walt Disney Pictures and its subsidiaries (20th Century Studios, Marvel Studios, Pixar, Searchlight Pictures) have some promising titles on tap.

Continuing the messaging of animation deserving more respect, it’s been over a decade since Pixar’s “Toy Story 3” (2011) made the best picture lineup. Enter “Elemental,” which will likely tug at the heartstrings. The animation studio will also drop “Wish,” its 62nd feature, from “Frozen” director Chris Buck around the Thanksgiving holiday.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Oscars predictions in all categories.

On the Searchlight front, the long-awaited “Next Goal Wins” from Taika Waititi will finally release featuring Fassbender in the lead role. At the same time, Yorgos Lanthimos’ “Poor Things” sounds like another mouthwatering period piece/sci-fi hybrid with Emma Stone (who also produces), Willem Dafoe and Mark Ruffalo. Searchlight already seems to have a potential best actor contender with Jonathan Majors in “Magazine Dreams” after picking it up at Sundance.

Angela Bassett made history for the MCU with “Black Panther: Wakanda Forever” nabbing an acting nom. Marvel will forge forward with the (final?) installment of “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” and the hotly anticipated “The Marvels” with Brie Larson and Teyonah Parris.

Speaking of superhero movies, Sony’s animated sequel “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” is on the agenda under the guidance of genius writers and producers Phil Lord and Chris Miller. To say “I can’t wait” would be a gross understatement.

Universal Pictures will steer “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” to what we can expect will be an obscene amount of box office receipts. Under the DreamWorks banner, another “Troll” movie is also on the horizon, which could be a revitalization like the Oscar-nominated “Puss in Boots: The Last Wish” this season.

In addition to animation, Universal will juggle Christopher Nolan’s star-studded period piece “Oppenheimer,” which could finally bring some overdue recognition to the talented Cillian Murphy, plus the final installment of “Fast X.”

Paramount Pictures will maneuver through another Tom Cruise vehicle, “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” and the still-untitled Bob Marley biopic from “King Richard” helmer Reinaldo Marcus Green. The latter is dated for early January 2024, but a qualifying run could be in order if it has the goods.

Independent studios will surely be in the mix.

Coming off “Triangle of Sadness” nabbing three Oscar noms, including best picture, we’ll surely hear of some acquisitions from distributor Neon. I’ll be keeping a close eye on Duke Johnson’s “The Actor,” an adaptation of the Donald E. Westlake novel that follows a New York actor who loses his memory after an attack in 1950s Ohio. The under-appreciated André Holland will play the pivotal role. Among Neon’s other potential entries are the thriller “Mothers’ Instinct” with Jessica Chastain and “Longlegs” with Nicolas Cage.

Focus Features came up short with Cate Blanchett for “Tár,” but has some interesting features on the horizon, notably Wes Anderson’s new joint “Asteroid City” and a mini “Sideways” (2004) reunion with director Alexander Payne and actor Paul Giamatti in “The Holdovers.”

Sony Pictures Classics could have any number of movies that could hit such as “A Little Prayer” with David Strathairn, which could go the way of “Living” star Bill Nighy after debuting at Sundance. In addition, the indie division picked up the Cate Blanchett-produced “Shadya” with Zar Amir Ebrahimi and will hopefully release “Freud’s Last Session” with Anthony Hopkins playing Sigmund Freud.

Fresh off the sweep of all major Oscar categories, A24 has conceivable entrants such as Celine Song’s “Past Lives,” which received raves at Sundance. The studio will also bring another Elvis Presley story to the forefront, this time through his wife’s eyes, with “Priscilla” starring Cailee Spaeny.

Bleecker Street may have something with “Golda” with Helen Mirren, but I’m most interested in seeing the still-untitled new movie from Mike Leigh.

IFC Films is fielding the critical hits “R.M.N.” from Cristian Mungiu and “Monica” from Andrea Pallaoro, which both played the fall festival circuit but are releasing this year.

Read: Variety’s Awards Circuit for the latest Emmy predictions in all categories.

Then there are the movies not yet ready to confirm distribution or release dates, but still sound promising based on source material and attached talent — such as Ava DuVernay’s “Caste,” an adaptation of the book “Caste: The Origins of Our Discontents” by Isabel Wilkerson. The project stars “King Richard” Oscar nominated actress Aunjanue Ellis.

Know this when looking at the predictions below: Nobody knows anything. We haven’t seen any of these movies and won’t return to this page until well into the summer.

