2024 Oscars: Best Supporting Actress Predictions

Nominations voting is from January 11-16, 2024, with official Oscar nominations announced January 23, 2024. Final voting is February 22-27, 2024. And finally, the 96th Oscars telecast will be broadcast on Sunday, March 10 and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT. We update predictions through awards season, so keep checking IndieWire for all our 2024 Oscar picks.

The State of the Race

Now that most of the 2023 contenders have screened for critics, the Best Supporting Actress race has become extremely tight. First reactions to “The Color Purple,” a musical adaptation of the same Alice Walker novel that Steven Spielberg made into a film that got 11 Oscar nominations, has confirmed the long-held suspicion that Danielle Brooks is a likely nominee come March.

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Best known for her scene-stealing performance in “Orange Is the New Black,” the 34-year-old actress actually received a Tony nomination for playing the character Sofia, also known as the role that served as Oprah Winfrey’s cinematic debut, on Broadway in the 2015 revival of “The Color Purple” musical. While Brooks nails Sofia’s iconic monologue, the incorporation of music adds a whole new dimension that builds upon her world-famous predecessor’s work.

Having Winfrey, an executive producer of the film, next to her on the campaign trail should help her chances as well, akin to how Rita Moreno was on hand to support Ariana DeBose before winning this category for the same role in the remake of “West Side Story.” Taraji P. Henson, an Oscar nominee for “The Curious Case of Benjamin Button,” is also not one to count out as showstopper Shug Avery in “The Color Purple.”

Still on the rise is Da’Vine Joy Randolph for her performance in “The Holdovers,” which has done steady business in its limited release. With the SAG strike finally over, the actors have swarmed Los Angeles, finally able to publicly receive love for their acclaimed performances. Randolph is one star voters are now falling in love with, after being enamored by her heartrending turn in the Alexander Payne dramedy.

Respective “Oppenheimer” and “Barbie” stars Emily Blunt and America Ferrera are finally allowed to take a victory lap as well for their contributions to the Barbenheimer phenomenon, but may see challenges from actresses like “Nyad” star Jodie Foster or “Ferrari” star Penélope Cruz, who are seen as the best part of their films that received more mixed reviews. “Saltburn” star Rosamund Pike, and now “Napoleon” star Vanessa Kirby also fit into a similar mold, but provide more fun to their films.

Contenders are listed in alphabetical order, below. No actor will be deemed a frontrunner until I have seen the film.

Frontrunners:
Emily Blunt (“Oppenheimer”)
Danielle Brooks (“The Color Purple”)
Penélope Cruz (“Ferrari”)
Jodie Foster (“Nyad”)
Da’Vine Joy Randolph (“The Holdovers”)

Contenders:
Juliette Binoche (“The Taste of Things”)
Viola Davis (“Air”)
America Ferrera (“Barbie”)
Claire Foy (“All of Us Strangers”)
Anne Hathaway (“Eileen”)
Taraji P. Henson (“The Color Purple”)
Sandra Hüller (“The Zone of Interest”)
Vanessa Kirby (“Napoleon”)
Julianne Moore (“May December”)
Rosamund Pike (“Saltburn”)

Long Shots:
Erika Alexander (“American Fiction”)
Halle Bailey (“The Color Purple”)
Patricia Clarkson (“Monica”)
Scarlett Johansson (“Asteroid City”)
Rachel McAdams (“Are You There God? It’s Me, Margaret”)
Carey Mulligan (“Saltburn”)
Niecy Nash-Betts (“Origin”)
Cara Jade Myers (“Killers of the Flower Moon”)
Florence Pugh (“Oppenheimer”)
Issa Rae (“American Fiction”)

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