Oscar winner predictions, including the tight Actor, Actress, Supporting Actress categories

It received top honors from the Screen Actors Guild, the Director Guild of America, and the Producers Guild of America. No movie has won all three and not taken home the Best Picture Oscar. For that reason, and others, "Everything Everywhere All at Once is going to win," EW awards correspondent Dave Karger proclaims on the new episode of The Awardist podcast.

That movie's directors, Daniel Kwan and Daniel Scheinert, as well as supporting star Ke Huy Quan also seem to be locks at this point, the latter of which has won every major award except the BAFTA (that went to The Banshees of Inisherin's Barry Keoghan).

"The momentum is so behind Ke that I just can't imagine this going anywhere else," EW editor in chief Patrick Gomez says on the podcast. "Something we've also discussed here is just how much these awards acceptance speeches can matter because it endears them as people to us just as much as their performances do. And he's just knocked it out of the park time and time again."

A24 / Marvel Studios / Warner Bros. Pictures

While a surprise is always possible in those three, anticipation is already high for the envelopes to be opened for lead actor and actress and supporting actress, where the "race" has narrowed to basically two nominees in each category: Elvis' Austin Butler and The Whale's Brendan Fraser for actor; TÁR's Cate Blanchett and EEAAO's Michelle Yeoh for actress; and Black Panther: Wakanda Forever's Angela Bassett and EEAAO's Jamie Lee Curtis in supporting.

"I'm going with Austin Butler now and I don't feel confident on it," admits Dave, who explains how Oscar winners have more closely matched BAFTA than SAG winners over the past five years. "Whoever wins best actor, I think they're also going to win best makeup. So if The Whale wins best makeup, then [Brendan Fraser will] win best actor. If Elvis wins best makeup, then he'll win best actor. I think it's going to go hand in hand like it did with Gary Oldman for The Darkest Hour or Meryl Streep and The Iron Lady."

As for lead actress, despite Yeoh's wins from NBR, the Golden Globes (Comedy/Musical), SAG, and Indie Spirits, "I'm still predicting Cate Blanchett just because it's a spectacular performance, the likes of which we very rarely see," Dave says of the TÁR star, who's won at the Golden Globes (Drama), Critics Choice Awards, and BAFTAs. "It's a high-wire act that she did. It's phenomenal."

The match-up between Bassett and Curtis seems to be a toss-up. "Whether it's Angela Bassett or Jamie Lee Curtis... It'll be this, essentially, lifetime achievement prize," says Dave. "I just feel like there's more overall love for Everything Everywhere All at Once and that's going to lead to [Jamie] winning. Although Angela Bassett still has a great shot and it would be a lovely moment if she won." Adds Patrick: "I'm still holding out that Angela's going to take it here."

Listen to the latest episode of The Awardist (below), where we also predict winners for original and adapted screenplay, animated feature, and documentary. The 95th Oscars are Sunday, March 12 at 8 p.m. ET / 5 p.m. PT on ABC.

Check out more from EW's The Awardist, featuring exclusive interviews, analysis, and our podcast diving into all the highlights leading up to all the major award shows.

If you are an Entertainment Union or Guild Member, please click here to participate in a brief, 4-question poll on behalf of our team at EW. 

Related content:

• Black Panther: Wakanda Forever's Angela Bassett, our latest Oscars predictions, and more in EW's The Awardist

• Everything we know about the 2023 Oscars — including celebrity presenters, performances, pre-shows, and more

• See the 2023 Oscar nominees strike a pose for their class photo