So for now, watch movies and look forward to another great year of cinema.

** Release dates, studios and credits are not final and are subject to change. All listed films and performers are listed in alphabetical order.

*** = PREDICTED WINNER

March 17, 2023

Best Picture

• “The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures) — Jay-Z, James Lassiter, Tendo Nagenda, Jeymes Samuel

• “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) — Quincy Jones, Scott Sanders, Steven Spielberg, Oprah Winfrey

• “Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics) — Alan Greisman, Hannah Leader, Tristan Lynch, Rick Nicita, Robert Stillman, Meg Thomson

• “The Holdovers” (Focus Features) — Mark Johnson, Bill Block, David Hemingson

• “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films) — Dan Friedkin, Martin Scorsese, Bradley Thomas, Daniel Lupi

• “Maestro” (Netflix) — Fred Berner, Bradley Cooper, Amy Durning, Emma Tillinger Koskoff, Kristie Macosko Krieger, Todd Phillips, Martin Scorsese, Steven Spielberg ***

• “Past Lives” (A24) — David Hinojosa, Christine Vachon, Pamela Koffler

• “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Emma Thomas, Charles Roven, Christopher Nolan

• “Saltburn” (Amazon Studios) — Emerald Fennell, Josey McNamara, Tom Ackerley, Margot Robbie

• “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures) — Avi Arad, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal, Christina Steinberg

Alternates: “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures) — Craig Gillespie, Aaron Ryder, Teddy Schwarzman; “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) – Cale Boyter, Tanya Lapointe, Patrick McCormick, Mary Parent, Denis Villeneuve; “Elemental” (Pixar) — Denise Ream; “Ferrari” (STX Films) — Monika Bacardi, Thomas Hayslip, Andrea Iervolino, John Lesher, Michael Mann, Thorsten Schumacher, Lars Sylvest, P.J. van Sandwijk; “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) — Yorgos Lanthimos, Emma Stone, Ed Guiney, Andrew Lowe

Director

• Blitz Bazawule — “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)

• Bradley Cooper — “Maestro” (Netflix) ***

• Emerald Fennell — “Saltburn” (Amazon Studios)

• Jeymes Samuel — “The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures)

• Celine Song — “Past Lives” (A24)

Alternates: Michael Mann, “Ferrari” (STX Films); Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures); Rachel Morrison, “Flint Strong” (Amazon/MGM); Alexander Payne, “The Holdovers” (Focus Features); Martin Scorsese, “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films)

Actor

• Paul Giamatti — “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)

• André Holland — “The Actor” (Neon) ***

• Jonathan Majors — “Magazine Dreams” (Searchlight Pictures)

• Lakeith Stanfield — “The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures)

• David Strathairn, “A Little Prayer” (Sony Pictures Classics)

Alternates: Bradley Cooper, “Maestro” (Netflix); Leonardo DiCaprio, “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films); Colman Domingo, “Rustin” (Netflix); Anthony Hopkins, “Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics); Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)

Actress

• Fantasia Barrino — “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) ***

• Annette Bening — “Nyad” (Netflix)

• Greta Lee — “Past Lives” (A24)

• Carey Mulligan — “Maestro” (Netflix)

• Emma Stone — “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

Alternates: Emily Blunt, “Pain Hustlers” (Netflix), Ryan Destiny, “Flint Strong” (Amazon/MGM); Sandra Hüller, “The Zone of Interest” (A24); Margot Robbie, “Barbie” (Warner Bros.); Cailee Spaeny, “Priscilla” (A24);

Supporting Actor

• Colman Domingo — “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)

• Samuel L. Jackson — “The Piano Lesson” (Netflix) ***

• Brian Tyree Henry — “Flint Strong” (Amazon/MGM)

• Wagner Moura — “Civil War” (A24)

• Jesse Plemons — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films)

Alternates: Willem Dafoe, “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures); Matthew Goode, “Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics); Corey Hawkins, “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.); Ryan Gosling, “Barbie” (Warner Bros.); Barry Keoghan, “Saltburn” (Amazon Studios)

Supporting Actress

• Danielle Brooks — “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)

• America Ferrera — “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures)

• Lily Gladstone — “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films/Paramount Pictures) ***

• Taraji P. Henson — “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)

• Da’Vine Joy Randolph — “The Holdovers” (Focus Features)

