Oscars 2024: How closely did Golden Globes, BAFTAs, Critics Choice and SAG Awards match the academy?

Daniel Montgomery
·6 min read
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With the 96th Oscars done and dusted, we can now reflect on lessons learned throughout the awards season. Specifically, which precursors most closely matched — and perhaps had the greatest influence on — the motion picture academy. Let’s look at the four top televised or streamed awards shows.

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GOLDEN GLOBES

These awards, revamped with an expanded voting body after years of controversy involving the small and insular Hollywood Foreign Press Association, don’t have most of the craft categories that the Oscars have, so we’re mostly looking at above-the-line influence here. And since they have separate awards for musical/comedy films and drama films, they have extra chances to influence awards voters. All in all, these matched the Oscar winners almost perfectly. The one place they didn’t agree was in the race for international film, where the Globe winner, “Anatomy of a Fall,” wasn’t eligible for the Oscar because France chose not to submit it for consideration.

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Best Film Drama: “Oppenheimer” — won the Oscar

Best Film Drama Actor: Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer” — won the Oscar

Best Film Drama Actress: Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon” — did not win the Oscar

Best Film Comedy/Musical: “Poor Things” — did not win the Oscar

Best Film Comedy/Musical Actor: Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers” — did not win the Oscar

Best Film Comedy/Musical Actress: Emma Stone, “Poor Things” — won the Oscar

Best Film Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer” — won the Oscar

Best Film Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers” — won the Oscar

Best Film Director: Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer” — won the Oscar

Best Film Screenplay: “Anatomy of a Fall” — won the Oscar

Best Animated Feature: “The Boy and the Heron” — won the Oscar

Best Film Not in the English Language: “Anatomy of a Fall” — not eligible for the Oscar

Best Score: “Oppenheimer” — won the Oscar

Best Song: “What Was I Made For?” from “Barbie” — won the Oscar

SEEHe’s just Ken, and we’re just done: Editors slug it out post-Oscars and put a memorable season to bed [WATCH]

CRITICS CHOICE AWARDS

These awards, handed out by the hundreds of journalists in the Critics Choice Association, were hit-and-miss this year if you were trying to use these to predict the Oscars. But they, like pretty much everybody else, agreed that “Oppenheimer” was the best film of the year, and they gave us our first head-to-head matchup between Lily Gladstone and Emma Stone for Best Actress, which went the way the Oscars did, with Stone winning.

Best Picture: “Oppenheimer” — won the Oscar

Best Director: Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer” — won the Oscar

Best Actor: Paul Giamatti, “The Holdovers” — did not win the Oscar

Best Actress: Emma Stone, “Poor Things” — won the Oscar

Best Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer” — won the Oscar

Best Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers” — won the Oscar

Best Adapted Screenplay: “American Fiction” — won the Oscar

Best Original Screenplay: “Barbie” — competed at the Oscars as an adapted script instead

Best Cinematography: “Oppenheimer” — won the Oscar

Best Costume Design: “Barbie” — did not win the Oscar

Best Hair and Makeup: “Barbie” — was not nominated at the Oscars

Best Film Editing: “Oppenheimer” — won the Oscar

Best Production Design: “Barbie” — did not win the Oscar

Best Visual Effects: “Oppenheimer” — was not nominated at the Oscars

Best Score: “Oppenheimer” — won the Oscar

Best Song: “I’m Just Ken” from “Barbie” — did not win the Oscar

Best Animated Feature: “Spider-Man: Across the Spider-Verse” — did not win the Oscar

Best Foreign Language Film: “Anatomy of a Fall” — not eligible for the Oscar

SEEWes Anderson thanks team and his chance meeting with Owen Wilson in Oscars acceptance remarks from Germany

BAFTA AWARDS

Now here’s where things get interesting. The British academy disagreed with the Oscars last year in all of the top eight categories: Picture, Director, the four acting races and the two writing races. But this year, mysteriously, the two groups agreed on absolutely every award they had in common except for Best Visual Effects, where the BAFTA winner (“Poor Things“) wasn’t nominated at the Oscars, and the Oscar winner (“Godzilla Minus One“) wasn’t nominated at the BAFTAs. So does this mean we should use the BAFTAs to predict all of next year’s Oscars? Impossible to say for sure when the last two years have given such opposite guidance.

Best Picture: “Oppenheimer” — won the Oscar

Best Director: Christopher Nolan, “Oppenheimer” — won the Oscar

Best Actor: Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer” — won the Oscar

Best Actress: Emma Stone, “Poor Things” — won the Oscar

Best Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer” — won the Oscar

Best Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers” — won the Oscar

Best Adapted Screenplay: “American Fiction” — won the Oscar

Best Original Screenplay: “Anatomy of a Fall” — won the Oscar

Best Cinematography: “Oppenheimer” — won the Oscar

Best Costume Design: “Poor Things” — won the Oscar

Best Film Editing: “Oppenheimer” — won the Oscar

Best Makeup and Hair: “Poo Things” — won the Oscar

Best Production Design: “Poor Things” — won the Oscar

Best Score: “Oppenheimer” — won the Oscar

Best Sound: “The Zone of Interest” — won the Oscar

Best Visual Effects: “Poor Things” — not nominated for the Oscar

Best Film Not in the English Language: “The Zone of Interest” — won the Oscar

Best Animated Feature: “The Boy and the Heron” — won the Oscar

Best Documentary Feature: “20 Days in Mariupol” — won the Oscar

SEEWhat’s next for the 2023 Oscar winners?

SAG AWARDS

Only five awards to analyze here since the Oscars don’t have a category for stunts — get on that, academy! And the top SAG Award for best ensemble cast doesn’t line up neatly with the best film of the year, so we can’t always expect this group to be predictive of Oscar’s Best Picture. This year, though, the best cast and the best film did line up, with “Oppenheimer” winning here and at the Oscars. Where the SAG Awards led many of us pundits astray — myself included — was picking Lily Gladstone over Emma Stone. Since the SAG Awards lined up with the Oscars 100% last year, that led many of us to believe the Oscars would similarly want to make history by awarding a Native American woman for the first time. Alas, it was not to be.

Best Film Ensemble: “Oppenheimer” — won the Best Picture Oscar

Best Film Actor: Cillian Murphy, “Oppenheimer” — won the Oscar

Best Film Actress: Lily Gladstone, “Killers of the Flower Moon” — did not win the Oscar

Best Film Supporting Actor: Robert Downey Jr., “Oppenheimer” — won the Oscar

Best Film Supporting Actress: Da’Vine Joy Randolph, “The Holdovers” — won the Oscar

PREDICTthe 2024 Emmy nominations

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