Oscar upset warning: ‘Barbie’ can win Best Picture, says IMDb film editor Keith Simanton

“Barbie” is poised to pull off a jaw-dropping upset in the Oscar race for Best Picture, according to IMDb film editor Keith Simanton. Yes, he concedes that most other pro pundits who make predictions at Gold Derby pick “Oppenheimer” to romp, but beware. Keith has one of the most accurate track records among the many Experts who’ve made award predictions with us through the years.

In our fascinating chat (watch video), Keith acknowledges that “Barbie” underperformed when Oscar nominations were announced. (Most Oscarologists were flabbergasted by the omissions of director Greta Gerwig and superstar Margot Robbie). However, Keith reminds us how outraged Oscar voters once rallied around “Argo” after they snubbed its director Ben Affleck.

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SEEMargot Robbie breaks silence on ‘Barbie’ Oscars snub

There’s a lot of secret support out there for “Barbie,” he insists. “I think what’s intriguing to me obviously is what I’ve heard from just about everybody (who are) extremely upset” about the ‘Barbie’ snubs.” Like many other film industry chiefs, Keith feels strongly that the Oscars need to make a special point of supporting the big popcorn hits like “Barbie” (it was the #1 film in the U.S. and internationally in 2023) at a time when Oscar voters seem to prefer more artsy-indie contenders like “Nomadland” and “Coda.” Nowadays movie theater attendance still hasn’t rebounded back up to pre-Covid levels. Can the industry be saved as a profitable business?

Keith is optimistic. “This is my favorite cinema image from last year,” he says while holding up a photo (right) on his smart phone of a giant garbage containers overstuffed with empty popcorn buckets and soda cups and discarded ticket receipts. “Those are the trash bins outside of the AMC Theater where, on Tuesday night, I was going to see a preview of ‘Haunted Mansion,’ and every trash bin was like that outside of ‘Barbie’ and ‘Oppenheimer.’ But, let’s face it, ‘Barbie’ was a big portion of that. If we really want to still have that communal experience of going to a theater and watching film, these things have to happen. These exhibitors have to pay rent, for gosh sake. In addition to tickets, the’ve got to sell some popcorn and some soda. So God bless ‘Barbie.’ I know this has been kind of in the zeitgeist and I kind of hope it happens, which is the whole ‘Argo’ effect.”

Go to Gold Derby’s Lobby to make your predictions for Oscars, SAG, BAFTA and more. We’ll send you an email with your score results soon after each awards event.

See all of Keith’s Oscar predictions here. Compare his ranking for Best Picture with those of other Oscarologists at Gold Derby here. Click here to make your own predictions. Makes changes as often as you wish up until a few hours before the Oscar ceremony airs on March 10. After the show, we’ll send you an email to inform you how you scored and where you rank in our leaderboards.

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