Alternates: Penélope Cruz, “Ferrari” (STX Films); Aunjanue Ellis, “The Nickel Boys” (Amazon/MGM); Jodie Foster, “Nyad” (Netflix); Claire Foy, “Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures); Vanessa Kirby, “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films); Moon Seung-ah, “Past Lives” (A24)

Original Screenplay

• “Elemental” (Pixar) — Brenda Hsueh

• “The Holdovers” (Focus Features) – David Hemingson

• “Maestro” (Netflix) – Bradley Cooper, Josh Singer ***

• “Past Lives” (A24) – Celine Song

• “Saltburn” (Amazon Studios) – Emerald Fennell

Alternates: “Asteroid City” (Focus Features) — Wes Anderson, Roman Coppola; “Fair Play” (Netflix) — Chloe Domont; “The Iron Claw” (A24) — Sean Durkin; “Magazine Dreams” (Searchlight Pictures) — Elijah Bynum; “Trans Los Angeles” (No U.S. Distribution) — Kase Peña

Adapted Screenplay

• “Dumb Money” (Sony Pictures) — Rebecca Angelo, Lauren Schuker Blum (based on the book by Ben Mezrich)

• “Flint Strong” (Amazon Studios/MGM) — Barry Jenkins (based on “T-Rex” by Zackary Canepari, Drea Cooper)

• “Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics) – Mark St. Germain (based on the play by Germain)

• “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films) – Eric Roth, Martin Scorsese (based on the book by David Grann) ***

• “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures) – Phil Lord, Chris Miller, Dave Callaham (based on characters created by Stan Lee)

Alternates: “Ferrari” (STX Films) — Michael Mann, Troy Kennedy Martin (based on “Enzo Ferrari – The Man and the Machine” by Brock Yates); “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Christopher Nolan (based on “American Prometheus” by Kai Bird, Martin J. Sherwin); “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) — Tony McNamara (based on “Poor Things” by Alasdair Gray); “Strangers” (Searchlight Pictures) – Andrew Haigh (adapted from the novel “Strangers” by Taichi Yamada); “The Supremes at Earl’s All-You-Can-Eat” (Searchlight Pictures) – Tina Mabry, Gina Prince-Bythewood (based on the novel by Edward Kelsey Moore);

Animated Feature

• “Elemental” (Pixar) — Peter Sohn, Denise Ream

• “How Do You Live” (GKids) — Hayao Miyazaki, Toshio Suzuki

• “The Super Mario Bros. Movie” (Illumination/Universal Pictures) — Aaron Horvath, Michael Jelenic, Chris Meledandri, Shigeru Miyamoto

• “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures) — Joaquin Dos Santos, Kemp Powers, Justin K. Thompson, Avi Arad, Phil Lord, Christopher Miller, Amy Pascal, Christina Steinberg ***

• “Wish” (Walt Disney Pictures) — Chris Buck, Fawn Veerasunthorn

Alternates: “Chicken Run: Dawn of the Nugget” (Netflix); “Escape from Hat” (Netflix); “Nimona” (Netflix); “Ruby Gillman: Teenage Kraken” (DreamWorks Animation); “Spellbound” (Apple Original Films); “Teenage Mutant Ninja Turtles: Mutant Mayhem” (Paramount Pictures)

Production Design

• “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — Sarah Greenwood (production designer), Katie Spencer (set decorator)

• “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) — Paul D. Austerberry (production designer), Larry Dias (set decorator)

• “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) — Patrice Vermette (production designer), Shane Vieau (set decorator)

• “Maestro” (Netflix) — Kevin Thompson (production designer), Rena DeAngelo (set decorator) ***

• “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Ruth De Jong (production designer), Claire Kaufman (set decorator)

Alternates: “The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures); “Freud’s Last Session” (Sony Pictures Classics); “Ferrari” (STX Films); “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures); “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

Cinematography

• “The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures) — Rob Hardy

• “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) — Greig Fraser

• “Flint Strong” (Amazon/MGM) — Ring Yang

• “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films) — Rodrigo Prieto ***

• “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Hoyte van Hoytema

Alternates: “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) — Dan Laustsen; “The Killer” (Netflix) — Erik Messerschmidt; “Maestro” (Netflix) — Matthew Libatique; “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) — Robbie Ryan; “Saltburn” (Amazon Studios) — Linus Sandgren

Costume Design

• “Barbie” (Warner Bros.) — Jacqueline Durran

• “The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures) — Antoinette Messam

• “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) — Francine Jamison-Tanchuck ***

• “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) — Jacqueline West

• “Maestro” (Netflix) — Mark Bridges

Alternates: “Ferrari” (STX Films) — Massimo Cantini Parrini; “A Haunting in Venice” (20th Century Studios) — Sammy Sheldon; “The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” (Lionsgate) — Trish Summerville; “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films) — Janty Yates; “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) — Holly Waddington

Film Editing

• “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) — Jon Poll

• “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) — Joe Walker

• “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films) — Thelma Schoonmaker

• “Maestro” (Netflix) — Michelle Tesoro ***

• “Saltburn” (Amazon Studios) — Victoria Boydell

Alternates: “The Holdovers” (Focus Features) — Kevin Tent; “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Jennifer Lame; “Past Lives” (A24) — Keith Fraase; “Spider-Man: Across the Spiderverse” (Sony Pictures) — Mike Andrews; “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures) — Yorgos Mavropsaridis

Makeup and Hairstyling

• “Barbie” (Warner Bros.)

• “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.)

• “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)

• “The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” (Lionsgate)

• “Maestro” (Netflix) ***

Alternates: “Ferrari” (STX Films); “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios); “The Marvels” (Marvel Studios); “Napoleon” (Apple Original Films); “Poor Things” (Searchlight Pictures)

Sound

• “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) ***

• “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.)

• “Fast X” (Universal Pictures)

• “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures)

• “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)

Alternates: “The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures); “Elemental” (Pixar); “John Wick Chapter 4” (Lionsgate); “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films); “Maestro” (Netflix); “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures)

Visual Effects

• “Cocaine Bear” (Universal Pictures)

• “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) ***

• “The Little Mermaid” (Walt Disney Pictures)

• “The Marvels” (Marvel Studios)

• “Rebel Moon” (Netflix)

Alternates: “Guardians of the Galaxy Vol. 3” (Marvel Studios); “The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” (Lionsgate); “John Wick: Chapter 4” (Lionsgate); “Kraven the Hunter” (Sony Pictures); “Mission: Impossible – Dead Reckoning Part One” (Paramount Pictures)

Original Score

• “Asteroid City” (Focus Features) — Alexandre Desplat

• “Elemental” (Pixar) — Thomas Newman ***

• “Oppenheimer” (Universal Pictures) — Ludwig Göransson

• “Spellbound” (Apple Original Films) — Alan Menken

• “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures) — Daniel Pemberton

Alternates: “Chevalier” (Searchlight Pictures) — Kris Bowers; “Dune: Part Two” (Warner Bros.) — Hans Zimmer; “The Holdovers” (Focus Features) — Mark Orton; “Killers of the Flower Moon” (Apple Original Films) — Robbie Robertson; “Next Goal Wins” (Searchlight Pictures) — Michael Giacchino

Original Song

• “The Color Purple” (Warner Bros.) — To be announced

• “The Hunger Games: The Ballad of Songbirds and Snakes” (Lionsgate) — To be announced

• “Spellbound” (Apple Original Films) — To be announced

• “Trolls Band Together” (DreamWorks Animation) — To be announced

• “Untitled Diane Warren Documentary Project” (No U.S. Distribution) — To be announced ***

(Possible) Alternates: “The Book of Clarence” (Sony Pictures); “Elemental” (Pixar); “Maestro” (Netflix); “Saltburn” (Amazon Studios); “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” (Sony Pictures)

Documentary Feature

• “The Eternal Memory” (MTV Documentary Films) — Maite Alberdi, Rocío Jadue, Juan de Dios Larraín, Pablo Larraín ***

• “Going to Mars: The Nikki Giovanni Project” (Confluential Films) — Joe Brewster, Tommy Oliver, Michèle Stephenson

• “Little Richard: I Am Everything” (Magnolia Pictures) — Lisa Cortes, Caryn Capotosto, Robert Friedman, Liz Yale Marsh

• “Still: A Michael J. Fox Movie” (Apple Original Films) — Davis Guggenheim, Will Cohen, Jonathan King, Annetta Marion

• “Yellow Door: Looking for Director Bong’s Unreleased Short Film” (Netflix) — Lee Hyuk-rae

Alternates: “20 Days in Mariupol” (No U.S. Distribution); “The Disappearance of Shere Hite” (NBC News Studios); “Stamped from the Beginning” (Netflix); “The Deepest Breath” (Netflix); “Untitled UEFA Euro 2020 final documentary” (Netflix)

A version of this prediction commentary first appeared in Variety Awards Circuit section on March 17. Visit awards prediction archives here.

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